Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its low-lying coastal geography, extensive estuaries, mangrove ecosystems, island communities, high coastal population concentration, poverty, weak infrastructure, and dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods. The country faces growing risks from coastal flooding, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, riverine flooding, heavy rainfall, drought, shortened and irregular rainy seasons, rising temperatures, heatwaves, storms, forest fires, and climate-sensitive disease risks. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities by increasing coastal inundation, damaging rice fields and anti-salt dikes, disrupting cashew and livestock production, degrading roads and infrastructure, increasing water and food insecurity, and exposing poor coastal and rural communities to repeated shocks. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, coastal protection, mangrove restoration, saltwater-intrusion management, climate-resilient agriculture, resilient infrastructure, child-sensitive social protection, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation is essential to reduce losses and protect Guinea-Bissau’s development gains.

Guinea-Bissau is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its low-lying coastal geography, estuaries, mangrove systems, Bijagós Archipelago, high dependence on rainfed agriculture, fisheries, cashew production, weak infrastructure, poverty, and exposure of communities and productive assets along the coast. Key hazards include coastal flooding, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, riverine flooding, heavy rainfall, drought, rising temperatures, shortened or irregular rainy seasons, storms, forest fires, and climate-sensitive health risks. The World Bank identifies Guinea-Bissau as among the countries most vulnerable to coastal flooding and erosion, shortened wet seasons, rising temperatures, desertification, heatwaves, and unpredictable rainfall patterns. (World Bank)

Vanishing shores: This is the impact of rising sea levels in Guinea-Bissau

This is the rising sea levels impact in Guinea-Bissau | World Economic Forum

How Flooding Affects Water Quality in Guinea-Bissau 

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Guinea-Bissau’s risk profile is dominated by coastal, hydrometeorological, agricultural, and ecosystem-related hazards. Coastal flood hazard is classified as high, meaning potentially damaging waves are expected to flood the coast at least once in the next 10 years in exposed areas. (Think Hazard) UNDRR’s disaster risk profile for Guinea-Bissau specifically examines flood and drought risk under current and future climate scenarios, confirming that both hazards are central to the country’s disaster-risk profile. (UNDRR)

Almost 80% of Guinea-Bissau’s population is located along the coastline, where communities face increasing risks from coastal erosion and flooding. The country’s coastal geography is highly intricate, with around 270 km of coastline, many inlets, and the Bijagós Archipelago, which includes 88 islands, 21 of which are inhabited.

2. Climate change as a development risk multiplier

Climate change is a major development risk for Guinea-Bissau because it directly affects agriculture, infrastructure, settlements, livelihoods, food security, and poverty. The World Bank estimates that climate change could reduce GDP per capita by up to 7% by 2050 compared with the baseline and push 200,000 additional people into extreme poverty. (World Bank)

Projected climate stressors include rising temperatures, rainfall reduction or unpredictability, shortened wet seasons, and increasing flood and coastal erosion impacts. These changes are expected to affect crops, livestock, productive infrastructure, human settlements, and poor households most severely. (World Bank)

3. Coastal vulnerability, sea-level rise, and saltwater intrusion

Coastal vulnerability is one of Guinea-Bissau’s most critical risk dimensions. Due to low elevation and sea-level rise, the country is exposed to saline water intrusion, acidification, loss of coastal land, and potential loss of islands and coastal areas. UNDP also identifies coastal communities as a key priority for resilience-building, with a dedicated project designed to strengthen adaptive capacity and climate resilience in vulnerable coastal areas. (UNDP Adaptation)

Sea-level rise and high tides are already critical for coastal rice production. Guinea-Bissau’s updated NDC notes that rice crops are vulnerable to irregular rainfall and sea-level rise, especially where saltwater invasion affects mangrove rice fields and damages anti-salt dikes. (UNFCCC)

4. Agriculture, food security, and livelihood vulnerability

Agriculture is the backbone of Guinea-Bissau’s economy and livelihoods. The World Bank reports that agriculture contributes 30–50% of GDP, generates more than 90% of export revenue, and is the primary source of income for 85% of the population. Cashew and rice are especially important, with raw cashew nuts covering 46% of cultivated area and paddy rice 23%. (World Bank)

The main climate impacts on the agro-livestock sector include irregular rainfall, shifts in the timing and intensity of the rainy season, rising temperatures, and submersion of agricultural land from sea-level rise. Livestock is affected by higher temperatures and reduced rainfall through water scarcity, declining pasture availability, and reduced milk and meat production, which can also increase competition between farmers and pastoralists. (UNFCCC)

5. Flood, drainage, and infrastructure vulnerability

Flooding affects settlements, roads, agriculture, schools, health services, and markets, especially during periods of heavy rainfall and storm events. The World Bank warns that climate change is expected to exacerbate flood events and increase damage and disruption to Guinea-Bissau’s road network. (World Bank)

Urban and peri-urban areas, including Bissau, face additional risk from drainage limitations, weak solid-waste management, informal settlement growth, low-lying land, and poor road infrastructure. These risks can generate cascading impacts on mobility, market access, emergency response, health, education, and livelihoods.

6. Children, health, and social vulnerability

Children and poor households face high climate vulnerability. UNICEF reports that about two-thirds of Guinea-Bissau’s land area and approximately 47% of the child population, around 470,000 children, live in areas with coastal flood risk; around 70,000 children are at high risk of riverine flooding. UNICEF also notes that rice, fish, and cashew nuts are highly vulnerable to climate impacts, with major implications for food security, poverty, and child nutrition.

Climate hazards can also increase health risks through contaminated water, diarrheal disease, respiratory illness, poor sanitation, heat stress, malnutrition, and disruption of health services. UNDP notes that storms and heavy rainfall from July to September increasingly cause floods, affecting agricultural productivity and increasing diarrheal and respiratory diseases.

7. Sector-specific vulnerability summary

8. Social vulnerability

The most vulnerable groups include coastal communities, island populations, smallholder farmers, rice growers, cashew-dependent households, fishing communities, pastoralists, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, poor urban households, and communities living in flood-prone or erosion-prone areas. Vulnerability is highest where climate exposure overlaps with poverty, weak housing, limited savings, weak infrastructure, low insurance coverage, and limited access to early warning and recovery support.

9. Priority resilience needs

Guinea-Bissau’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, coastal flood forecasting, community-based warning dissemination, sea-level-rise and erosion monitoring, mangrove restoration, anti-salt dike rehabilitation, climate-resilient rice production, drought monitoring, water-security planning, resilient roads, improved drainage, climate-resilient agriculture, fisheries resilience, child-sensitive social protection, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation.

A practical resilience package for Guinea-Bissau should include:

Improving EWS 

Digital Twins for Disaster Early Warning Systems | TREES DLA

About us

The National Meteorological Institute of Guinea-Bissau (INM-GB) is the entity responsible for providing crucial meteorological information for the sustainable development of the country and the mitigation of climate impacts on human well-being and the natural environment. Founded in 1964, the INM-GB has a long history of monitoring atmospheric conditions in the territory, beginning with the first meteorological station in Bolama in 1905. Since then, the network of meteorological stations has expanded, and the INM-GB became a member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1977, actively participating in various regional and international organizations. Our mission is to ensure the systematic observation of the climate, share meteorological data globally, and collaborate with public and private institutions for the implementation of research projects and specialized meteorological services.

Download documents on Guinea-Bissau 

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