Multi-hazard Early Warning Center (MHEWC)

The   Multi-hazard Early Warning Center -works for  technical & operational shift from traditional forecast( ‘what weather be ) to impact forecast (‘what weather can do’).  It encompasses transformative and structural changes from the traditional forecasts to IT database & GIS tool-based analytics of color-coded thresholds of impacts, exposure,  risks, vulnerabilities of the ground,  anticipatory losses & damages likely to impend over the forecast lead time.  Therefore, the humanitarian community and vulnerable sectors will early be informed about the impact level and be able to develop an early action protocol (EAP) for better preparedness. ICT-driven integrated impact-based weather forecasting, warning, alerting, and multi-hazard early warning system( MHEWS) is a WMO’s new approach to come up with an one-stop solution to improved weather and climate information services starting from baseline climate risk and vulnerability assessment, risk repository, and atlas preparation so that any impending hazards weather events being well screened, predicted with spatiotemporal scale and anticipatory loss &  damages (L & D) being well advised over the forecast lead-time until hazardous weather events being dissipated.  

Traditional weather forecasting provides limited information on weather conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and, other atmospheric conditions, but IBF takes it steps further by providing information on how those conditions could impact ground elements by & large. For example, an IBF  forecast intends to provide information on frequency, the intensity of weather events, the threshold of impacts at the spatiotemporal scale of the impending hazardous weather, anticipatory risk and vulnerability, loss &  damages(L & D) are likely, how to develop an early action protocol (EAP), early warning based early action ( EWEA) detailed contingency plans and anticipatory budgeting to be allocated for better preparedness, etc.

1.1 Importance of developing an integrated IBF platform :
 
Addressing the diverse and rapidly changing weather phenomena of the  IBF system is intended to bridge the structural, process, and forecast product manufacturing gaps of NAMEM/IRIMHE. A robust integrated IBF platform methodology is being proposed for linking and mandating other essential partners to interactively contribute to the system.  IBF  implementation and operational process intended to reciprocate & correlate impact calculation process of forecasted impending high-impact weather conditions being impacting with existing baseline risks and vulnerabilities of the elements on the ground.
 
Importance of developing an integrated IBF platform :

The important input ingredients for the IBF process are to have a readily available sector-specific comprehensive baseline risk and vulnerability assessed repository, corresponding risk and vulnerability attribute database, and risk atlas analysis with GIS tools for forecast impact analysis.

The ICT-enabled IBF platform has an interface for real-time information tracking of crowdsourcing and ICT-based hybrid surface weather observation ( automated system) on the current  hazardous weather conditions,
Weather and climate risk-informed planning tools for the sectors 
Dashboard on tailormade impending weather and climate information services for sectoral planning.

Ealy action protocol (EAP ), early warning early actions planning, anticipatory loss, and damage scenarios for humanitarian response planning.
GIS tools-based IBF platform has the provision for analyzing the threshold-based weather warnings and develops common alerting protocol in the event of severe weather expected to trigger disaster. The platform able to provide  Multi-hazard Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services and national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) agencies be able to directly communicate with vulnerable communities, sectors, and end-users with group-based apps and can provide any useful situational updates for informing common alerting.
IBF structured information system on impact forecasting, hazard warning, tailor-made exposure, and vulnerability information to identify risk and support for humanitarian decision-making, provide a way forward to undertake early action that reduces damages and loss of life from natural hazards.
Traditional weather forecasts indicate what the weather will be, for example, 70mm/hourly rain in a given location., however, IBF considers the vulnerability of elements and vulnerable population and their assets to heavy rainfall-triggered flooding and flash flooding impacts, such as loss of life and properties.
The main benefit of the IBF is that it combines hazard forecasts like heavy rainfall, severe wind, or temperature, with the elements that are exposed to the hazard such as buildings, transport routes, and population distribution, and the vulnerability of individuals, properties, or infrastructure.
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The IBF enables an integrated, authoritative message to be delivered to all parts of society so that everyone can take appropriate action to ensure personal safety and protect property.


Framework of integrated impact forecasting, weather warning, and MHEWS

The intended design aspect of an integrated IBF is to provide a one-stop solution for weather and climate information services. This robust  IBF system essentially to  complement the WMO’s global efforts of transitioning  from traditional weather forecasts to integrated impact forecasting, weather warning, alerting, and multi-hazard early warning system (MHEWS) extensively covering to last mile. The proposed IBF system is also imperative for the Sendai Framework to full-scale Implementation and access of MHEWS and disaster risk information and assessments to the climate frontline.


1.3  The expected  benefits of an integrated IBF platform:
 
Impact-based forecasts and warnings provide a roadmap of anticipatory actions, an early action protocol(EAP) that enables preparedness measures for saving lives, properties, and livelihoods.
Impact-based forecasts and warnings communicate information that allows those at risk to make effective decisions to safeguard against the impact of forecast extreme weather or climate event.
Developing impact-based forecasts and warnings builds strong, collaborative partnerships between national meteorological and hydrological services and sectors operating in disaster risk reduction and management.
Impact-based forecasting communicates uncertainties. Decision makers can factor the uncertainties into choosing appropriate actions.
Forecast producers and users of Impact based forecasting and warnings be able to share data, best practices, and critical information before, during, and after weather and climate events to improve the quality of forecast and warning information. There are opportunities for forecasts to support strategic planning in the County such as through using forecasts to inform sectoral annual plans and related budgets, to raise awareness of potential climate risks, and resource mobilization for early action.


2.0   IBF Stakeholder Partnership  & Communication
 
Core objective: The principal objective is to develop a stronger commitment, mandating coherent coordination of partners, and stakeholders by networking to a hybrid partnership mechanism of data/information coordination, exchange, and risk communication mechanisms.
 
IBF processes the multifaceted functional and proactive coordination mechanism regularly. The data-sharing paradigm is inextricably linked to the IBF process. We need to classify the stakeholder category, and the responsibilities, on the multi-hazard onset, and disaster onset.
 
State-of-the-art ICT-enabled interface artificial intelligence(AI) and IT program-driven functional systems having robust traceability capacity over the 24/7 proactiveness can predict what weather will do and impacts level, anticipatory intensity and frequency, scalability of extreme weather parameters turning to disaster, and need to be well addressed.
 
2.1 Rationale of  Partnership ( both formal  and virtual context) :    
 
The IBF has indispensable features and service delivery capacities for mandating the connectedness of stakeholders with the system and remains operational for demand driven service deliveries. The engineering aspect of the IBF platform to design with ICT enabled robust architecture for having optimum operability with interfacing multiple sources information, recurrent processability, and the IBF product output system optimally works on an interactive partnership of stakeholders across the country. The sector-specific impact level analysis of the hazardous weather parameters sought the involvement of designated specialized government national hydrometeorological organizations (NMHS), sectoral departments, R & D organizations & specialists, academia, mandated partners, commercial stakeholders, herders, and vulnerable community to contribute inputs for making IBF readily available and on the time. 
 
Mandating the aforementioned stakeholders through a set of standard operating procedures (SoP ) viably to a common consensus of a proactive, time-critical partnership and collaboration amongst the wide range of technical partners and agencies engaged in meteorology, climatology, hydrology, disaster risk management, local government sectors, pre-disaster risk assessment group, post-disaster damage, loss and needs assessment (PDNA) group, disaster first-responders, vulnerable community, herders group, etc. for the contribution.  The IBF system thus ensures functional partnership by encouraging stakeholders getting into access to the platform with a  sense of ownership imperatively to demand-driven weather information service delivery for the IBF related data/information process, informed tools development, and deliverables to climate & disaster emergency management.
 
The IBF process depends on the multifaceted, interactive,  functional, regular proactive coordination mechanism amongst all stakeholders. The data-sharing protocol to the IBF process. The IBF needs to classify the stakeholder categories, the responsibilities over to risk information coordination, risks and impeding impact interpretation over to impending onset extreme weather events and to managing the risk and vulnerabilities of induced disaster.