Chile

Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Chile  / Riesgos climáticos y vulnerabilidades de Chile

Chile is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks, including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, droughts, floods, landslides, wildfires, heatwaves, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, glacier retreat, water scarcity, and desertification. Its long Pacific coastline, seismic and volcanic setting, steep Andean terrain, arid and semi-arid regions, glacier-dependent watersheds, and exposure of critical infrastructure increase the scale and complexity of disaster risk. Climate change is intensifying these vulnerabilities through declining precipitation, prolonged drought, rising temperatures, wildfire expansion, reduced snow and glacier storage, hydrological stress, and increasing pressure on agriculture, water supply, mining, hydropower, ecosystems, urban settlements, transport corridors, and coastal communities.

Chile is exposed to a highly complex climate and multi-hazard risk profile due to its location along the Pacific Ring of Fire, long coastline, Andean mountain system, arid northern regions, drought-prone central valleys, wildfire-prone south-central landscapes, glacier-fed watersheds, and concentration of population, infrastructure, agriculture, mining, ports, and energy systems in hazard-prone areas. Key hazards include earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, droughts, floods, landslides, wildfires, heatwaves, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, glacier retreat, water scarcity, and desertification. UNDRR notes that Chile’s location in the Ring of Fire and proximity to major tectonic plates exposes it to earthquakes and volcanic activity, while climate-related hazards are becoming increasingly important for infrastructure resilience. (UNDRR)

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Chile’s risk profile combines geophysical, hydrometeorological, cryospheric, coastal, and ecosystem-related hazards. The country is among the most earthquake- and tsunami-exposed countries in the world because of its location along active subduction zones, and its volcanic chain adds further risks from eruptions, lahars, ashfall, and associated disruption. The 2010 magnitude 8.8 earthquake and tsunami caused severe damage to buildings, bridges, highways, ports, and public infrastructure; UNDRR reports that damage cost roughly US$30 billion, around 18% of Chile’s GNP. (UNDRR)

At the same time, Chile faces intensifying climate-related risks. Drought, floods, landslides, wildfires, heatwaves, and water scarcity increasingly interact with infrastructure exposure, ecosystem degradation, urban expansion, and sectoral demand for water. PreventionWeb’s 2025 Chile Disaster Management Reference Handbook identifies earthquakes and wildfires as major hazards and emphasizes the need for robust early warning systems, inclusive disaster risk reduction, and resilience for vulnerable populations, including Indigenous communities, women, and people with disabilities. (PreventionWeb)

2. Climate change as a risk multiplier

Climate change is increasing Chile’s exposure to water stress, drought, wildfire, flood, heat, glacier, and coastal risks. Since 1961, Chile’s precipitation has declined at an overall rate of about 26 mm per decade, with particularly important reductions in central and southern zones. The IEA reports that Chile experienced a severe mega-drought during 2010–2015, with major consequences for water resources, record-low reservoir levels in some areas, and a 70% increase in the area affected by forest fires. (IEA)

Future climate projections point to further precipitation decline. Under a low-emissions scenario, average precipitation is projected to decrease by about 6% by the end of the century, while under a high-emissions scenario the decline could reach 16% nationally, with some regions exceeding 30% reductions compared with pre-industrial levels. This has major implications for drinking water, irrigation, hydropower, mining, ecosystems, and urban resilience. (IEA)

3. Key vulnerabilities

Drought and water security:
Water scarcity is one of Chile’s most strategic climate vulnerabilities. Declining rainfall, reduced snowpack, glacier retreat, groundwater stress, competing water demands, and prolonged drought affect households, agriculture, mining, hydropower, ecosystems, and urban water supply. Central Chile, including the Santiago metropolitan region and agricultural valleys, is especially exposed to chronic water stress.

Wildfire vulnerability:
Wildfire risk is rising in central and south-central Chile due to heat, drought, vegetation stress, land-use change, and expanding wildland-urban interfaces. Wildfires threaten lives, housing, forests, biodiversity, agricultural land, power networks, transport routes, and air quality. The growth of wildfire risk also creates cascading impacts on health systems, emergency response capacity, livelihoods, and ecosystem services.

Flood and landslide vulnerability:
Despite long-term drying trends, extreme rainfall can produce flash floods, river flooding, debris flows, landslides, and road blockages, especially in steep Andean terrain, dry or degraded catchments, urban drainage systems, and communities located along rivers or unstable slopes. UNDRR describes how heavy rainfall after prolonged drought caused rapid runoff and flooding in 2023, affecting around 22,000 people, blocking roads, and isolating communities. (UNDRR)

Earthquake, tsunami, and volcanic vulnerability:
Seismic and tsunami risk remains central to Chile’s disaster-risk profile. Housing, ports, bridges, roads, schools, hospitals, power systems, telecommunications, water networks, and industrial infrastructure all require continuous risk-informed planning, retrofitting, emergency preparedness, and business-continuity planning. Volcanic eruptions can also affect agriculture, water quality, tourism, transport, and communities exposed to ashfall, lahars, and volcanic debris flows.

Energy and hydropower vulnerability:
Chile’s energy system is exposed to changing temperature and precipitation patterns. Hydropower is sensitive to streamflow, runoff, snowpack, glacier melt, and reservoir availability. The IEA notes that hydropower accounted for 23.2% of electricity generation in 2022, and that declining precipitation and runoff may reduce hydropower output over time, increasing pressure on power-system resilience. (IEA)

Coastal and marine vulnerability:
Chile’s long Pacific coastline is exposed to sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge, tsunamis, port disruption, coastal flooding, saltwater intrusion, fisheries impacts, and risks to coastal settlements. Coastal infrastructure, ports, fisheries, tourism assets, and low-lying settlements require stronger coastal-zone risk management and nature-based adaptation.

Glacier and mountain-system vulnerability:
Glacier retreat, reduced snow storage, warming mountain environments, and changing runoff patterns affect long-term water security, hydropower, agriculture, ecosystems, and mountain hazards. In Andean regions, glacier and snowpack changes can also increase risks from glacial lake outburst floods, debris flows, slope instability, and seasonal water shortages.

4. Sector-specific risk summary

5. Social vulnerability

The most vulnerable groups include low-income urban households, informal settlements, rural communities, smallholder farmers, Indigenous peoples, older persons, children, people with disabilities, women-headed households, outdoor workers, and communities located in drought-prone, wildfire-prone, flood-prone, coastal, seismic, volcanic, or mountain-hazard zones. Vulnerability is highest where exposure overlaps with weak housing, limited savings, insecure water access, poor insurance coverage, limited mobility, and constrained access to early warning and recovery support.

6. Priority resilience needs

Chile’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, earthquake and tsunami preparedness, wildfire risk management, drought monitoring, water-security planning, resilient infrastructure, hydrological forecasting, coastal-zone adaptation, glacier and mountain-risk monitoring, climate-smart agriculture, ecosystem restoration, heat-health action plans, risk-informed land-use planning, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation.

Chile’s National Climate Change Adaptation Plan aims to strengthen national adaptation capacity by improving knowledge of climate impacts and vulnerability, supporting planning to reduce negative climate impacts, and coordinating adaptation actions across sectors and administrative levels. (PreventionWeb)

El Servicio Nacional de Prevención y Respuesta ante Desastres, SENAPRED (www.senapred.cl )

El Servicio Nacional de Prevención y Respuesta ante Desastres queda a cargo de un Director Nacional, quien será su jefe superior. Existirá en cada región una Dirección Regional del Servicio Nacional de Prevención y Respuesta ante Desastres, a cargo de un Director Regional. (The National Disaster Prevention and Response Service is headed by a National Director, who will be its highest-ranking official . Each region will have a Regional Directorate of the National Disaster Prevention and Response Service, headed by a Regional Director.)

HISTORY

The National Service for Disaster Prevention and Response, SENAPRED, is the technical body of the State established by Law 21.364 ,  originally created as the National Emergency Office of the Ministry of the Interior and Public Security – ONEMI, through Decree Law No. 369 of 1974; in charge of planning and coordinating public and private resources destined for the prevention and attention of emergencies and disasters of natural origin or caused by human action, providing to the ministries, delegations, regional governments, municipalities and Civil Protection agencies at the national, regional, provincial and communal level, permanent management models and plans for the prevention and management of emergencies, disasters and catastrophes.

Likewise, in order to fulfill its legal mandate, SENAPRED will be responsible for mobilizing, within the parameters established by the State, the available resources from both the public and private sectors to avoid or mitigate the potential impact of a risk situation, emergency or catastrophe.

MISSION

To lead a continuous, collaborative and participatory process together with the members of the National System for Disaster Prevention and Response and the communities, to promote Disaster Risk Management throughout the population and the national territory. 

VISION

To be by 2030 a recognized and trusted institution that territorially promotes the comprehensive approach to disaster risk management to make Chile a more prepared, safe and resilient country.  

SERVICE OBJECTIVES

• Strategic  ( SEE FORM A1 ).

Improve monitoring capabilities through institutional and resource strengthening to provide timely alerts to the public. 

Increase joint actions with technical agencies of SINAPRED aimed at improving inter-institutional coordination during the mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery phases. 

Increase the participation of municipalities, citizens and social organizations in planning, education and preparedness instances to reduce disaster risk, incorporating the gender and rights approach. 

• Institutional Management

Improve institutional capacity by adopting an approach focused on innovation, technology, specialized training, and knowledge networks with academia, in order to modernize service management and meet the challenges of the environment.

Increase SENAPRED’s participation in national and international coordination forums, as well as with the private sector, aimed at strengthening its strategic role in disaster risk management.

STRATEGIC FOCUS AND OBJECTIVES

IDENTIFICATION OF GOODS AND/OR SERVICES TO THE NATIONAL DISASTER PREVENTION AND RESPONSE SYSTEM (citizens and/or users):

*This definition does not exclude the other activities, goods and services that SENAPRED develops and provides as part of its functions.

NATIONAL POLICY FOR DRR

The National Policy for Disaster Risk Reduction (PNRRD) is in accordance with the international commitments made by the State of Chile and the need to establish the guiding framework that strengthens Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in the country by 2030, being defined as the instrument that guides political actions and decisions, through guidelines and directives from an integral perspective, that contribute to the sustainable development of the country in the short, medium and long term.

It is composed of a set of principles, cross-cutting approaches, priority axes and strategic objectives, implemented through its respective National Strategic Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction (PENRRD, 2020-2030), which addresses gaps identified from previous processes and considers the territorial particularities and diversity of the communities, through the execution of priority actions stemming from the guidelines established in said policy.

Mid-term evaluation of the National Policy for DRR

In accordance with the provisions of Law No. 21,364, the evaluation of the progress status of the National Policy for DRR five years after implementation is made available. This work was carried out through a public competition, conducted by an evaluation entity during the first half of 2025, through the Regional Technical Cooperation (RGT4252) of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) “Support for the implementation of decarbonization strategies”.

To view the document, click  here.

ORGANIZATION CHART

DIRECCION DE GESTION DE RIESGOS DE DESASTRES

– National Director: Alicia Cebrián López

Alicia Cebrián López is a social worker from the Metropolitan Technological University and holds a diploma in Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction from the Pontifical Catholic University of Valparaíso and in Gender Theories, Development and Public Policies from the University of Chile.

She has more than 15 years of experience in Disaster Risk Management at the Ministry of the Interior and Public Security, having served as Head of the Risk and Emergency Management Unit and National Coordinator of Firefighters, in addition to having participated in various emergencies such as the eruption of the Chaitén volcano in 2008 and the floods in the Atacama Region in 2015.

At the time of her appointment as National Director, she held the position of Deputy Director of Disaster Risk Reduction, after having joined ONEMI in 2020 as Head of the Civil Protection Division through a Public Senior Management process.

EMERGENCY OPERATIONS OFFICE

The Emergency Operations office will be responsible for keeping the response prepared and coordinating municipal action in the event of emergencies and/or disasters in the commune in an efficient and effective manner.

The Emergency Operations office will have the following functions:

1. Keep the directives and procedures for managing emergency situations at the community level up to date.

2. Keep the municipality’s risk maps updated for different destructive events

3. To coordinate municipal operations or actions in the event of emergencies and/or natural or man-made disasters

4. To prevent and mitigate adverse or destructive effects in emergencies and disasters

5. Coordinate and direct preventive and corrective actions, anticipating foreseeable emergency situations

6. To provide a swift and efficient response to emergency and relief situations caused by climatic phenomena, earthquakes and/or terrestrial disturbances that may affect the community in general or population groups within it.

7. Investigate the causes of each disaster or adverse event and the severity of its impact in order to correct or mitigate any unsafe actions or conditions detected.

8. Keep up-to-date records of items that make up the emergency stockpile

9. Keep the contact register of the entities that make up the Civil Protection and Emergency System up to date.

10. Keep the Shelter Plan updated and prepare the premises for sheltering victims, providing food and heating, and ensuring their health and hygiene.

11. Establish protocols to control the entry and exit of materials and assets from the facilities designated for this purpose

12. Maintain an operational emergency communications system for the transmission of information from entities that make up the Civil Protection System

13.  Collaborate in the updating and/or development of the Community Emergency Plans for specific events

14. Collect, maintain and report statistics on different destructive events at the community level

15. Coordinate with response agencies during emergencies

16. Perform other functions entrusted to him/her by the Mayor or the head of the Directorate

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