ICT-driven Robust Multi-Hazard Early Warning System design concept (Somalia)

( This has been prepared for the International Agency, and it is copyright protected )

Executive Summary

The proposed EW4ALL implementation strategy considers the current set of Somalia disaster/climate risk, fragility, conflict, and vulnerability (FCV) context. It considers the most appropriate solution to the governance paradox. It concurrently takes into account how to overcome the governance fragility challenges and bridge the gaps among the last-mile non-state development actors, private sectors, and central-level federal and state actors(government) in the disaster risk management governance system. The most considerable imperatives are that the Somali mobile penetration reaches 80% of the country’s population, leveraging the way forward to an ICT-driven agile online system structured as an open-ended system to facilitate the implementation of the EW4ALL pillar actions for Somalia.

Proposed ICT tools-driven online system of national multi-hazard early warning system(NMHEWS) underscored the technical nexus of fostering protective digital partnership among all actors through the implementation of ICT tools-based informed multi-hazard risk governance management and overall improvement of the hydromet Services and Early Warning Systems. More specifically, the purpose of this report is to provide valuable insights into the nuances of ICT driven early warning systems (EWS) implementation within fragile, conflict, and violence (FCV)-affected contexts against growing natural hazards, offering technical risk-governance and identifying entry points where an ICT tools supported mechanism to link climate frontline stakeholders, community and smallholder entrepreneurs as last-mile key informant and to be interacting them with the EW4ALL system,  enhancing last-mile stakeholder digital coordination, optimizing multi-hazard risk-informed and climate proof local development planning, resource allocation, and fostering community readiness to better preparedness for, respond to and resilience-building to any impending hazardous multi-hazards.

All the significant inputs for this  EW4ALL implementation strategy development came from a field mission to Somalia, organizing stakeholder consultation, and a physical visit to the concerned government entities in Somalia.

Contents

1.0          Introduction. 9

1.1 Objective of the Assessment and Full-scale EW4ALL Implementation Strategy Development: 10

1.2 Assessment Methodology. 10

1.3 Consultation Process: 12

2.0 Challenges of Multi-hazard Risk Management Governance in the Somalin FCV context : 12

2.1 Recommendations for Overcoming the Indicative Challenges and exploring an ICT-driven multi-hazard risk management system can be implemented in the Somalia FCV context 15

2.2 Objective of the Interoperable NMHEWS for Somalia  : 16

2.3 Urgency of Implementation of ICT-based Multi-Hazard Risk Management Governance: 16

2.4 Key indicators of ICT-driven EW4ALL action priorities for Somalia in FCV context. 18

3.0  Pillar 1 Implementation Strategy (Improving Disaster Risk Knowledge): 19

3.1   The ongoing  SoDMA Structure : 19

3.2   The NMHEWC ongoing operational structure : 20

3.3 Proposed Interoperable NMHEWS : 21

3.3.1 Establish a digital partnership among the stakeholders and prime actors: 21

3.3.2 Design and implementation of an Interoperability Online geospatial system : 22

3.4  : ICT Structures  of Interoperable Online NMHEWS Platform: 23

3.6 Implementation of Open-Source Geospatial Platform : 24

3.6.1  Component of Open-Source Geospatial Platform: 25

3.6.2            Installation  of Geoserver : 25

3.6.3            Anchoring google mapping tools  : 26

3.6.4  Installation and Configuration of Surveying Apps. 26

3.6.5  Deploying File-Sharing Tools : 26

3.6.6 Implementing Web converting common alerting protocol (CAP )apps : 26

3.7 Rationale of ICT-integrated Interoperable Online NMHEWS platform: 27

3.8 Improving Risk Knowledge of stakeholders. 28

3.9 Improving Sector Value Chain Operators’ Risk Knowledge: 28

3.10 Following are the recommendations for Disaster Risk Knowledge Management Governance. 29

3.11  Review  Stakeholder Partnership & Coordination Mechanism.. 31

3.12   Partnership for Data Coordination and Exchange Mechanism.. 32

3.13 Upgradation and Activation of Interoperable Situation Room and  NMHEWS at NMHEWC of SoDMA: 33

3.14 NMHEWS responsibilities for improving risk knowledge : 34

3.14.1  Understanding Disaster Risk of the Locality. 34

3.14.2               Frontline community needs to understand Disaster Risk in their Locality : 34

3.14.3          Enhancing the risk knowledge of Smallholder crop farmers: 35

3.14.4          Climate Vulnerable Productive Sector Departments : 36

3.14.5          Improving risk knowledge of Civil Protection  Committee(CPC)/Disaster management Committee : 39

3.14.6          Improving risk knowledge of Humanitarian actors  : 40

3.14.7          Improving risk knowledge of entrepreneurs & Value Chain Operators. 40

3.14.8          Improving risk knowledge of Local Governments ( City, Municipality, Urban councils ) actors to deal with the climate crisis  40

3.14.9          Improving risk knowledge of Duty Bearer/Local Disaster Management Committee (DMC)/Civil Protection Committee : 41

4.0 Pillar 2 : Improving surface observation, Monitoring, and Forecasting. 42

4.1 The existing hydro met services- Somalia faces daunting challenges in implementing Pillar 2 for the following reasons   : 42

4.1     Current forecasting mechanism of Somalia    : 42

4.2 Indicative challenges in national forecasting service delivery : 43

4.3 Recommendations on improving  the national forecasting service delivery : 43

4.4 Recommendations on improving the sector-specific national forecasting service delivery : 45

4.5 Recommendations on improving hydrometeorological services: : 45

4.6 Improving hybrid observation. 59

5.0 Pillar 3 Implementation Strategy ( Warning dissemination and communication) 60

5.1 Indicative Challenges of  Warning dissemination and communication. 60

5.2 Developing a Common Alerting Protocol(CAP) : 62

5.3  Interoperable risk communication and feedback system with NMHEWS ( CREWS Initiative Support ) 63

5.4  Develop and disseminate a common alerting protocol (CAP) on imminent hazards, weather  : 63

5.5  Improving terrestrial Broadcasting. 64

5.6  Stakeholders’ responsibility metrics on Risk Communication and Event Updates. 65

5.7  NCA Mandates National Broadcasters, News Outlets for dissemination. 68

5.8  UN Clusters data contribution for impact forecasting. 68

5.9  Installation of hybrid surface observation and organize a Live radio/TV show during Hazard spells are going. 69

6.0 Pillar 4 : Improving Preparedness and Response Capabilities. 70

6.1 The central objectives for improving Preparedness and response capabilities. 70

6.2 Recommendations on a coherent sector-level actionable policy framework: 70

6.3 Improving Forecast-based Anticipatory Action Planning Capacity: 71

6.4  Implementation  functional Civil Protection  Committee(CPC)/Disaster management Committee(DMC) : 71

6.5  Hazard risk-informed Humanitarian actions. 72

6.6    Improving the community-level volunteering network for emergency preparedness and Response mechanism   72

6.7   Improving Last-Mile Disaster Preparedness Capacity. 72

6.8    Improving Community-based Early Warning Capacity. 74

6.9   How to develop  Anticipatory Action (AA) Framework. 75

6.10    Improve  disaster risk financing system: 77

6.11    Supporting the implementation of risk-informed DRM and DRR. 77

6.12    Improve DRM Planning at local level : 78

6.13   Gender responsive DRR framework : 78

Acronym

1.0 Introduction  

Somalia must implement an ICT-driven agile online platform on a national multi-hazard early warning system (NMHEWS). This system is essential to supply precision-level hazard early warning, impact forecast, weather warning alerting, sectoral elements, risk-informed climate-proof planning, and support disaster risk management governance. It will also prepare the climate frontline ( last-mile) for, respond to, and recover from extreme weather events & multi-hazards.

The implementation strategy was derived from the field mission for the institutional assessment and stakeholder consultations of Early Warning for All (EW4ALL) implementation for Somalia. The field mission is intended to assess the current institutional capacity in hydrometeorological service delivery with multidimensional aspects of operational modality.

The main objective of the assessment is to review the institutional capability to fully implement Early Warning for All (EW4ALL) with all its structure, methodology, tools, and processes. It will also analyze the core stakeholders’ capacity to implement the EW4ALL pillar actions and devise strategies for implementing EW4ALL, considering the Somalian Fragility, Conflict, and Vulnerability (FCV) context.

One of the technical aspects of the assessment of physical visits is the SoDMA NMHEWC, which reviews the overall operational status and service delivery capacity. It also reviews the ICT infrastructure, database, hardware, software, system components, network topology, internet backbone, data connectivity, and human resources capacity in handling disaster risk information management.

To conduct technical reviews on the systemic structure and interoperability of the EW4ALL implementation of all pillar actions, which depend on coordination and partnership mechanisms, operational capacity to determine hazard detection, forecast production, hazard impact analysis, risk communication, and better preparedness and response capacity.

The assessment is intended to investigate the operational capability of  SoDMA national hazard early warning center (NMHEWC), the Somalian climate vulnerable sector ministry, regarding its current institutional capacity, technical structure, ICT structures, functional and operational capability of handling the multi-hazard early warning functions, products, services, coordination mechanism, etc.

UNDRR undertook an initiative to enhance Somalian capacity to improve the Early Warning for All (EW4ALL) initiative by implementing all pillar actions with an already developed Roadmap of action plans. The assessment investigated the overall disaster risk management governance capacity and the existence of local government-level disaster risk management systems.

1.1 Objective of the Assessment and Full-scale EW4ALL Implementation Strategy Development:

• The objective of the field mission is to assess Somalian institutional capacity for improving multi-hazard risk knowledge, multi-hazard early warning preparation, and dissemination capacity.
• Diagnose the multi-hazard early warning system, identify the bottlenecks and gaps of the inclusive multi-hazard risk governance system, and provide recommendations and a way forward
• Stakeholder consultation and diagnosis of risk knowledge management, hazard detection, and providing precision-level early warning; multi-hazard risk communication gaps and recommendations for systemic improvements; investigation of institutional mechanisms; partnership and coordination of preparedness and response management assessment; underlying indicative gaps, provide recommendations, and prepare implementation strategy for the Somalian context.

1.2 Assessment Methodology

The methodological approach of assessment follows through several strategic tools, e.g., from March 23 – 27, 2025, to conduct stakeholder consultation with Key Informant Interview (KII) with key stakeholders (sector ministries/departments, UN Agencies ) to investigate the institutional capacity of in terms of implementation of EW4ALL Pillar actions/intervention. Conducted physical visits to review the NHMWEC infrastructure, hardware, software, communication tools, database, servers, storage system, internet connectivity, and digital partnership with other key actors. Side-by-side, the comprehensive desk reviews of all websites, information disclosure policy, strategy, and NHMWEC’s products and services for the end users. Assessment reviews of the current set of stakeholder coordination and partnerships regarding multi-hazard early warning service deliveries, as well as all pillar activities and engagement of last-mile stakeholders in Disaster Risk Management (DRM). Assessment interacted with the stakeholders with the following questionnaires to identify the indicative gaps.  

 Figure 1: Institutional Assessment Methodology

• What are the Operational Structure and service Delivery Capacity gaps of NMHEWC with regard to the EW4ALL Roadmap?
• What about the existing  ICT system and structure in place at the SoDMA and other sector departments (Service delivery Capacity, Hardware, Software, IT-capable, Human Resources) ?
• The level  of use of the GIS & Remote Sensing Section (Service delivery Capacity, Hardware, Software, IT Human Resources) , Field-level data collection, collation, and production-informed tools ( GIS Maps )
• What about the current status of NHMS, EWS minimum capability in data collection, risk data collection, repository development, L&D data collection mechanism, PDNA, RPDNA capacity?
• Existing capacity of climate vulnerability sector ministries and departments in climate and multi-hazard risk assessment capacity ( methodology, guidelines,  tools, process ), indicative gaps, and recommendations.
• Current capacity of sector-level risk data collection, age-sex, disability disaggregated data( SADD)  collection mechanism, data-collation, databases,  repository &  informed tools development ( GIS map/atlas, reports, etc.) capacity.
• What is the current stakeholder partnership and coordination framework structure for disaster risk governance management, risk and vulnerability assessment, risk-informed sectoral planning, and how to partner with the CERWS GHA and EW4ALL full-scale implementation?
• The  level of the ICT/GIS system, GIS, and Remote Sensing Map production system of FAO-SWALIM of  MoEWR
• What is the current level of national hydromet services, the status of observation stations, data collection, collation, and processing mechanisms?
• What is the current data sharing and information exchange mechanism with upper-riparian transboundary ( Ethiopia, Kenya)  & inland flood forecasting and early warning systems, inland heavy rainfall forecasting and Outlook System, operational forecasting system, impact forecasting system, and overall forecasting capability, bulletin preparation, and forecast-based early action protocol development?
• What is the current  national risk communication framework, roadmap, Structures and processes,  national media outlets, broadcasting channels, dissemination channel, community-based end-to-end early warning mechanism, warning understandability by the frontline community, warning receiving modalities, gaps, and challenges
• What is the current risk dissemination framework? How do national Radio/TV broadcasters broadcast access every day’s forecasts, mandates, Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs), and accountability of national broadcasters in broadcasting emergency weather bulletins, weather warnings,, and alerting?  How does the last-mile off-grid remote/hard-to-reach area community/household receive water warning? What are those indicative forecast dissemination barriers and challenges,, and how to address bottlenecks?
• Reviews  of national risk communication framework, roadmap, structure, process gaps, and challenges
• Assessment of national media outlets, broadcasting channels, and dissemination channels
• Community-based end-to-end early warning mechanism, warning understandability by frontline community warning receiving modalities, gaps, and challenges
• Review local government planning process,  gender-inclusive participatory local government /clan level development planning, gender-inclusive DRR Planning and interventions by state and non-state actors
• What is the current DRM structure, risk governance mechanism, structure, and functional status of the Civil Protection Committee (CPC)/Disaster Management Committee(DMC),  Disaster Preparedness, response, and recovery planning process?
• Assessment of the current Disaster Emergency Declaration Process,  UN /INGO-led cluster coordination, and response mobilization, and humanitarian action. Assessment of Local Level ( District/Village) level DRM Plans,(Preparedness, response, and recovery ), humanitarian action
• Assessment of Sector-level DRR interactions at the local level, Review local government planning process,  gender-inclusive participatory local government /clan level development planning, Gendered inclusive DRR Planning and interventions by state and non-state actors 

1.3 Consultation Process:

• Organize Meetings with SoDMA  NMHEWC Team ( ICT Department, hazard risk analysis team, DRR Department,  Humanitarian Affairs Department, Planning and M & E Department, and other relevant officials/stakeholders)
• Consultation with the Livestock, Agriculture, and Water Resources Department.
• Consultation with UN Agencies (UNDP, FAO, WFP)
• Consultation with the technical working group of national hydromet services of the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources (MoEWR), Somalia Water Sources Information Management System
• Meeting with NCA and Broadcasters to discuss the challenges of weather forecasting and bulletin preparation.

2.0 Challenges of Multi-hazard Risk Management Governance in the Somalin FCV context :

1. Political fragility and a centralized governance system for risk-informed development:

Climate/multi-hazard risk management governance process encompasses some cross-cutting issues, cohesive policy action, inclusive programmatic action, inter & intra-institutional partnership, etc., which requires sectoral agreed consensus on risk assessment & information sharing, coordination, collaboration, a level of participatory last-mile local climate governance system is in place, local resource mobilization for the climate resilient local development actions, service delivery capacity stakeholders, and inclusive and participatory engagement of last-mile stakeholders and frontline community with the localized risk-informed development initiatives, etc.  In Somalia,  federal & state’s actors-led service deliveries to the last-mile are hindered by fragmented and self proclaimed governance,  the clan-based fragility and territorial fragmented governance system, conflicts, silo approached and largely the CSO led service deliveries. The diagram below shows that Somalia has a limited extent of nexus between the centralized nature of federal and member state governance systems, poorly functioning district local government, and sector departments to expand risk-informed service delivery at the last-mile. On the other hand, the largest last-mile development actors are  UN Agencies and INGO-led CSOs, which mostly adopt a siloed approach and are less partnered with government actors.

Figure 2 : Political fragility and a centralized governance system ( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

• Current practices of the Silo-approached implementation modality:

Most actors at federal & state( sector ministry, sector department, district administration) & non-state( INGOs, CSOs)  risk-informed development activity goes with a silo-approach, keeping minimal coordination, partnership, and minimal information disclosure, which essentially hinders the interactive and stakeholder-coordinated EW4ALL Pillar’s specific participatory actions. However, on the outset, the Multi-hazard and Climate risk management governance typically depends on agreed consensus on coordination, partnership, local governance system, local resource mobilization for the climate resilient local development actions, service delivery capacity stakeholders, and inclusive and participatory engagement of last-mile stakeholders and frontline community with the localized risk-informed development initiatives.  The figure 2 shows that Somalia government sector ministry/department has a limited extent of partnership nexus between the centralized nature of the federal and member-state governance systems, poorly functioning district local government, and sector departments to provide risk-informed service delivery at the last mile, and UN and other INGOs’ development efforts at the local level, which take a mostly siloed approach and dependency on  CSOs.

• Sector level minimal level of data coordination, exchange, and disclosure:

Although having around 80% mobile users across the country, unfortunately, most of the climate vulnerable government sector departments at central, state and district level have limited level of use ICT systems ( hardware, software, and communication systems), Management Information System(MIS) for systematic inventorying of multi-hazard and climate risk information, lack of tailored risk information being disseminated through the organizational website. Inadequate data are sharing protocol/MoU, mandates by the central/state governments on multi-hazard risk assessment, tailor-made repository development, web-based data sharing, and disclosure for supporting the development of impact weather forecasts, risk-informed DRM planning at the local level.

• Inadequate sector-level risk assessment, systematic risk repository development:

Disaster risk management planning requires tailored, localized risk information for the local disaster preparedness, response, and recovery planning level.  The department needs to access the information for planning purposes. By and large, the non-state actors, such as local NGOs, are the last-mile development actors. 

• Inadequate surface weather observation:

Most weather observation stations are manual, and time-series data acquisition from them does not occur systematically and regularly. As a result, point-based nowcasting services are not happening, and forecast verification is also being hindered.  Due to inadequate institutional capacity, Somalia has limited hydro-meteorological data gathering, monitoring, real-time tracking, and forecasting. It is urgent that the WMO, UNDP and UNEP to close the climate and weather observations data gap of most severe shortfalls in observations, and prioritizing EW4ALL Pillar-2 and to call the Systematic Observations Financing Facility (SOFF) long-term financial and technical assistance to support the generation and sharing of basic weather and climate observations, according to the internationally agreed Global Basic Observing Network (GBON) regulations.  

In Somalia, the GBON-compliant limited extent of hydrometeorological observation capacity is due to insufficient automatic hydro-meteorological stations on the ground, manual data reading, data transmission difficulties, and regular operation and maintenance support.  Hydrometeorological data gathering, monitoring, and forecasting in real-time tracking, exchange of information, and forecasting are limited due to insufficient automatic hydrometeorological stations on the ground and the limited capacity of their systems in hydrometeorological forecasting.

• Inadequate local-level Disaster Risk Management capacity

The magnitude and trend of climate risks are mounting with the changing climate regime in Somalia. Over the past 48 years, statistics of disaster events show that most of the disaster events are rapid and sudden onset (floods, cyclones, diseases, outbreaks), and simultaneously, slow, protracted droughts are also severe and recurrent, as evidenced by the occurrence of hydrometeorological and agricultural droughts every year. These essentially contributed to the loss and damage of livelihood and productive sectors. Fundamentally, the graph signifies the essentiality of an ICT-driven functional early warning system. Climate change-induced internal and external displacement intensifies demographic and socioeconomic risk factors.

Figure 3: Somalia Disaster events (1975-2024) : Source EM-DAT     Apr 2024 ( 48 years Disaster incidence dataset for Somalia)

The Hydro-meteorological data gathering, monitoring, and forecasting in real-time tracking, exchange of information, and forecasting are in limited extent due to an insufficient number of automatic hydro-meteorological stations on the ground, manual data reading and data transmission difficulties, regular operation and maintenance support, and the limited capacity of its systems in hydrological forecasting. For Somalia to have robust weather forecasting and impact-based EWS, real-time monitoring systems for meteorological and hydrological conditions must be strengthened by automating existing stations and installing new automated stations. This includes but is not limited to the development of real-time transmission of data for flood monitoring through expanding the spatial coverage of hydro-meteorological stations and upgrading the current quality and timeliness of the information.

• Inadequate tailored, risk-informed planning and intervention: The county has yet to have sector-level institutional capacity in systemic climate risk assessment, risk repository, or tailored, informed-planning tools. There is less institutional accountability, mandates, an information management system, a policy framework, methodology tools, guidelines, and a task force for conducting sector-level risk assessment. The sector department is supposed to have a risk database, GIS at least for their repository, and supporting project design and implementation.

2.1 Recommendations for Overcoming the Indicative Challenges and exploring an ICT-driven multi-hazard risk management system can be implemented in the Somalia FCV context

• Improving ICT-based risk governance at central, member state, regional, district, and village levels: The FCV context hinders bottom-up and top-down development planning and interventions. On the other hand, disaster risk management always needs to address the emergencies induced by impending multi-hazards, as loss of lives is imminent.  Therefore, ICT tools-based governance systems can be used to close the risk-informed development gaps. The ICT-driven whole society approach is the most advanced and robust tool, where the community at the frontline is the first responder, along with other functional communities at the local level.  The first responder would be able to use the Online risk database to be interfaced with Kobo-toolbox and other survey and GPS placemark tracking apps
• All the CSO-led stakeholders (CPC/DMC,  Village level government /Clan-based leaders, mosque based committee, local charities) would be able to conduct apps-based multi-hazard exposers, risk and vulnerability assessment, send georeferenced elements specific information during disaster onset, they will be able to send georeferenced disaster events hotspots, event situation awareness related information and concurrently all information to be disseminated to online/mobile apps for the whole-of-the-society awareness and resilience building, DRM, DRR.
• The local CSOs, NGOs, academia, students, R & D organization, value chain operators, stakeholders, entrepreneurs, etc., would also be the key informants to provide/update the onset multi-hazard event situation during disaster emergency, on the regular basis the georeferenced elements specific climate/multi-hazard exposure information to central servers via apps.
• Mandating Sector departments (Crop agriculture, livestock, WASH, water sector, health, and fisheries) to send elements of specific georeferenced climate exposure, risk, and vulnerability information to a central server via an online database system.
• The Sector department would be able to interpret the sectoral elements’ exposure, risk, and vulnerability whenever they can access high-resolution spatiotemporal-scale weather warnings.
• High-density, point-based surface observation and ICT-driven impact forecasts; sectoral element-level operational and impact forecasts; operational forecasts for basic service delivery structures (power stations, healthcare facilities, lifeline service delivery utility services); and point forecasts for high-value elements (city, municipality, urban centres, IDP, rural settlements).
• The community will receive weather alerts through mobile apps, WhatsApp, SMS, IVR, and cell broadcasts, and receive the threshold level of impact forecast to take precautionary and preparedness measures. The Geospatial mobile apps will be able to provide GIS map-based emergency preparedness and evacuation advisories on where to take emergency shelters/core-family shelters.
• ICT based management of disaster CPC/DMC with showing standing orders on disasters (SoD), tracking of all local actors/stakeholders on 5W manners to avoid duplication, overarching interventions and identifying the non-intervention and hard-to-reach areas
• The ICT-based DRM system will conduct the RPDNA, quantify the initial L&DS statistics of lifesaving sectors, and identify required immediate emergency humanitarian responses, resource mobilization gaps, needs, priorities, etc.
• The Local Civil Protection Committee (CPC) could disseminate end-to-end community-based early warning and concurrently develop forecast-based anticipatory action for the locality.
• The ICT online dashboard will support the humanitarian community in developing forecast-based early anticipatory action in planning, implementing, and responding to disasters. For Pillar 4 interventions, the actors would be able to access online digital disaster emergency planning.
•  Online apps for collecting Loss and Damage statistics from the community level:  The information can be validated from the crowdsourced big-data/information gathered by the app-based hazard L&Ds tracking system to understand the impending onset of disasters that induce damage and losses on the ground. The incident tracking and event situation updates provide the way forward to calculate the next level impacts over the changing scale intensity, frequency of the hazardous effects that continue ( flood, cyclone), and can support developing impact forecasts and event situations at the next level. This integrated impact analytical Informed decision forecast. Faisal’s action created an early action protocol informed decision-making for mobilizing humanitarian action on the ground. Which will. Remove the barrier of silos approach by implementing a centralized process.

2.2 Objective of the Interoperable NMHEWS for Somalia  :

1. Online Multi-hazard risk information management system: Nobody knows who is doing what in a traditional emergency preparedness and humanitarian action coordination context. There is a huge institutional coordination gap among the stakeholders.

Multi-hazard risk management is typically a coordinated job in which, while the early warning is being issued, the next level pre-requisites translate impending-anticipatory risk into anticipatory actions, which require huge local-level coordination. The Interoperable system renders the integrated approach to workability of who will be doing what, where, when, and how, ensuring inclusive local-level participation.  The system can leverage the precision level information to formulate the response mechanism and be able to perform multiple tasks of impending multi-hazards, including the likelihood of impacts/L&Ds, and after taking landfall, what impacts are experienced at the frontline, what intensity and trail of L&Ds are taking place.

• ICT system for disaster risk management:  Improving risk governance is an integrated job that requires last-mile engagement with the process, the ICT tools driven and interoperable early warning platform can keep every local level CPC informed about the impending hazard condition, and the community/frontline would be able to interpret the magnitude and intensity of the hazard risk, and accordingly, individual-level anticipatory action can be developed as part of an end-to-end early warning system.

• Closing the list-mile risk information gaps: Designing online/Android apps and making frontline stakeholders, smallholder enterprises, humanitarian actors, and CPC volunteers as grass-roots level informants, and Inclusive digital participation in community local risk and vulnerability information and element-specific risk information.

2.3 Urgency of Implementation of ICT-based Multi-Hazard Risk Management Governance:

Climate change-induced multi-hazard management mostly depends on a systemic and structural approach in any country. Robust multi-hazard risk management governance mostly depends on an ICT-based structure and functional process to support the four Pillar actions: planning, task management, and mitigation.

Figure 4: ICT-based Risk Governance to bridge the last-mile climate risk management

The Somalian current multi-hazard risk management governance buildup on divergence patterns of governance( above figure) in which governments are tangled by the centralised and statehood policy and programmatic silo approach, poorly functioned local government system and CSO dominated last-mile development approach in which the central & state government system need to establish effective service delivery mechanism with ICT powered multi-hazard risk management and governance system.

Climate change-induced multi-hazard risk management depends on a country’s competence, ICT-powered risk management governance, inclusive stakeholders’ coordination and partnership, and mandated structural processes. Robust risk management governance depends on the highest ICT-based structure and functional processes to support the four Pillar actions.

The Somalian multi-hazard risk management governance system needs to build up from the multiple divergence patterns of governance e.g., centralised and statehood policy and programmatic silo approach, poorly functioned local government system and CSO dominated last-mile development approach in which the central & state government system need to establish effective service delivery mechanism with ICT powered multi-hazard risk management and governance system.  

The INGO-led local NGOs and CSOs are the last-mile actors for the multi-hazard risk-informed development. The central and state-level sector ministries and departments must close the gap by implementing an ICT-driven risk-governance management system. The figure below points out the governance gaps and emphasizes the ICT-based risk governance.  Figure 4 depicts how far the federal and state governments are lagging in bridging the last-mile multi-hazard risk-informed development, inadequate coordination, and partnership with last-mile CSOs in the given FCV context of Somalia.

2.4 Key indicators of ICT-driven EW4ALL action priorities for Somalia in FCV context.

Figure 5: Key indicators of ICT-driven EW4ALL action priorities( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

3.0  Pillar 1 Implementation Strategy (Improving Disaster Risk Knowledge):

Improving Risk knowledge: Communities at the climate frontline must understand the persistent and impending multi-hazard, socioeconomic, and other risk drivers in the locality. Localized online risk knowledge can boost their risk perception. Online apps-based information management and participatory risk and vulnerability assessment, participatory focus-group discussion, social mapping, elements specific risk prioritization, and risk profiling etc.,  will help communities continue to monitor and learn about climate change and impending multi-hazard risks which they are likely to be exposed, anticipatory  Loss and Damage ( L&Ds), and identify potential preparedness,  response and mitigating actions.

Risk transfer and pre-arranged financing are critical to addressing capacity gaps and investing in the infrastructure required to implement, operate, and maintain MHEWS. This enables insurance to work alongside other mechanisms, allowing Anticipatory Action (AA). For example, social protection interventions can be integrated with disaster risk management and climate change adaptation measures to better anticipate and respond to shocks.

3.1   The ongoing  SoDMA Structure :

The SoDMA developed organogram still has not positioned NMHEWC as a center of excellence for multi-hazard risk management.  The SoDMA functional diagram shows that NMHEWC is not aligned as a separate entity and functional unit for handling early warning service delivery. Over the NMHEWC institutional human resources, the unit has some technical staff. However, in terms of multi-hazard early warning operational capability, the center still needs an intensive structure, technical specialization for hazard risk management, robust ICT infrastructure, hazard detection, analysis, and enhanced institutional capacity to handle the multi-hazard early warning service deliverability.

Figure 6 : Ongoing SoDMA Structure

3.2   The NMHEWC ongoing operational structure : 

Under the existing structure, the center has a limited operational capacity. The ICT structure and process are very initial and insufficient to run the center with multitasking capability. Currently, the center has the following hardware and service deliverability: The center runs as an isolated and intranet workstation modality for SoDMA internal use only. The department sector cannot digitally access the forecast output, bulletin, and resources because there is no online data center, and online systems are not functional except the SoDMA portal, which has organizational highlights.  Therefore, the NMHEWC product and services are limited to  SoDMA use only. The following are the types of workstations used.

1. 7 HP PRODESK (Processor i5, RAM 8GB, Windows 10 Pro): These computers are low-configured and have little processing power for multitasking. The workstation-specific tasks are designated as follows;

1. HP PRODESK-1 Running the Zoom Earth live weather map
2. HP PRODESK-2 Maintain an Excel sheet on Rain Gauge data of 40 rain gauge stations (decadal dataset)
3. HP PRODESK-3  Running  GFS weekly forecast
4. HP PRODESK-4  Running  WFP PRISM  System on the climate risk monitoring system. The system shows 10-day rainfall forecasts (GFS Global decadal forecasts), rainfall anomaly, SPI, last rain days,  temperature, phase classification, earthquake disaster assistance global system, customized global system cascading data used social economic vulnerability data ground truth Layers, rainfall, temperature, NDVI, SPI. Social economic vulnerability etc.  
5. HP PRODESK-5 Running  ICPAC East Africa hazard watch and weather forecasts  
6. HP PRODESK-6  Running Drought Monitor portal  
7. HP PRODESK-7  Running  myDEWETRA global platform of CIMA Research Foundation

• 4 HP Desktop Computers (Processor i7 8Gen, RAM 16GB, Windows Home) : Uses for hazard analysis

• 1 PC Running DesInveter online database: Update and maintenance DesInventer online database

Figure 7 : Ongoing NMHEWC structure

The above diagram shows that NMHEWC currently has a preliminary service delivery capability on multi-hazard risk management.

• Data center capability: The center does not have any designated Server for data processing and analytics

• Data Storage: Does not have any Server and storage devices for data storage 

• Software: Having ArcGIS 10.4, QGIS software

• Internet Backbone: The center is connected to a local broadband cable with limited internet bandwidth, which can support one-way internet traffic only. The center does not have an online database server for external data access.

• Data exchange, coordination, and partnership with other stakeholders: No ICT-online database dissemination system, no formal MoU mandates with other sector ministries and non-state actors for information exchange and coordination. No formally designated risk and vulnerability assessment committee, structure, methodology, or tools for Post-disaster damage, loss, and needs assessment (PDNA). The information is collected by engaging local enumerators and mosque imams as primary informants for sending information to the district administration.

1. Desinventar database: Currently, the center updates and maintains L&D information with Desinventar database. The archives have L&D statistics from 2021.

• National Emergency Operations Center (NEOC): NEOC operates separately and is located outside of SoMDA Complex. NEOC works on Somalia’s ad hoc Emergency response to a well-prepared and structured response to any natural, man-made, conflict, or Climate change-related hazards and shocks. NEOC remains in its role of Preparedness and coordination.

3.3 Proposed Interoperable NMHEWS :

The deployment of proposed  NMHEWS is basically an operational shift from a centralized controlled physical operational NMHEWC ( limited capacity ) to a robust ICT-driven interpretable multi-hazard early warning system(MHEWS) with concurrent multitasking capability, relational database management system (RDBMS), database interface with online portal and online apps, big data collection system with mobile apps, survey data collection with mobile apps (user-friendly apps), geolocation place mark tracking with ESRI Survey 123, GPS logger, Qfield, etc. The system will be an online platform connecting every government actor, non-state actors (CSOs), stakeholders, enterprises, private sectors, etc., digitally, and last-mile stakeholders and individuals. The system will promote an inclusive and integrated digital organization and overcome all procedural and institutional coordination and barriers to the disaster risk management (DRM) system.

The proposed system will work as a command-and-control system; the risk information will come directly from the primary informant, the grassroots-level households/community. Secondary informants would be the stakeholders and service providers at the last mile, and tertiary informants would be the district administration, sector extension departments, city, municipality, urban-level actors, etc. The system will have real-time oversight capacity, hazard event tracking, and real-time dissemination.

For overcoming the institutional partnership and coordination barriers on climate and multi-hazard risk information exchange and mandating stakeholders in multi-hazard risk information management, the following are the recommendations ;

3.3.1 Establish a digital partnership among the stakeholders and prime actors:

• Mandating stakeholders and partners to provide information proactively and to update recurrently.
• Facilitate unlimited sessions on particular GIS maps with impact interpretations at different capital stages of high-impact forecasted lead-time and lifecycles with advisors, warnings, and alerting by plotting hotspots over the map and record keeping for future uses. 
• Online data communication and sharing facility.
• Online dashboard control panel for constant monitoring of stakeholders’ activities, who provide what type of information
• Volunteers and smallholder farmers, herders living in remote areas, even without cell networks, can capture information offline and transmit it while accessing cell phone networks.
• Capture crowd-sourced multi-hazard incident data from social networks for event situational update
• A household with apps can send georeferenced information, such as disaster incidence information, with geolocation.
• Every stakeholder should easily understand the roles and responsibilities of risk data capture, impact interpretation, technical briefings, information update/upload, and dissemination.
• An online forum group allows experts/specialists/crowdsourcers to provide useful input and exchange knowledge, ideas, expertise, intelligence, and best practices concerning natural hazards.
• Process-centric Standard Operating Procedures (SoP) risk information communication, input data access, GIS-based interpretation, and direct uploading to the platform for dissemination is the one-stop solution for  IBF
• Provide a timely, familiar, and consistent source of advice to government and emergency responders for civil contingencies and disaster response.

Figure 8: Diagram of proposed digital Partnership and Coordination with the Sector agency, INGOs, UN Agencies  

3.3.2 Design and implementation of an Interoperability Online geospatial system :

•  Develop an integrated remote and digital partnership with all climate-vulnerable sector ministries, local government /public administration, and the CSOs, the Private sector is to play a pivotal role in the multi-hazard early warning operational value chain

•  Design, development, and implementation of the online database, geospatial maps with a geospatial database, and a spatial information system so that every key stakeholder can contribute to an integrated

•  The sector department is to be mandated to conduct Climate and weather risk and vulnerability assessment on the sector level elements, develop a risk repository, and share with the platform

•  Acquire time-series and real-time ECV weather parameters and climate information services by upgrading surface observation with AWS.

•  Multi-hazard risk information collection, hazardous situations, and disaster incidence tracking

•  Promoting point forecast of high-value elements ( city, municipality, IDPs) , nowcasting, multi-hazard  detection, tracking, and hazard impact analysis

•  Data and Information coordination and deployment of impact-based forecasting ( IBF) online platform. Currently, the UNDRR-CREWS initiative is supporting the SoDMA in this regard. 

•  Organise regular workshops/consultations/seminars/Meetings to improve service delivery:

•  Installation of  ground-level hybrid  observation mechanism 

• Scale-up and disseminate the CREWS Initiatives’ myDEWETRA forecast output to the online  interoperable platform for tailored multi-hazard risk management and impact forecasting  to general audiences

3.4  : ICT Structures  of Interoperable Online NMHEWS Platform:

Integrated ICT Structures for IBF Platform:  An integrated information and communication technology-based IBF platform is required to deal with impact forecasting, data coordination, partnership development, expertise opening sharing, integrated collaboration efforts of partners, etc.

 An ICT-enabled open-source GIS platform would be suitable for weather data acquisition from a hybrid system( figure 18), extreme weather-induced multi-hazard incidence tracking, forecasting, impact analysis, and delivery/dissemination of classified and useful climate information services to the end users and the climate frontline community. j

( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam) )

3.5 Proposed capacity-building plan for technical experts :

Figure 9: Diagram of ICT system structure and process  for an interoperable MHEWS

UNDRR CREWS has already started capacity building for relevant institutions as part of the process. Table Top Exercise(TTX)  training is being imparted to  SoDMA NMHWEC’s technical staff to contribute to operationalizing and assessing multi-hazard Early Warning and Early Action Systems (EW-EAS).

Further capacity building will be imparted to other relevant sector departments. The proposed Training of Trainers (ToT) programme  for enhancing stakeholders’ capacity in  Impact Forecasting capability may be given to the following stakeholders.

Table: Proposed CREWS Initiative Training participants

[1] Proposed by MoEWR

3.6 Implementation of Open-Source Geospatial Platform :

The functional paradigm of  IBF is to establish a digital relationship among the partners, with easy plug &  play interfaces that allow partners/ sector departments to access forecast data directly (publicly available)   with opensource GIS software( QGIS/ArcGIS), overlaying CSV/Shapefile of weather(  temperature, precipitation, wind, and other multi-hazard parameters/variables)  impact threshold with color-coded areas with sector & elements( water, livestock’s, agriculture, soil, land management, infrastructures, and communication elements are falling under the pink color, red, orange, yellow and green zone with numerical/amount of yield interact over the ground and impacting of types of elements and with spatiotemporal level.  

All sector departments should be capitates to use the open-source geospatial Platform to avail themselves of the benefits of data sharing, online mapping, flexibility, and cost efficiency with the least-cost solutions (purchasing some APIs, e.g., Google Earth, Google Earth Engine, leaflet, Open Layer, open street map, etc.  ). Those can be anchored with the integrated IBF platform quite easily and completed hassle-free.

3.6.1  Component of Open-Source Geospatial Platform:

1. Installation  of Geonode Server

GeoNode is a web-based application and platform for GIS maps and web-based mapping services. It allows for the integrated creation of GIS feature shapefiles, data, metadata, and map visualization. Each dataset in the system can be shared publicly or restricted to allow access to only specific users(partners /Sector Department). Features like user profiles, providing technical narratives, file uploading, commenting, rating systems, etc., allow for quick input from partners/users.

3.6.2       Installation  of Geoserver :

GeoServer is an open-source geospatial tool. Implementing the system will significantly lower the financial barrier to entry when compared to proprietary GIS products. In addition, GeoServer is not only available free of charge but also open source. Bug fixes and feature improvements in open-source software occur transparently, often at an accelerated pace compared to closed software solutions.  GeoServer is a Java-based server that allows users to view and edit geospatial data. Integrate With Mapping APIs. Using open standards set forth by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), GeoServer allows for great flexibility in map creation and data sharing.

GeoServer allows us to display spatial information to the world. Implementing the Web Map Service (WMS) standard, GeoServer can create maps in a variety of output formats.  The server supports most of the available tools e.g. OpenLayer, leaflet, Google Maps, Google Earth, Microsoft Bing Maps, and MapBox, etc., and can connect with ESRI ArcGIS and QGIS software.

3.6.3       Anchoring google mapping tools  :

• Google Earth: For accessing Google map resources with very few subscriptions paying to Google, the IBF platform will be able to utilize all Google GIS features accessed by Geoserver, geonede server,  user end desktop QGIS and ArcGIS software( free)  for analyzing the impact of all elements, calculate/estimate impact number and types of elements are likely to impact, select particular elements are damaged, hotspot location of multi-hazards and publishing all impacts through MHEWS-IBF platform. 

• Google Earth Engine:  Most powerful and up-to-date satellite images are included to analyze all the necessary features of crop- agriculture, livestock rangeland, vegetation coverage , waterbody, , land cover, land use, agroecology, soil degradation, desertification, etc., can be created by using the readily available code and necessary customization. By using this tool, the sector department will be able to define pasture biomass conditions, delineate pastureland areas with classification, and select cultivable forage cropping areas, water resources, etc for weather and Climate-related risk and vulnerability analysis. 

1. Google Common Alerting Protocol(CAP) – Public alert (Freeware)  :  Using the location information in a CAP alert allows Google Public Alerts to focus the display of an alert to users in a particular area. In addition to the user’s search term, the display is governed within Google Public Alerts by a relative priority based on CAP alert values such as Severity, Urgency, and Certainty, as well as date/time values. Users interested in all active alerts in an area can use the homepage at http://www.google.org/publicalerts.

3.6.4  Installation and Configuration of Surveying Apps.   

1. Open Layer:  Open Layer is a client mapping web GIS application. Local volunteer/surveyor can use open layer apps for capturing location and on-the-fly mapping, incorporating pictures, and geolocation placemarks to GeoServer for publishing.

• GPS data logger and GPS essential apps are alternatives to Open Layer and the most useful surveying tools. It can capture any placemark(point), line (road network), and polygon features  ( Ger Location, grazing areas, Pasture location, river cross-section, can track vulnerable road, road network ) and save as kmz, kml format. In the given case, at the local level, the team (sector department-led technical group) asked any volunteers to send the placemark of IDPs/settlements location/herder grazing areas, multi-hazard affected areas e.g. flood/flash flood incidence place with geolocation captured photograph to send via WhatsApp/google drive/Facebook etc. for impact analyses, anticipatory action planning, contingency planning and, response financing. 

3.6.5  Deploying File-Sharing Tools :

An online web application will be developed and linked to a database server( MSSQL/Oracle, PostgreSQL, MySQL, etc.). However, the sector department uploads a GIS Shapefile, a CSV file, a picture, and documents to the geode and database server.

3.6.6 Implementing Web converting common alerting protocol (CAP )apps :

Several tools are available for developing CAP on marking the location of multi-hazards with thresholds of impact ( both in point and polygon shape files) that can be plotted with the map, with some technical briefing of color-coded thresholds over the map. The CAP-enabled emergency alerting system e.g. Google Public Alerts freeware, paid service like ESRI ArcGIS platform, etc.

3.7 Rationale of ICT-integrated Interoperable Online NMHEWS platform:

ICT System: The basic principle of the MHEWS-Impact-based forecast (IBF) online platform is to shift from the regular pattern of weather forecasters ( what weather would be) to translating the weather phenomena to what weather will do and how it will interact with the ground. The complete functional system will be able to catch weather inputs and process with an ICT-engineered system capacity to interpret weather-induced advisories, anticipatory impacts, the severity of impending risks and vulnerabilities, and anticipatory loss and damage scenarios with higher spatial and temporal resolution for the vulnerable sectors, elements, and community.

1. Installation of  ground-level hybrid  observation mechanism  :
2. Considering  the multiple functionalities of the IBF system, from capturing the wide range of impact information from the ground, processing big data, inclusive participation of a wide range of stakeholders, and keeping the target audience updated about ongoing weather hazardous phenomena informed, IBF need to well interface with ground level hybrid  observations( figure 18) by engaging the community, sectoral technical experts working at the last-mile, volunteers, SoDMA designated technical and volunteering teams at the last-mile
3. MHEWS-Impact-based forecast (IBF) online platform can leverage to deploy and activate crowd-sourced observation mechanisms for getting comprehensive and higher resolution of ground-level weather parameters, characteristic of extreme weather parameters on the prevailing conditions for better impact analysis and bringing detailed risk scenarios of the grounds, e.g., which elements are impacting at what level, etc.

• Weather-induced risk and vulnerability tracking, interpretation, and dissemination :

A hybrid (figure 18 ) surface observation mechanism (AWS, manual met stations, crowdsource observations) essentially has a comprehensive observation for understanding the trend of weather patterns, extreme characteristics, frequency, and intensity. Based on weekly, monthly, sub-seasonal, and seasonal anomalies, and the incidence of multi-hazard events, develop a complete GIS map-based analysis disseminated through the online geospatial portal to keep the planning desk informed. This is a critical informed tool for planning tasks at every level so that every audience can understand the weather pattern, extreme characteristics, frequency, and intensity of weather-related hazards quite comprehensively for planning the SOP and business community plan for next season/ year accordingly.

• Multi-hazard and disaster incidence and situation tracking and archive:
• IBF needs to have a track record of how hazardous weather phenomena turn into multi-hazards and disasters, and the incidence of loss and damage (L&D) information required.
• Leveraging the record keeping and disseminating a wide range of forecasting products, outlook, and advisories on weather, and simultaneously to the similar interpretation of observed weather.
• Effective inputs for developing annual climatology, climate change paradigm from systematic surface observation, global and regional climate change model outputs, and creating comprehensive reports.

• Scope of verification and retrofitting, and correctness of the Dynamical downscaling model:
• Ground-level compressive observed, weather phenomena, elements level impacts, sectoral level impacts, and loss and damage scenarios will be able to provide attribute information for model fitness, forecast verification, and bias correctness at the end of the day.
• Leverage to develop the statistical model with the spatial and temporal resolution, high-resolution Dynamic downscale model on rapidly developing weather systems, e.g., Sand and dust storm, heatwave, dry spell, convective weather events (heavy rain, thunderstorm, hailstorm, lightning), severe thunderstorms, , high wind-induced impacts, heatwave, sand/dust storm) that have caused human lives and lost livestock.

• Effective risk communication and sectoral coordination :

Leveraged to develop a complete culture of compliance with mandatory stakeholders’ interactivity to provide risk and vulnerability data inputs, risk interpretation of risk on every forecast, risk data coordination, and exchange of all relevant stakeholders. 

3.8 Improving Risk Knowledge of stakeholders

As it has been said that the Somalia having multiple factors of the paradox of fragmented governance, diverse multi-hazard risk paradigm, climate impact, and conflicts, internal displacement triggered multiple-level risks and vulnerabilities to food security and livelihoods of the population living at the last-mile, the livelihood of the last-mile  Somalian climate frontline population is mostly agropastoral and impacted by the extreme weather events. However, the frontline community has little access to climate early warning. FCV context governance paradigm attributes ICT-driven disaster risk governance as the tangible solution to reach out to the climate frontline community and make them the key informants for providing multi-hazard exposure, risk, and vulnerabilities, and keep them informed about the impending multi-hazards to get them well prepared to respond to the crisis management.    Figure 1 reveals that the state actor service delivery is inadequately decentralized, the field mission identified that the silo approached disaster risk management services being carried almost all actors are engaged. Ironically, the CSOs are the prime actors involved in last-mile disaster risk management and local development. The following options are harmonized for bridging the last-mile multi-hazard risk knowledge gaps.

1. MHEWS connected ICT-based interactive mobile apps(GPS survey apps, Kobo-toolbox, GIS map Survey apps ) for connectivity with the last-mile climate-vulnerable community
2. Conduct mobile apps based on climate exposure, risk and vulnerability assessment
3. Conduct mobile apps for the VAC/actors, community based on RPDNA
4. Develop mobile apps for the Crop-agriculture sector so that farmers as primary informants can send elements specific ( standing crops, water availability & stress, rainfall variability data, crop loss data, crop yields, pest manifestation, market price, L&DS, etc)  specific georeferenced risk and vulnerability information and receive classified risk information for risk management and resilience building.
5. Improve national broadcasting for enhancing disaster risk knowledge, emergency preparedness, response, recovery, emergency evacuation, etc.

3.9 Improving Sector Value Chain Operators’ Risk Knowledge:

Rationale for transforming into ICT-driven multi-hazard risk governance.

1. Government state actors lack ( MoPIED) ICT-driven risk knowledge management capacity, developing inter-sector coordination, and a partnership mechanism for climate risk information sharing. They also lack a management information system for inventorying risk information at the institutional level.
2. Poor information management staffing patterns, inadequate ICT equipment, and an MIS system for inventorying the elements’ hazard impacts.
3. Post-disaster L&Ds assessment is being conducted through part-time enumerators, inadequate tools, methodology, and process, and elements specific georeferenced information is not collected to support next-level impact forecasts of impending hazardous weather.
4. Establish digital formal coordination and partnerships among state actors, non-state actors, and the private sector to collaborate and coordinate last-mile risk information management and develop tailored informed planning tools for the DRR/CCA scheme design and implementation.
5. MoU and mandates for State control and private broadcasters and telephone companies do not have an accountability framework. The regulatory authority (NCA) is imposing mandates for the last-mile actors to hold accountable for time-series wealth forecasts, special weather bulletins, weather warning message broadcasting, dissemination, etc.
6. Risk-informed tools, evidence-based tools to improve state actors’ policy, mandates, institutional accountability, and support for  fiscal resources to mobilize for the last-line risk-resilient development (DRR,CCA, NbS)
7. Expect some humanitarian assistance ( food) the government lacks of fiscal incentives for implementing climate-adaptive livelihood interventions for the frontline community

3.10 Following are the recommendations for Disaster Risk Knowledge Management Governance

A multi-hazard risk repository and risk knowledge bank are precursors to instrumentalizing the EW4ALL systemic functionality, in which Somalia needs to make significant progress.  

1. Improving data-driven decision making: The climate vulnerable key sector ministry, SoDMA of  MoHAMD, MoEWR, MoAI, MoLFR, MoH, MoFBE, etc.  Somalia needs to establish a national climate risk and vulnerability assessment committee (VAC)/Taskforce team represented by sectoral technical experts/stakeholders. Inadequate consensus and agreement between state actors, humanitarian actors, stakeholders, UN agencies, INGOs, local NGOs, and CSO engagement over risk assessment, as well as collecting locally sourced climate data. Inadequate structure and process of the national statistical data clearinghouse for conducting census survey, collection of sex, age, and disability disaggregated data (SADD) from the community and household level. The roadmap intended to establish and mandate accountability of institutional/stakeholders for the collection of climate risk and vulnerability disaggregated datasets on agriculture, water, livestock, fisheries, agroforestry, WASH, physical infrastructures & communication, municipalities & urban centers, commercial hubs, IDP, human settlements, and housing sectors to support climate and multi-hazard risk mapping, risk and vulnerability profiling, and repository development. The UN Cluster system is still not harmonized with the government disaster risk management and development framework, state actor-driven humanitarian action, and national risk management coordination framework.

Figure  10: Disaggregated data collection framework for collection of Age, sex, disability disaggregated data(SADD) , sector-level elements specific attribute data  ( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

1. Establish digital Partnerships and coordination: The system will hold every stakeholder accountable for conducting multi-hazard risk assessment and risk knowledge management. It will work as a de facto platform for connecting state, nonstate, and private sector climate risk and vulnerability assessment, RDPNA, and PDNA, and risk knowledge management at the local levels. Establish adequate consensus and agreement between state actors, humanitarian actors, stakeholders, UN agencies, INGO consortium, local NGO consortium, and CSO engagement over risk assessment, as well as collecting locally sourced climate data.

• Developing GIS-based risk atlas & Database:  SoDMA and sector departments need to develop a geospatial database, a GIS-based map, a District-level inadequate GIS base map, and a risk atlas for analyzing the GIS-based multi-hazard risk and vulnerability, inadequate informed tools for disaster preparedness and humanitarian response planning. Prepare the Hazard database.

• MIS & GIS setup at local level sector departments:  install MIS & GIS systems at the district administration  and sector department levels for analyzing the GIS-based multi-hazard risk and vulnerability, inadequately informed tools for disaster preparedness and humanitarian response planning.

• Establishment of Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC):

Most urgently, the Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Committee (RVAC) should be established with representatives of all stakeholders (mentioned in the above disaggregated data collection framework). The one-apps system will govern the RVAC committee, and all the stakeholders, representative groups, smallholder farmers, fishermen, herders, IDPs,  other livelihood groups, and individuals would be the primary informants to send the elements specific information through customized survey apps( Kobo-Toolbox).   It can be conducted remotely by following the functional framework of community-level climate /multi-hazard risk and vulnerability assessment.

Figure 11: Community Risk Assessment Framework( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

Table:  Tools to facilitate the RVAC team to conduct the  assessment

3.11  Restructuring of Stakeholder Partnership & Coordination Mechanism       

The full-scale implementation of EW4ALL Pillar Actions requires indispensable coordination and service delivery capacities to mandate the connectedness of stakeholders with the system and ensure it remains operational for demand-driven service deliveries. The engineering aspect of the MHEWS platform is designed with an ICT-enabled robust architecture for optimum operability with interfacing multiple sources of information and recurrent processability, and the IBF product output system optimally works on an interactive partnership of stakeholders across the country. The sector-specific impact level analysis of the hazardous weather parameters sought the involvement of designated specialized government national hydrometeorological organizations (NMHS), sectoral departments, R&D organizations & specialists, academia, mandated partners, commercial stakeholders, herders, and the vulnerable community to contribute inputs for making IBF readily available and on time. 

Figure 12: Stakeholder map (Proposed)

Mandating the stakeholders above through a set of standard operating procedures (SoP ) viably to a common consensus of a proactive, time-critical partnership and collaboration amongst the wide range of technical partners and agencies engaged in meteorology, climatology, hydrology, disaster risk management, local government sectors, pre-disaster risk assessment group, post-disaster damage, loss, and needs assessment (PDNA) group, disaster first-responders, vulnerable community, herders group, etc., for the contribution.  The IBF system thus ensures functional partnership by encouraging stakeholders to access the platform with a sense of ownership, imperatively to demand-driven weather information service delivery for the MHEWS required data/information process, informed tools development, and deliverables to climate & disaster emergency management.

The IBF process depends on the multifaceted, interactive, functional, regular, and proactive coordination mechanism amongst all stakeholders. The data-sharing protocol for the MHEWS-led impact forecasting process. The MHEWS needs to classify the stakeholder categories, the responsibilities over risk information coordination, risks, and impending impact interpretation over the imminent onset of extreme weather events, and manage the risk and vulnerabilities of induced disaster.

3.12   Partnership for Data Coordination and Exchange Mechanism for preparing IBF

The initial MHEWS-supported Impact-based forecast(IBF) workflow analyzes the impacts of impending extreme weather that has just been forecasted. Still, the whole MHEWS mechanism demands multiple layers of information, e.g., requisites of background risk & vulnerability datasets are essential. The IBF process comes across over the steps and primarily to do a background check of the persistent risk and vulnerabilities being inherited from the landscape, local weather & climate system, and inbuilt environmental context, and secondly to estimate the risk, vulnerability, exposure, and sensitivity over the standing elements(annexure 1)  at the event of impending extreme /hazardous weather are likely to be interacting with the ground, thirdly, stakeholders need to know how and what level of frequencies of the extreme weather events are turning multi-hazards. Finally, the whole IBF mechanism needs to track hazardous events until they dissipate and take stock of the trail of L&D being yielded by the localized disaster.

(Figure : IBF Framework , Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam )

Considering the above functional steps, the IBF workflow is segmented into several workstreams, and at any given stage, stakeholder engagement is critical. The integrated impact-based forecast(IBF) process needs to depend on an input system of data capture, repository, and archives of root-level sectoral and element risk and vulnerability data for the purpose-driven IBF process. The partners and stakeholders must supply their climate risk and vulnerability (CRVA)  data and information to review the persistent risks and vulnerabilities and push for recurrently updating information to the IBF system.

For analyzing the high-impacts, the IBF impact analysts(meteorologists)  team always needs to do the background checks (from the impact database) for similar weather events being anticipated and impending as high-impact weather conditions. The partnership process to be mandated by the essential background (risk repository development and understanding)  works need to be done by the partners for strengthening the IBF process, as it is such a hybrid process that forecasters, sector/elements risk & vulnerability analysts always need to be well concerted with climate change impacts, climate variables/parameters, weather, impending multi-hazards, spatiotemporal impact interpretation, weather risk and vulnerability assessment and risk prioritizations. 

All participating stakeholders/partners/authorities/vulnerable communities are to be mandated to contribute elements specific to baseline risk and vulnerability information for the effectiveness and efficiency of the system- IBF partnership mechanism. The partnership mechanism renders two-way communication, e.g., giving the inputs baseline risk, vulnerability geolocation information of every element, and harmonizing the risk-informed tools, benefiting the sectoral planning process, which continues even after the development and implementation of impact-based forecasting services. Members of the partnership can monitor the effectiveness of forecasts and warnings and provide feedback for improvement.

Partners have important roles in risk communication and analyzing the impact on forecasts and warnings. Essential partners are to be mandated with responsibilities for early actions to prepare for and respond to hazardous weather and climate events. These actions include advising vulnerable communities on what to do in extreme weather or climate events, combining partners’ anticipatory advice with impact-based advice.

3.13 Upgradation and Activation of Interoperable Situation Room and  NMHEWS at NMHEWC of SoDMA:

Diagram of Interoperable Situation Room and  NMHEWS at NMHEWC of SoDMA

• Design and implementation of an online interoperable NMHEWS  system to access weather parameters of Somalian terrestrial weather, hydromet observation network, and the acquisition of the time-series weather ECV parameters, data calibration, colligation, parameter aggregation, etc.  
• API data Linkages with the regional weather/climate information data hubs (ICPAC), essentially to inform the weather & climate warning system
• API data Linkages to access real-time ECV & weather parameters from the transboundary ( Ethiopia & Kenya) observation networks ( heavy rainfall data, flood level data, catchment area hydrological datasets, river level datasets, wind speed, drought, storms, etc)
• API data Linkages to access WMO’s regional DCPCs, RSMC, WMO Information System (WIS) network, WMO GTS network, EUMETCast data hubs, and ECMWF data hubs.
• Accessing the Indian Ocean Tsunami Alert Center in Jakarta, Indonesia.
• Accessing UN Agency produce risk information- FAO, WFP,     Anchoring FAO-SWALIM, IOM-DTM (Displacement Tracking matrix), UNHCR Operational data portal, WFP( Food Security ), WFP Logistic network/telecommunication system, WASH Cluster database, CREWS Initiative, RIMES, CIMA Research Foundation myDEWETRA, ICPAC forecast/outlook,  Education Cluster Database, UNICEF-MICS, World Bank ( GFDRR, Databank), UNOCHA -INFROM, Food Security and Analysis Unit (FSNAU) & IDEA of FAO, IFRC-Anticipatory Hub, USAID-FEWSNET, Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF)etc., for feeding information in integrated multi-hazard early warning system (MHEWS & impact forecasting support.
• Accessing real-time satellite-based atmospheric observation systems, installations of  PUMA (Preparation for the Use of Meteo-sat in Africa) 2025 satellite links (EUMETCast, ECMWF, European Met services, NOAA, Indian Ocean network, The Regional Basic Climatological Network (RBCN ), Global Terrestrial Network – Rivers (GTN-R), etc., for the acquisition of Basic Hydro-Meteorological Data (BMD).
• The EW4ALL Situation room is intended to support the four pillars actions by supplying climate risk information, tailored, informed  tools, complementing the EW4ALL action and process.

3.14 NMHEWS responsibilities for improving risk knowledge :

3.14.1  Understanding Disaster Risk of the Locality

Following local stakeholders, the sector extension department, the local CPC, and stakeholders must understand the climate risk and vulnerabilities.

Figure 13 : Enhancing risk knowledge of frontline actors

3.14.2     Frontline community needs to understand Disaster Risk in their Locality

The vulnerable community always combats the persistent and impending climate and multi-hazard risk phenomena to sustain their livelihood and safeguard their livelihood assets. But the climate perturbation is threatening the food &  livelihood security in the long run. However, the community needs to understand the risk drivers of the locality, what factors affect the displacement of the vulnerable community. Given the Somalian landscape, which has a persistent drought and an arid climate in the Horn of Africa, the current El Nino and La Nina contribute to hazardous weather events like heavy rainfall-induced flooding in the areas. Due to the vast elongated coastline of the Horn of Africa, the Coastal cities, townships, and dispersed settlements of the countries are highly vulnerable to western Indian Ocean storm surges, and cyclone-induced storm surges can potentially originate from the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Considering the diverse and rapidly changing climate conditions, the ICT enables early warning and risk-informed tools that will support the community in undertaking anticipatory action, and appropriate adaptive preventive measures are required for saving lives and properties. 

3.14.3     Enhancing the risk knowledge of Smallholder crop farmers:

 In Somalia, the country’s economy mainly depends on livestock, crop agriculture, and fisheries. The Integrated agropastoral,  agroforestry development, and fisheries are boosting the rural economy. Smallholder farmers can hardly access tailor-made weather and climate information, weather warnings, and precision-level multi-hazard early warnings to prepare for and respond to impending hazardous weather. In the long run, they must protect their livelihood assets (crop-agriculture, livestock, fisheries, agroforests, fruit gardening, etc.), which requires a precision level and specific early warning and advisory on anticipatory actions.  Smallholder and commercial farmers’ value chain operators must understand localized weather anomalies. Still, the precision level of weather forecasts and alerts enables them to take anticipatory actions and make adaptations.

The anticipatory action planners, value chain operators, commercial entrepreneurs, market promoters, and sector extension officers need to have elements of specific ground-level time-series information provided by the farmers

All georeferenced, tailor-made information can be disseminated through online portals or mobile apps, with maps showing the impact of changing weather conditions. In this regard, ICT-based tools would be helpful as evidence-based anticipatory action planning for minimizing the loss and damage of productive assets/elements on the ground.

3.14.4     Climate Vulnerable Productive Sector Departments :

1. Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment:

 Sectoral needs to understand the Exposure, Sensitivity, Vulnerability, and Risk of all the elements on the ground through the conducted locality risk assessment. The department must constantly be updated about weather anomalies, warnings, alerts, etc. The sector department needs to perform a climate risk and vulnerability assessment of sectoral elements, develop a risk repository, and maintain it in the weather hazard calendar and crop calendar.

 The most vulnerable sectors are livestock, crop agriculture, water, fisheries, and WASH. Sector-level stakeholders, such as lead farmers, smallholder farmers, commercial farmers, value chain operators, CSOs, community leaders, Mosque Imams, etc., should contribute sector-level risk and vulnerability information to enhance sector-level risk knowledge.

3.14.5     Improving risk knowledge of Civil Protection  Committee(CPC)/Disaster management Committee :

Somalia needs a Civil Protection Committee (CPC)/Disaster Management Committee to support the risk assessment, enhance community risk knowledge and risk perception, and support end-to-end and community-based early warning systems. The CPC/DMC needs to be the key informant, and the committee needs to be connected with ICT tools/mobile apps for sending community-level L&Ds information, event situations of multi-hazards turning into disaster events, community humanitarian needs and priorities, etc.

( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

Figure 14 :

Currently, SoDMA and other sector departments conduct post-disaster L&D assessments with support from the Mosque Imam during Friday prayers.  In the ICT based open-ended, MHEWS, every CPC stakeholder/participant will be able to act as a primary informant and source information for the society and  can play a significant role  in local-level disaster risk management, be able to send event situation updates, send local L&D updates, and develop a local Disaster preparedness, response, and recovery plan.

3.14.6     Improving risk knowledge of Humanitarian actors  :

In the event of impending dangerous multi-hazards, humanitarian actors need to access time-critical impact forecasts for planning forecast-based immediate anticipatory action, considering the scale, intensity, and scalability of impending multi-hazards likely to cause L&Ds on the ground. ICT-based tools can improve risk information management and facilitate humanitarian action.   ICT-based georeferenced emergency management is required to conduct emergency preparedness and responses. IT apps based on 5W (Who, will be doing what, where, when, and how ) for intervention SoP and standing orders can avoid overarching planning, duplicity of actions, govern hard-to-reach areas, and uniformly mobilize humanitarian assistance at the last-mile.

3.14.7     Improving risk knowledge of entrepreneurs & Value Chain Operators

The Value Chain Operators and Entrepreneurs need to be updated about the weather forecast, as impending extreme weather events are likely to hamper their daily value chain operations and daily business, input supplies, output markets, as the Somalian economy largely depends on crop agriculture and livestock, etc., the weather risk-informed whole value chain operations.  The entrepreneurs need to know what extreme weather conditions can impact the market value chain, Process value chain, storage facility, etc. The precision level impacts weather forecasts and nowcasting services required for better operations to minimize the L&Ds and undertake cost-in-action based on the estimates.  

3.14.8     Improving risk knowledge of Local Governments ( City, Municipality, Urban councils ) actors to deal with the climate crisis

For inclusive and risk—informed local-level sectoral development planning, local governments (City corporations, municipalities, and towns) need to depend on tailored and climate risk-informed tools. In the Somali harsh climate regime, the landscape is highly vulnerable to climate change-induced multi-hazards.  Water and livelihood security for any given part of the country are in peril. Therefore, high-value elements, e.g., crowded cities, municipalities, etc., need point-based weather forecasts. The urban local government needs to conduct climate and multi-hazard risk and vulnerability assessments and to develop a repository of urban elements and  GIS maps (risk profile atlas ) showing impacts of multi-hazards and analysis on how these elements are getting vulnerable to flooding levels, landslides, dust and sandstorms, and other multi-dimensional risks of the locality.

GIS map-based multi-hazard maps, as well as a repository of elements of the local government instructions, basic service delivery structures, and utility services, can support local government in informed planning.  The dashboard on risk and vulnerability information, historical multi hazards background, Persistent climate risks and vulnerability, Changing climate and recurrence of the hazardous events, nature of impending multi hazards on the ground can support Government duty bearer and planning desk for risks informed Action planning, annual development fund and  Multi year action planning and multifaceted development approach for the sectors.

3.14.9     Improving risk knowledge of Duty Bearer/Local Disaster Management Committee (DMC)/Civil Protection Committee : 

 Improving disaster risk knowledge entails the ICT-based and geospatial tools system being easily accessible to the frontline community at the last mile, actors, stakeholders, duty bearers, and the government itself.   The whole society needs to understand the country’s persistent and impending climate risk and vulnerabilities to adapt their livelihood to the crisis and social capital to manage disaster risk at the neighborhood and community level. The 80% mobile penetration is a great imperative to DMC/CPC for connecting the community via social networking tools, and the online DMC/CPC committee (WhatsApp, Telegram, Disaster Alert apps) will be able to interact with Online apps, the geo-spatial risk information portal. The local DMC /CPC can play a pivotal and participatory role in networking and mobilizing the community for disaster preparedness, response, and recovery efforts.

4.0 Pillar 2 : Improving surface observation, Monitoring, and Forecasting

4.1 The existing hydro met services- Somalia faces daunting challenges in implementing Pillar 2 for the following reasons   :

• WMO still has not conducted Country Hydromet Diagnostics (CHD) assessments to stock take of functional stations of existing hydromet stations that are currently operational, and acquisition of the types of parameters of weather observation data. WMO essentially to conduct CHD and determining the geographically positioned number of basic surface observation stations and automatic weather stations (synoptic capability) required for acquiring Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) , requirements of EMMETCast atmospheric observation data acquisition, accessing the ECMWF Short-range forecast synoptic charts and forecast data, requirements of telemetry river level monitoring, and floating buoys-based sea-surface observation. By conducting all those assessments, WMO needs to develop a system upgrade strategy and improve weather observation and detection mechanisms.
• WMO needs to conduct an assessment of the operational status of all installed Hydromet observation stations in Somalia and identify GBON (Global Basic Observing Network) standard, operational capacity, and type of instruments installed for the kinds of weather parameters data acquisition, review the sitting classification for the surface observations on stations on land, procedure for updating the guide to instruments and methods of observation, etc., and provide the necessary technical assistance and diagnostic reports for upgrading stations to  GBON standards. WMO to Develop a GBON compliance National observation network development plan with budgets based on the Somalian landscape, arid climatology, landcover types, and elongated vast sea proximity context, determine to identify and address type of observation, forecast model, impact-based forecasting, climate and hydrometeorological outlooks are being required for Somalia and close the  service delivery capacity gaps for priority hazards, such as heatwaves, floods, tropical cyclones, persistent and  flash droughts etc.,

4.1     Current forecasting mechanism of Somalia    :

Currently, the national hydrometeorological working group of MoEWR acts as an ad hoc body for conducting observation and providing a limited extent of daily and weekly forecasting of rainfall and temperature and operational flood forecasts, as shown in the following diagram.

Figure 15 : Current Forecasting mechanism of Somalia   

4.2 Indicative challenges in national forecasting service delivery :

• The MoEWR led an ad-hoc hydromet Working Group, which is working independently to develop rainfall and flood forecasts disseminated through the FAOSWALIM web portal.
• A few hydrometeor observation stations are acquiring rainfall  (AWS) parameters. ECVs are not observed across the stations, which is a significant challenge for surface observations and forecast verification.
•  The MoEWR still depends on global forecast models (GFS, WRF) for forecasting, and the country still lacks a precision-level, high-resolution, and daily weather forecasting facility.
• WMO has still not conducted a diagnostic assessment of the operational status of all installed Hydromet observation stations in Somalia, which addresses the considerable gaps in surface observations, improving nowcasting facilities, and forecasting verifications as well
• Still, the country does not have institutional arrangements for establishing the national met agency, national metrological-hydrological services  ( NMHS)   organization for FCV contextuality of the governance process.
• There is still no partnership, collaboration, mandates, or coordination structure among central and state government actors to work collaboratively on improving national hydrometeorological services.
• Still SoDMA/MoEWR having lacs of institutional policy and programmatic mandates  and accountability for implementing core activities of improving weather observation, providing daily/weekly short-range forecasting, hazard monitoring, detection, and sharing output services for the wider root-level stakeholders and other relevant sector departments as risk mitigation efforts

4.3 Recommendations on improving  the national forecasting service delivery :

To overcome the complexities in partnership, collaboration, mandates, or coordination, consensus-building is emphasized to contribute to the implementation of national hydromet service deliverability. The tangible solution is to implement an ICT-Web-based system capable of handling interoperability and allowing multiple organizations and stakeholders to work together to deliver hydromet services, weather warnings, common alerts, and impact forecasting. The diagram below outlines an interoperable NMHEWC system with functional linkages with stakeholders through the ICT-online task management system and procedures.

Figure 16 : Proposed interoperable NMHEWC system for all actors and stakeholders to work together( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

The above functional diagram illustrates that the sectors need to contribute to an ICT-based system for improving the development of the operational forecast value chain. 

• Improving  homegrown short-range forecasting Capacity :
• Implementation of UNDRR CREWS initiative for improving interoperable forecasting capability
• Improving FAOSWALIM’s current flood forecasts, meshing with transboundary data-driven flood forecasting, and precision-level flood warning of the two major river systems of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers of Somalia  

Figure 17: Some of the Hydro-met stations managed by the MoEWR

4.4 Recommendations on improving the sector-specific national forecasting service delivery :

1. Mandate relevant stakeholders ( state and non-state ) in collection and coordination of Crowdsource information onset of weather emergencies:  Developing district and community level crowdsource network ( WhatsApp, Telegram, Facebook, Kobo-toolbox, SurveyMonkey, GPS logger, GPS essential) connecting all vulnerable herders, smallholder farmers, community, s, enterprises, CSO running projects team, lead farmers, financing institutions, credit operators, mobile baking outlets, insurance companies, etc., for collecting onset weather conditions,  impacts over the elements, onset-hazard event situation updates via interoperable NMHEWS running apps, social networking tools etc.
2. Human-driven tracking of every on-set multi-hazard impacts/incidence is currently taking place on the ground, e.g., heavy-rainfall induced flash-floodings, sand & dust storms, thunderstorms, tornadoes & hailstorms, ongoing event situation, trails of loss & damage figures.
3. Activating hybrid observations( AWS and human-driven)  for instantly tracking a convective weather system /rapidly developing weather conditions in any given season, damaging winds ( area of extent) induced storm, constant  windspeed, sand & dust storms, etc.,  monitoring,
4. Setting up lighting detectors and other AWS sensors for tracking RDT near the high-value elements ( City, municipality)  
5. Mandating volunteers to remain alert for collecting crowdsourced event situation/incidence (geolocation)

Figure 18 : Proposed hybrid observation mechanism( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

4.5 Recommendations on improving hydrometeorological services: :

1. Installation of an independent National Meteorological Agency ( NMA) :

• Installation of jointly operational and maintained by the key agencies, e.g.,  MoEWR, SoDMA, MoAI, MoLFR, MoH, MoFBE, for improving existing hydromet stations, upgradation of manual stations, and the newly installed AWS for the acquisition of ECVs.
  • Establish linkage with the WMO regional specialized meteorological centers (RMC).
  • Establish linkage with regional and transboundary NMHS organizations/networks.
  • Provisioning long-term operational budgets of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs)
  • Installation of real-time satellite-based atmosphere observation systems, Preparation for the Use of Meteosat in Africa (PUMA) 2025 satellite links (EUMETCast, ECMWF, European Met services, NOAA, Indian Ocean network, The Regional Basic Climatological Network (RBCN), Global Terrestrial Network – Rivers (GTN-R), etc., for the acquisition of Basic Hydro-Meteorological Data (BMD).
  • Improve the coordination mechanism of the weather /climate data information exchange coordination mechanism
  • Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) needs to be signed  between federal sector ministries, sector departments, and other stakeholders ( INGs, UN Agencies, CSOs
  • Improving the Hydrological Status and Outlook System (HydroSOS) with the implementation of CREWS initiatives
  • Installation of high-density AWS of GBON (Global Basic Observing Network) standard for acquisition of ECVs across the country
  • Observation data gathering  from hybrid sources ( livestock herders, smallholder farmers, marketplaces, cities,  municipalities, towns, ports, other KPIs for nowcasting, point-based forecasts and operational forecasts

• Improving  homegrown short-range forecasting Capacity :

The table narrates how to improve forecasting capabilities as advised in the following.

• Improving  Impact Forecasting Capacity :

Figure 19 : Proposed Impact-based -Forecasting (IBF) Framework( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

• Improving Sector-level Impact Forecast and Operational Forecast:

Table: Forecast requirements for Somalia

1. Improving the borehole/water monitoring system:

Somalia Groundwater monitoring: FAO estimates that there are around 600 boreholes across the country, out of which only 35 boreholes hourly acquisition of the parameters of the groundwater table and water quality data is being monitored through the Iridian satellite-connected automatic data monitoring system. However, acquiring many borehole datasets is essential for having the functional and operational status of all essential drinking water points across the country.

Recommendations:

• Due to rainfall variability, dry and hot spells, and an arid climate, La Niña, East Africa frequently experiences reduced rainfall, leading to severe droughts. The groundwater table is severely depleted, and the borehole becomes unusable. Therefore, the groundwater table of the geographical area and hourly/daily monitoring of the borehole water table are essential for ensuring water security and livelihood security. 
• Installation of the groundwater table measuring instrument, water quality testing, and sending information to the central server via apps
• The borehole/water monitoring system is required to develop forecasts on extreme weather impacts on the WASH and water sectors. 

• Improving Crop Agricultural agro-climate forecasting and early warning :

Challenges :

• Significant changes in precipitation and temperature leading to land degradation and other environmental challenges, ultimately leading to water shortages and degradation of crops and livestock.
• Famine is the cause of food insecurity and subsequent flooding in Somalia.

Recommendations:

• UNDRR-CREWS for enhancing the capacity of NMHS( SoDMA, MoEWR) Crop Agricultural sector agroclimatic forecasting and early warning
• Develop climate risk and vulnerable asset management methodology, tools, and guidelines for the crop agriculture sectors and conduct risk assessment.
• FAO, WFP, INGOs, and CSOs need to conduct more research and analysis of the links between early warning, early action, and community-based adaptation to improve anticipation, adaptive capacity, and disaster risk management simultaneously.
• The FAO needs to localize the Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) for Somalia and anchor GIEWS with an ICT-based online database  and geospatial interoperable NMHEWC, connecting smallholder farmers, vulnerable communities, value chain operators, state ( sector department) and non-state actors for supporting the following ;

• Improving Water sector Operational & impact  forecasting:

Challenges :

• There is a lack of climate risk and vulnerability assessment and a water sector-specific repository for tracking and monitoring water bodies for any changes and anomalies in weather parameters over the hydrological and meteorological phenomena.
• Lack of an MoU of data-sharing with the upstream Ethiopian and Kenyan National Hydrological and Meteorological Services (NHMSs) in river flows, reservoirs, groundwater levels, lakes, and soil moisture, in local catchments across the region.
• Lack of integrated hydrological and meteorological early warning systems, impact forecasting, and operational forecasting

Recommendations:

Figure 20: Water sector Operational & impact  forecasting( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

• UNDRR-CREWS initiative Capacity building Support for the sector department for preparing forecasts (warning, alerting, and CAP, bulletin) for the water sector, and sectoral elements
• Develop climate risk and vulnerable asset management methodology, tools, and guidelines for the water sector risk assessment.
• FAOSWALIM, MoEWR, SoDMA need to work with an interoperable and integrated NMHEWC system for providing in
• FAO, WFP, INGOs, and CSOs need to conduct more research and analysis of the links between early warning, early action, and community-based adaptation to improve anticipation, adaptive capacity, and disaster risk management simultaneously.
• FAO Drought portal
• The FAO needs to localize the Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) for Somalia and anchor GIEWS with an ICT-based online database  and geospatial interoperable NMHEWC, connecting smallholder farmers, vulnerable communities, value chain operators, state ( sector department) and non-state actors for supporting the following ;

• Improving livestock sector impact forecasting

Challenges :

• Lack of climate risk and vulnerability assessment, and elements-specific repository for forecasting impact analysis 
• Precipitation variability, extreme temperatures, heat waves, dry spells, droughts, and drying up of waterbodies lead to pastoral degradation, water shortages, and persistent droughts hamper livestock farming.
• Droughts severely affect the livelihoods and food security of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. Moreover, the lack of pasture and shortage of water availability resulting from the drought led to acute morbidity, increasing common diseases, outbreaks, and causing mortality among living animals.
• Famine is the cause of early livestock sales to ensure food security.
• Lack of a weather and climate forecasting system for undertaking anticipatory actions for early stocking inputs for saving livestock population planning, the pricing efficiency of cost-in-action for a two-tier model for capturing the effect of cattle characteristics on impending impacts, and estimation of returns from early selling and minimizing the L&Ds.  

Recommendations:

• CREWS initiative Capacity building Support for the sector department in preparing forecasts (warning, alerting, and CAP) bulletins for the livestock sector and sectoral value chain.
• Develop climate risk and vulnerable asset management methodology, tools, and guidelines for the livestock sectors and conduct risk assessment.
• MoLFR, FAO, WFP, INGOs, CSOs, and value chain operators need to conduct more research and analysis of the links between early warning, early action, livelihood sector adaptive capacity, and disaster risk management.
• Promote the FAO Predictive Livestock Early Warning Information System (PLEWS) with analytics of normalized difference vegetation index data and models against edible vegetation (based on high-resolution satellite imagery and ground truthing), surface water availability, and past data.
• Linkage the FAO  PLEWS with Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) for Somalia and anchor both of the systems with an ICT-based online database management system and geospatial interoperable NMHEWC, connecting smallholder farmers, vulnerable communities, value chain operators, state ( sector department), and non-state actors for supporting the following;

• Improving the Fisheries Sector impact forecasting

Challenges :

• Lack of inventories of fishing boats, fishermen, and weather warning recovery equipment. Lack of operational forecasts for deep-sea fishing.

Recommendations:

• CREWS initiative Capacity building Support for the sector department in preparing forecasts (warning, alerting, and CAP) bulletins for the fisheries sector.

• Improving the health Sector multi-hazard early warning

Challenges :

• Lack of inventories of hospitals, clinics, primary health care centers, IDP healthcare points to map the sector’s service delivery capabilities, Lack of assessment of extreme weather, multi-hazards impact  on the public health sector
• Lack of an early warning system on impending extreme weather parameters (high temperature, high wind, and dust storm, heavy rainfall, flash flooding, etc.), weather-induced diseases and outbreaks are highly likely and can cause human tolls.

Recommendations:

• WHO needs to deploy the Early Warning, Alert and Response System (EWARS) to improve disease outbreak detection, health disorder detection, disease surveillance, and reporting systems in any given extreme weather event, conflict, or natural disaster.
• UNDRR CREWS initiative supports the health sector and the NMHEWC for developing impact forecasts, preparing forecasts (warning, alerting, and CAP), and operational forecasts bulletins on extreme weather events that are impending.

• Improving Common Alerting Protocol(CAP), Operational Forecasts, Impact forecasts for humanitarian sectors

Challenges :

• Silo approach of humanitarian action planning and humanitarian actions being undertaken by the UN cluster system, INGOs, CSOs
• Humanitarian actors depend on regional and European forecasting windows for forecast-based anticipatory early action planning.
• Lack of systemic structures for hazard impact monitoring, event situation update, tracking ripple effects of hazards, and consequential L&Ds inventorying
• coordination of state, non-state actors, and CSOs for the collection of L&D data 

Recommendations:

• Interoperable ICT online-driven NMHEWS needs to develop, CAP, weather warning, forecast-based anticipatory action  (AA)
• UNDRR CREWS initiative supports enhancing core stakeholder capacity on developing impact forecasts, preparing forecasts (warning, alerting, and CAP), and operational forecasts bulletins on extreme weather events that are impending for supporting humanitarian action.

4.6 Improving hybrid observation 

Installation of hybrid observations system: The system includes automated weather stations, flood level monitoring, groundwater table & boreholes /drinking water point monitoring, surface water body monitoring, crop monitoring, livestock herders monitoring,  productive sector’s value chain (input, output, market system), crowd-sourced multi-hazard incident tracking, multi-hazard & disaster event situation update, Loss and damage monitoring, disaster hotspot tracking etc.,  

Figure 21 :  Improving hybrid observation ( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

5.0 Pillar 3 Implementation Strategy ( Warning dissemination and communication)

Risk communication and dissemination are the most critical components of the EW4ALL value chain process, which needs to be instrumental and functional at a robust level to keep the frontline timely and sufficiently informed about the impending extreme weather events and induced multi-hazards that are highly likely to be impending and interact with the ground. It is good leverage that Somalia’s cell phone penetration rate is significant, at 73 % of the Population.[1]  The cell phones (comprising 83% in urban areas, 72% in IDP camps, and 55% in rural areas),  being factored mainly by the Mobile money, embedded financial opportunity in Somalia that enables foreign and local remitters with a convenient, affordable, and fast mobile money, which has been widely used. These imperatives and opportunities can be harmonized with policy and programmatic actions for creating communication & dissemination strategies of early warning information to the public alerts. The currently running SMS/IVR/cell broadcast services cover a limited extent, are not even user-friendly, and do not target multi-lingual audiences. The telecommunications regulator in Somalia (the NCA) is in a unique position to foster collaboration between warning dissemination organizations and information providers; since the NCA regulates the telecommunications sector, ICT sector, and broadcasting sector, it can manage and develop guidelines and regulations to support timely alert dissemination and communications.

Ensuring that IT systems, data storage, and sharing mechanisms are secured, resilient, and functional is expected to enhance NMHEWC’s capabilities to send alert warnings during the onset of hazards. Accessing hazard and forecast information from various source organizations would allow NMHEWC to disseminate warnings through different communication channels (TV, radio, SMS, and social media), anticipating impending risk. Capacity strengthening and risk communication are as follows;

5.1 Indicative Challenges of  Warning dissemination and communication

1. Lack of terrestrial Broadcasting(AM Radio/Terrestrial TV):

Figure 22 : Existing commercial FM radio services

 This is the only easily accessible broadcasting system a Radio set can receive over the last mile. Unfortunately, Somalia’s Amplitude Modulation (AM) radio broadcasts were suspended due to political fragility and conflict-related issues. Therefore, the dispersedly located poor households in hard-to-reach areas cannot access the AM Radio or FM radio due to FM radio broadcast limits. Thus, remote households need to depend on cascading people-to-people spreading warning messages. Sometimes, the local mosque-based Imam and community leader play some roles in spreading bad weather alerts. The figure below shows that the remote household and fishing boats do not have access to the daily weather bulletin

Recommendations :

The Somalian federal government and the state government need to ensure AM broadcasts for the remote, poor households.  Until this barrier is overcome, the remote community needs to depend on SMS, IVR, and Cell broadcast, while cell phone operators are being held accountable to send free SMS, IVR, and Cell broadcasts

1. Lack of a Broadcasting policy framework, accountability,  mandates, and standard operating procedures (SoP) on how broadcasters will access national weather forecasts and broadcast weather  bulletins, and special weather warnings:

Since Somalia has yet to institutionalize the national meteorological agency (NMA) for full-fledged forecasting operational capability, to give daily weather forecasts on essential Climate Variables(ECV). Ironically, the only rainfall is being prepared by the MoEWR hydromet services, but the national broadcaster does not regularly pick up the broadcasts; rather, they do use third-party commercial forecasting tools (windy, Ventskey, Zoom Earth, etc.) and do broadcast weather on an ad hoc basis. Therefore, the climate frontline community can not access specialized and precision-level forecasts, special weather bulletins, due to the unavailability of an operational SoP in place.

Recommendation :

• UNDRR-CREWS initiative needs to conduct an assessment of existing forecasts quality, timeliness, specific-temporal scale, weather warming , special weather bulletin development capacity, bulletin quality, etc, and simultaneously develop a brief SoP for the broadcasts so that the EW4ALL value chain is ensured.
• NCA needs to develop SoP on how to channelize the risk/forecast communication, dissemination and coordinate mechanisms on how the district/community level coordinates local CPC/DMC, CSOs, NGOs, Mosque imam will communicate warning alerts to households during emergencies for evacuation and preparedness ( Cyclone, flash flooding)
• Develop SoP on promoting a social journalism mechanism led by the youth group, local journalists, youth journalists, community volunteers through social networks (Facebook, YouTube, WhatsApp, Telegram, etc).

• Lack of NCA MoU with broadcasters (government and private) :

The good leverage that Somalia has is that 80% of the population has cell phones, has private FM radio services, and satellite TV services targeting the high-density settlements (cities and municipalities). Considering this broadcasting facility, the NCA needs to play a pivotal role in mandating cell phone/telecom operators, cable TV/satellite TV networks, online/offline news outlets to broadcast weather bulletins at regular intervals. Unfortunately, no MOUs & mandates for the national broadcasters, telecom operators, and news agencies to mandate daily weather forecasting and warning.

Recommendations: NCA immediately needs to sign and approve the MOU & mandates with National State control and private TV and Community Radio broadcasters, Telecom company  to  supplement forecast bulletin dissemination, SMS, IVR, Cell Broadcasting

• NCA needs to develop a Risk/Alert communication and dissemination system for urban dealers with cell phone, FM Radio, Internet, and Satellite TV access.

Organize a national hydrometeorological services technical working group to analyze forecasts, develop impact forecasts, and prepare CAP on sudden onset localized multi-hazard events that are highly likely to be impending, e.g., RDT identified heavy rainfall, tornadoes, nor’easters, etc. The CAP alerts must be on the spatial-temporal scale and be tracked and detected by the hybrid weather observation network. Local FM Radio, Satellite and cable TV, social network operators, and the local CPC/DMC committee need to issue CAP for their locality to minimize the L&Ds.

5.2 Developing a Common Alerting Protocol(CAP) :

Event Situation Updates to NMHEWC for next  action planning 

NMHS to constantly monitor, detect, and Issue CAP

• Impending hazardous weather
• Promote an End-to-end early warning system:
  • Mandating FV Radio, Satellite TV broadcasters to organize a Live show on multiple hazards for the collection of event situation :

Event situation can be collected for the crowd sources by conducting live broadcasts by the FM Radio, Satellite TV, to let the frontline stakeholders participate in the live show and receive updates about the onset hazard impacts and trails of L&Ds happening across the locality. The remote vulnerable and victim household/stakeholder can participate in the shows via cell phone calls and send the updates on event situations to the broadcast room, and then broadcasters can immediately update about ground level event situation updates to the interoperable NMHWEC (online database- Geoportal automated disaster alerts portal) and update the NCA and national broadcasters consortium for wider dissemination.  

5.3  Interoperable risk communication and feedback system with NMHEWS ( CREWS Initiative Support )

Figure 23: Live shows for capturing the ongoing event situation of the onset of disaster incidents on the ground( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

5.4  Develop and disseminate a common alerting protocol (CAP) on imminent hazards, weather  :

The development of the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is the tertiary step of an integrated forecasting and early warning system. Firstly, weather observation/detection, forecasting, and then CAP development based on the cascading impacts of multi-hazards down to the community and household level. The most decisive early action protocol, contingency mobilization, and forecast-based anticipatory action need to be developed based on the precision level of forecasting, cascading impacts of the impending and onset hazards on the elements on the ground.

NMHS needs to analyze numerical weather prediction (NWP), operational forecasts, develop impact forecasts, and prepare a spatiotemporal scale CAP on sudden onset localized multi-hazard events that are highly likely to be impending, e.g., RDT identified heavy rainfall, tornadoes, nor’easters, etc. The CAP alerts must be on a spatial-temporal scale and tracked and detected by the hybrid weather observation network (technology and human-driven). The NMHS and NWP team must issue CAP for broadcasting through Local FM Radio, Satellite and cable TV, social network operators, and the local CPC/DMC committee must issue CAP for their locality to minimize the L&Ds.

Figure 24: CAP Development Process( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

Figure 25: Event situation reporting( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

Tools: Mobile and landline telephones, Internet (e-mail, Google, Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, smartphone apps, sirens (in-building or outdoor), radio/television broadcast and, cable television, emergency radio, amateur radio, satellite direct broadcast, and digital signage networks (highway signs, billboards, automobile and rail traffic control).

5.5  Improving terrestrial Broadcasting

Figure 26 : Expansion of terrestrial broadcasts(AM Radio/TV) beyond the national boundary

NCA needs to undertake policy advocacy with the Ministry of Communication & Technology (MoCT) for resuming the AM Radio broadcasts( at the federal and state levels) , mandating cell phone companies to extend the cellular BTS ranges so that remote communities and fishermen can access terrestrial broadcasts. Terrestrial AM Radio and TV can play a significant role in keeping households and populations in dispersed and hard-to-reach areas household/population informed about multi-hazard risk, raising awareness, and providing timely access to weather bulletins, warnings, and alerts for minimizing loss of lives, L&Ds.

 5.6  Stakeholders’ responsibility metrics on Risk Communication and Event Updates

 5.7  NCA Mandates National Broadcasters, News Outlets for dissemination

NCA needs to play an important role in devising the forecast bulletin broadcasting; the following diagram shows the mechanism of an effective forecast dissemination system.

Figure 27: NCA led national communication framework ( proposed)( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

 5.8  UN Clusters data contribution for impact forecasting

Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) are defined as formal written guidelines or instructions for incident response. They generally have both operational and technical components and allow emergency response personnel to act in a coordinated manner across all disciplines in the event of an emergency.34 These detailed instructions or procedures promote a uniform and standardized response during emergency response operations. These SOPs should be aligned with the legislative and regulatory frameworks as well as with the specific policies and plans related to DRM.

 5.9  Installation of hybrid surface observation and organize a Live radio/TV show during Hazard spells are going

Mandate Crowdsource information coordination and information gathering during weather emergencies:  Developing crowdsource network ( WhatsApp, Telegram, Facebook,  Kobo-toolbox, survey monkey, GPS logger, GPS essential) connecting all vulnerable herders, community, stakeholders, enterprises, I-NGO projects, lead farmers, financing institutions, credit operators, insurance companies, etc., for collecting risk information, risk communication, event situation updates, etc.

• Tracking of every multi-hazard on the ground e.g. heavy rainfall,  strong winds, thunderstorm, dust storm, strong winds, heavy rainfall, etc caused of loss & damage .
• Conduct ground-level observations of any slow-medium onset hazards, such as heatwave, drought, etc.
• Activating hybrid observations for instantly tracking a flash drought, heatwave, hot spell, convective weather system /rapidly developing weather conditions ( area of extent) dust storms, etc.,  monitoring,
• Providing modular weather instruments e.g. thermometer, precipitation gauging, and hand-held anemometer to be given to every ger, volunteer.
• Setting up lighting detector and other AWS sensors  to high-value elements ( city /municipality)  
• Mandating crowdsourced volunteers to remain alerted to provide weather emergency information( to the network with geolocation)  in given cases of extreme weather events are likely to impend or just started. 
• Provide geolocation of livestock access to drinking water in harsh weather conditions

• Establish Constant communication and monitoring of the  herders/farmers/frontline community :
• Mandating cell phone companies for leveraging herders( volunteers) a  free internet hour in every day to herders/emergency volunteers, remotely located   MRCS, community volunteers, and another android phone for sending emergency data/information to IBF for updates.
• Mandate Herders/volunteers to provide quick updates of weather conditions to WhatsApp group: mandate herders for  Sending sample pictures of herd size and health conditions, forage conditions, camp side conditions ( vulnerable to hazards – avalanche/floods/flash floods/landslide/debris fall/mudslide  ?), landscape pictures of pastureland, the water access point for drinking water, etc.
• Organize group discussions with social network groups and ask herders for  Sending pictures of multi-hazards anytime they face an emergency shelter.

1. Conducting a live radio show for the vulnerable community during disaster onset
2. Coordinating with national AM radio or city/municipality-level AM radio broadcasts and organizing live radio talk shows to get situation and incident updates from remote communities. 
3. Support national radio team for preparing broadcast advisories for herders travelers, value chain operators, herders, farmers, etc.

• Liaising with INGO/UN Agency, supported  event situation updates
• INGO/UN Agency  humanitarian network, sector network to feed event situation to  MHEWS running  CAP.
• Anchoring IGNO/UN Agency led emergency preparedness and response with IBF
• Green /Dry Pasture alert
• Forage  crop failure ( due to drought ) & shortage alert

[1] MOBILE M ONEY E COSYSTEM IN S OMALIA SUMMARY, Altai Consulting for the World Bank, June 2017

6.0 Pillar 4 : Improving Preparedness and Response Capabilities

6.1 The central objectives for improving Preparedness and response capabilities

• Improving multi-hazard informed disaster risk management (DRM) system at a local level
• Capacity building of DRM and DRR actors, risk-informed, forecast-based anticipatory action planning, and implementation
• Mechanizing and devising anticipatory actions  based on spatiotemporal scale and precision level, early warning & alerts
• Improving  local level coordination mechanism of the Disaster Civil Protection Committee /Disaster Management Committee (DMC) emergency preparedness and lifesaving humanitarian response actions plans with ICT tools( Apps ) driven and interactive
• Implement ICT tools-driven interoperable NMHEWS online platform to ensure evidence-based actions and hold every stakeholder accountable under pillar 4, accountable for Preparedness and response actions
• Deployment of ICT tools-driven interoperable NMHEWS online platform to ensure all stakeholders, state( Government entities) , non-state ( UN, INGOs, CSOs, Academia), in collective accountability to the affected population (AAP) for avoiding duplicity and overarching actions.
• Improving stakeholders’ capacity in assessment of post-disaster impacts, climate change impacts, L&Ds data collection, conducting PDNA, RPDNA at the local level
• Improving informed disaster risk financing framework and forecast-based financing mechanism

6.2 Recommendations on a coherent sector-level actionable policy framework:

• Improving  Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Action Planning  : There are silo approach of DRM planning ( preparedness, contingency, response, recovery) planning and interventions at federal level, member state level, District level and largely being undertaken by the CSOs, UN Agency and government level. Therefore, some degree of overarching intervention process and some hard-to-reach areas remain unattended. To overcome the silo approach of  DRM planning and interventions interoperable NMHEWC need to deploy the online database connected with apps for tracking interventions, identify the people in need (PiN).
• Organizing District ( City, Municipality) and community-level Civil Protection Committees (CPC ) /Disaster Management Committees (DMC) and improving ICT tools based on the task management system. A structured CPC needs support from the District administration, City and municipality local government, local INGOs implementing partners, local NGOs, sector extension department, charity, Mosque Imam-led committee, community volunteers, youth clubs, etc. SoDMA-led NMHEWC needs to develop an online database and apps for governing each committee and performing all standing orders during disaster emergencies.
• Facilitate the Somalia Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF) action plans: Through the interoperable NMHEWS and partnering with all the stakeholders to support them in developing hazard-informed planning tools to facilitate the collective efforts to support RRF actions.  Coordinating the local NGOs/CSOs, Local development committees, Local Community, sector extensions department, local stakeholders, entrepreneurs, promoter to be part  DRM and DRR  process. Developing hazard risk-informed planning tools to support each city, municipality, and district level government in developing DRM/DRR Planning. Supporting the local market value chain for their value chain level DRM/DRR planning
• Supporting (climate vulnerable sector, e.g., crop agriculture, livestock, WASH, health, and fisheries )level stakeholders for local level hazard information scheme planning.

6.3 Improving Forecast-based Anticipatory Action Planning Capacity:

One of the key activities of Interoperability NMHEWS and Systemic structure function is to coordinate federal and state actors in forecast-based anticipatory action planning over an online platform.

Hazardous weather conditions

Figure 28 : Forecast-based Anticipatory Action Planning framework ( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)  

6.4  Implementation  functional Civil Protection  Committee(CPC)/Disaster management Committee(DMC) :

Somalia needs a Civil Protection Committee (CPC) ( Annexure 1) for supporting the risk assessment, enhancing community risk knowledge and risk perception, supporting end-to-end and community-based early warning systems. The CPC/DMC needs to be the key informant, and the committee needs to be connected with ICT tools/mobile apps for sending community-level L&Ds information, event situations of multi-hazards turning into disaster events, community humanitarian needs and priorities, etc.

Currently, SoDMA and other sector department conducts post disaster L&Ds assessment with support from Mosque Imam during Friday prayers.  For enhancing multi-hazard risk knowledge. Every CPC stakeholders can plan significant role  in local level disaster risk management .

1. Send event situation update
2. Send local L&Ds updates
3. Local Disaster preparedness, response, and recovery  plan

6.5  Hazard risk-informed Humanitarian actions 

Humanitarian actors need time-critical impact forecasts for planning forecast-based immediate anticipatory action, considering the scale, intensity, and scalability of impending multi-hazards that are likely to cause L&Ds on the ground. ICT-based tools can play a vital role in improving risk information management for facilitating humanitarian action.   ICT-based georeferenced  emergency management is required for conducting emergency preparedness and responses. IT apps based on 5W ( Who, will be doing what, where, when, and how ) for intervention planning for avoiding overarching planning,  duplicity of actions,  governing hard-to-reach areas, and uniformly mobilizing humanitarian assistance at the last-mile.

6.6    Improving the community-level volunteering network for emergency preparedness and Response mechanism

Recommendations :

• Coordination structure of SoDMA, Somalian Red Cross Society (SRCS), and INGOs to establish a local community-level volunteering network for emergency preparedness and response mechanism.
• Capacity building for improving volunteering service delivery.
• Mandate CSOs to work with the 5W matrix for effective disaster preparedness and response service deliveries, develop DRM strategies, and link NS response operations with recovery and community resilience work
• Establish a local community-level volunteering network for emergency preparedness and response mechanisms.
• Capacity building for improving volunteering service delivery.
• Improve community capacity to DRR ,CCA, NbS, NbA, LLA
• Develop a stakeholder coordination strategy to avoid overlapping local-level DRR,CCA, NbS, and climate resilience-building initiatives.
• Develop DRR,CCA, NbS coordination structure for local level( District, Village, Community)  coordination in interventions
• Enhance stakeholder capacity in risk-informed and evidence-based DRR, CCA, and NbS interventions at the community level.
• Enhance local-level humanitarian and DRR interventions by INGO, NGOs, CSO, and local government.
• Enhance community capacity in DRR, CCA, and NbS
• Enhance local government /SoDMA engagement in Humanitarian Response Planning and intervention process.

Hazardous weather forecast bulletin

• Civil Protection Committee at the local level
• Civil Protection Committee  action for the local level preparedness  

6.7   Improving Last-Mile Disaster Preparedness Capacity

The last-mile preparedness depends on the precision level forecast being disseminated through real-time channels ( Radio/TV) , the requirements of forecast-based localized anticipatory action planning, mobilization of CPC teams, household-level evacuations to safe ground/shelter. 

Figure 29 : Last-Mile Disaster Preparedness process (proposed)( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

The following are the simple steps forward in the Somalian context to enhance local level preparedness in the event of  rapid & sudden onset of hazardous weather conditions that are impending  

Recommendations :

• A joint capacity-building programn needs to be conducted by the CSO consortium, UN Clusters, HCT actors, UN Agency, INGO-led implementing partners (IP), and SoDMA for the participants of  CPC/DMC of City, Municipality, urban center, Town, Village, and community-level committees on topics such as evacuation drills, first aid, etc. 
• Develop CPC/DMC level Preparedness Plan (with 5 W responsibilities, who will do what, where, when, and how)
• Establish an emergency shelter group/committee.
• Capacity development of CPC/DMC in forecast-based emergency preparedness and response, and conducting multi-stakeholder-led humanitarian action at the community and household level,  improving Institutional Capacity in Developing Forecast-based Early Action Protocol (EAP) Development.
• Mandating local broadcasters and news outlets to enhance community risk knowledge on Flash drought, hydrological, meteorological, Fluvial flood, flash flood, transboundary catchment overflow flooding, landslide, cyclone, convective heavy rainfall, tornadoes, thunderstorm, diseases/outbreaks, Earthquake-induced coastal Tsunami, etc.)

6.8    Improving Community-based Early Warning Capacity  

The community-based Early Warning is an end-to-end early warning system facilitated by the locally mechanized EWS system. It involves local broadcasters, CPC/DMC, local government administration/sector departments, local CSOs, local humanitarian actions group, Somalia Red Cross Society, etc. The process starts while precision-level hazardous weather is detected and forecasted at a precision level with a spatiotemporal scale, identifying the high-impact areas. Instantly, the local broadcasters, CPC, continue to broadcast special weather bulletins based on any changing conditions, and severe weather warnings/alerts are being circulated from the NMHEWC.   While hazards have already interacted with the ground, the broadcasters need to organize live shows/live broadcasts and interactive discussions with CPC/DRMC and community/households with event situation updates, assessments of primary L&D, humanitarian needs and priorities, etc., and report back to NMHEWC.

The figure below shows the structure & process.

Figure 30 : Structure & process for improving  Community-based Early Warning Capacity  ( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

Recommendations :

• Capacity-building programn needs to be conducted by the CSO consortium, UN Clusters, HCT actors, UN Agency, INGO-led implementing partners (IP), and SoDMA for the participants of National and Local Broadcasters, News agency, CPC/DMC of City, Municipality, urban center, Town, Village, and community-level committees on topics such as evacuation drills, first aid, etc. 
• Mandating local broadcasters and news outlets to enhance community risk knowledge on Flash drought, hydrological, meteorological, Fluvial flood, flash flood, transboundary catchment overflow flooding, landslide, cyclone, convective heavy rainfall, tornadoes, thunderstorm, diseases/outbreaks, Earthquake-induced coastal Tsunami, etc.).

6.9   How to develop  Anticipatory Action (AA) Framework   

Step 1:  Complete risk Baseline risk and vulnerability analysis.

• Develop a detailed repository of elements, sectors, livelihoods, livestock herding area-wise risk, vulnerability, exposure, and sensitivity risk ranking.  
• Identify the major hazards with ranking in terms of L & D, tolls, frequency, intensity, and magnitude.  
• Detailed atlas ( State, Region, District) with indicators and Selection of recurrent hazards (Flash flood, drought, sand-dust storm, cyclone, heatwave etc.). Risk, vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity Analysis of the priority sectors ( livestock and crop agriculture, water, land & soil ). Detailed atlas preparation( Physical, geographical, socioeconomic, and, copping capacity) :
• Develop Standard Operating Procedures (Sop) for local governments regarding humanitarian and climate risk management.
• Develop Standing orders on disaster (SoD), actors/stakeholders for managing disaster emergencies at the local level.
• Review Risk-informed LDP & budgeting of local governments, ongoing interventions
• Review the Value chain operations of the service sectors

Step 2: Review impact forecasts / different-term operational Forecasts (IBF) 

Review the IBF and analyze the risk of impending hazards, where it will be likely, and how many elements are likely to impact with a lead time of 12 or 24 hours. Estimate impacts over the elements falling under the severity of thresholds, calculate risk with impending nature, and persistent risk and vulnerabilities.

Step 3: Define impact level by the impending extreme weather events induced hazard(s)

• From the above menu summarize the Risk ranking of the elements  and define the intervention type
• Duration of support required.

Step 3 : Analyze the IBF anticipatory advisory on loss and damage.

This is the teamwork of IBF sector represented technical working group(TWG)accessing the MHEWS over the geospatial platform and analysis of forecast impacts. However, this is the primary input for the EAP to have a precision level IBF and an anticipatory L & D scenario.

The hypothesis of impact estimation;

Impact estimation = Overlay  Impact forecast color-coded threshold of impending extreme weather events  over the geographical areas + calculate  Baseline physical elements (CRVA elements ) and their  Risk & Vulnerability Ranks + Calculate socioeconomic  Risk & Vulnerability and Ranks – coping capacity = estimated risk and vulnerability elements, geographical areas, and severity

Step 4: Develop an anticipatory L & D scenario :

1. Based on the hypotheses, calculate a checklist of impacts level, and severity index for the elements likely to be impacted, and damaged. A detailed checklist of how many elements is at very high, high, moderate & low risks, vulnerable, exposed, sensitive to hazards, etc.
2. Based on the software, an Excel sheet calculate the detailed L & D scenarios
3. Calculating financial, and physical loss & Damage and the size of investment is required for preparedness and withstanding capacity, reducing risk, vulnerability, exposure, and sensitivity.

Table :  elements impact analysis. 

Step 5: Develop a Contingency  Plan

• Formulation of SOP with 5W activities 
• Required resources for saving lives and properties.
• Detailing people in need (PIN) and priorities intervention for the high-risk ranking elements
• Rapid Funding mechanisms and probable sources to meet ,e.g., internal ( local governments, central government ) and external.
• Risk-based intervention allocation etc.

Step 6: Select early actions

Based on the category, type, impeding nature( Raid onset, medium onset, slow onset), intensity, magnitude, scalability, and duration to dissipate, the EAP team needs to develop early action plans for the whole cycle of risk management. Prepare risk category-wise investment menu, types of intervention ( cash, in-kind, logistic, relief, etc) to be required for, executing group/stakeholders/partners of 5W action plan modality, etc.

Step 7: Define the intervention  process

• Define intervention based on the threshold and impact intensity of the impending extreme weather events. Following  the 5W process for involving the actors. 
• Define activities, budgets, and probable  funding sources.
• Develop M&E plan while intervention is triggered to capture the progress to date.

Step 8:  Event situation reporting.

Defining event situation reporting process, and guidelines of utilizing IBF crowdsource networking and risk communication tools for updating situations with pictures, videos textual reporting, etc. so that IBF and forecast-based anticipatory action (AA)   partners can get the updates through online integrated IBF and forecast-based anticipatory action (AA)  platform. 

Step 9: EAP approval  and designation for risk  finances

The whole IBF and FBF process is intended to implement over the online integrated web portals & geospatial platforms for functioning the automated process. The forecast-based anticipatory action (AA)  process leaders, co-leaders, key stakeholders, and local governments to jointly organize a consultation process online for reviewing, commenting, and finalization of the EAP and inclusive risk finance readily available to mobilize and additional finances required to implement to emergency humanitarian program for getting font-line better prepared for the impending hazards.

Step 10: Define activities  on how to conduct constant Monitoring  forecasts and conduct humanitarian   actions accordingly

The functional humanitarian focal agencies (INGOs, UN Clusters, SRCS, HCT, CSOs ) are to be guided by the EAP and conduct humanitarian action accordingly.  After EAP is approved and all the agreements are in place, ensure that the relevant stakeholders are ready to activate, preposition the relief /items for distribution, carry out necessary training, and ensure financial and logistical arrangements are in place and roles and responsibilities are well understood by the actors engaged.

Define the monitoring & evaluation process of the forecast updates (IBF and operational IBF, warning, watch, alerts ), which would be functioned by the IBF and forecast-based anticipatory action (AA)  platform.

6.10    Improve  disaster risk financing system:

Building consensus among the federal government, member state government sector ministries for reforming the national annual fiscal budgetary allocation mechanism for funding disaster risk management actions at the local level. Federal government regional member states’ deed to increase local revenue mobilization and increase budgetary allocation to implement disaster risk management activities. The government agencies at the national and state levels have inadequate technical capacity due to poor local risk governance mechanisms in place. 

Figure  31: Disaster Risk Financing Framework ( proposed) ( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

6.11    Supporting the implementation of risk-informed DRM and DRR

• Capacity building for improving SoDMA and Local government-led DRM, DRR, and CCA coordination system.
• Develop a Forecast-based Risk Financing framework (Forecast-based anticipatory action)  for supporting Forecast-based parametric risk insurance facility, early contingency preparations for the humanitarian action.

• Risk Informed Intervention: Somalia has a national disaster risk management policy (2020) and a Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF), but still does not have a stakeholders’ mandate actionable plan to translate policy into actions for effective DRM at the local level. Lack of standard operating procedures (SoP) , Lack of national budget allocated for funding disaster risk management actions, Inadequate hazard risk-informed DRM plans,  Inadequate integration and coordination, the  Local community empowerment is limited and Lack of clear roles and responsibilities of state actors and SoDMA as well.

• Develop  Risk Transfer mechanism and forecast-based anticipatory action (AA)  framework and action plan, and supporting risk-informed tools for harmonizing the following fund-based interventions of  Adaptation Fund, African Development Bank, EU Fund, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Global Environment Facility(GEF), Green Climate Fund (GCF), INGOs led development interventions

6.12    Improve DRM Planning at local level :

• Develop  Cyclone Preparedness Plan (CPP) to raise awareness at every coastal district and community level about the impending cyclones and storms that are being forecasted.
• Develop Flood/flash flood/landslide/heavy rainfall Preparedness Plan to raise awareness among vulnerable communities about impeding floods, heavy rainfall, and flash floods that are forecasted.

Recommendations:

Improving Multi-hazard/Disaster Crisis response capacity – undertake capacity building  in Disaster emergency preparedness, response, and recovery planning. Initiate Institutional and stakeholder capacity buding progarmme in  Improving Institutional Capacity in Developing Forecast-based Early Action Protocol (EAP) Development, Improving stakeholder capacity in undertaking forecast-based anticipatory action (AA) planning and implementation capacity (Flash drought, hydrological, meteorological, Fluvial flood, flash flood, transboundary catchment overflow flooding, landslide, cyclone, convective heavy rainfall, tornadoes, thunderstorm, diseases/outbreaks, Earthquake-induced coastal Tsunami, etc.)

6.13   Gender responsive DRR framework :

1. Deploy gender supportive CAP/weather warning for  undertaking Gender in Humanitarian Action  (GiHA)

• Village-level head-women (proposed), women members of the CPC, and other social council women members to report to the District CPC about the needs and priorities of women-headed households
• The Gender in Humanitarian Action (GiHA) : Development of forecast-based GiHA protocol for women/single mother and girls-headed households

• Gender action plan in every sector department/cluster (government sector department, every sphere of local government
• Develop national risk financing framework  ( gender-focused) : The Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs needs to develop a National risk financing framework and DRR budgetary allocation in every fiscal year’s budget ( with gender-based allocations
• Mandating Local authorities’ planning and budgets:  Local authorities’ budgets are separate from the central Government budget; these are composed of local revenue
• Develop a forecast-based early action protocol, anticipatory loss and damage (L&D), and impacts level, and instantly broadcasts the messages so that every women-headed household is adequately warned /alerted. National media outlets need to play a pivotal role ( in the local language) by broadcasting distance learning education progamme  ( radio/TV) for awareness
• Develop early warning-based anticipatory early actions advisories/bulletins for the women-headed households about what they need to do in the given early warnings and impending hazard conditions so that they get well alerted and well prepared .
• Develop national risk financing framework  ( gender-focused) : The Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs needs to develop a National risk financing framework and DRR budgetary allocation in every fiscal year’s budget ( with gender-based allocations)

Figure 32: Gender responsive DRR framework( Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam)

• Inadequate city and municipality-level planning and budget allocations for implementing community-level DRM/DRR  schemes. Urban councils do not have a budget for financing  DRM/DRR schemes for poor households 

• Strengthen National DRM Framework
• Institutional Strengthening and Capacity Development
• Improving Cyclone and Flood Forecasting and Early Warning:
• Improved Methodology, ICT tools and stakeholder coordination for Development SADD :
• Improving UN, Government, and multi-stakeholder  coordination mechanisms in DRM and DRR Functionaries
• Community-level risk-informed gender development approach
• SGBV tracking network and dissemination system (Proposed)
• Improving stakeholders’ capacity on post-disaster damage, loss, and needs assessment (PDNA), Joint needs assessment (JNA), Rapid Needs Assessments (RNA), etc., so that gendered impacts are being clearly screened and assessed
• Developing  Gender in Humanitarian Action  (GiHA) Roadmap and Planning
• Development of multi-stakeholder/agency-coordinated Gender in Humanitarian Action(GiHA)  process
• Systematically maintain /update Disaster Risk Management Information System (DRMIS) at the country’s central provincial, district, and TA/Administrative Post, Village level