Multi-hazard risk of KSA: Sea level rise, coastal erosion, and altered storm patterns could expose 210,000 Saudis to devastating floods by 2050 in a high emissions scenario. Precipitation variability is predicted to fluctuate as much as 60 percent from one year to the next, increasing exposure to droughts and floods alike. The science shows that Saudi Arabia will experience devastating climate impacts if it follows a high-emissions pathway. Without urgent action, Saudi Arabia will see an 88% increase in the frequency of agricultural drought by 2050.

Climate change is already having devastating effects in Saudi Arabia. This report collates scientific projections of how climate impacts will play out up to 2050 and 2100, on low, medium and high emissions pathways. 

The science shows that Saudi Arabia will experience devastating climate impacts if it follows a high-emissions pathway. Without urgent action, Saudi Arabia will see an 88% increase in the frequency of agricultural drought by 2050. Heatwaves will last more than 4,242% longer and the combination of sea level rise, coastal erosion and fiercer weather will cause chaos for Saudi Arabia’s economy, which stands to lose around 12.2% of GDP by 2050. 

The faster Saudi Arabia adopts low-carbon policies, the less the climate impacts cascade and the more manageable they become. Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will see the cost of climate impacts in Saudi Arabia drop to just 4.8% of its GDP by 2050 and 0.78% by 2100.

Impacts on the natural environment

Temperature and weather changes

From 1979 to 2019, Saudi Arabia has seen its mean temperature increase by 2.1°C which is nearly three times more than the world average. The increase has been even more dramatic in the summer months as the mean temperature has increased by 2.5 °C.^[10] Because of climate change, there has been a global rise in extreme weather events such as the record heatwaves in the summer of 2010. During this period, the Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah saw temperatures reach 52 °C, causing eight of the nation’s power stations to shutdown with multiple cities suffering from blackouts.^[11] The overall increase in temperature disproportionately affects the country and is dependent on seasons. For instance, the nation’s capital, Riyadh saw increases in its average summer temperature increase by 0.067 °C per year between 2009 and 2013 while its winter averages increased by 0.056 °C per year. On the other hand, Tabuk in the north-west saw slightly more gradual increases during the same period with its summer average increasing by 0.058 °C per year and its winter temperatures increasing by 0.042 °C per year.^[12] This reflects the overall regional trends in Saudi Arabia of lower temperatures in the north and higher temperatures in the coastal and central parts of the country.^[11]

Sea level rise

Climate change and the rising temperatures that accompany it lead to the melting of ice and expansion of ocean water. The combination of these processes manifests in the form of rising sea levels, threatening coastal and island nations throughout the world.^[13] Saudi Arabia’s coastal regions are densely populated and these regions are also important for the economy. Along the country’s Red Sea coast are the four major cities of Tabuk, Al Madinah, Jeddah and Jizan. These areas are home to a number of religious and historical sites that are important tourist attractions and they also host agricultural land and oil and natural gas deposits.^[14] Sea level rise anywhere can be accompanied by a range of negative environmental consequences. These include flooding in coastal areas, erosion of beaches, contamination of freshwater sources, salinization of soils, and loss of habitats along coasts.^[13] Areas to the north and south of Dammam are at the highest risk of inundation in the country and, therefore, are threatened by the accompanying environmental impacts.^[15]

Water resources

Saudi Arabia is a semi-arid nation with limited groundwater resources and no natural rivers or lakes. High temperatures and low rainfall of less than 100mm per year cause the few surface water resources that exist to be unable to meet the nation’s needs due to the rate of evaporation being higher than the rate of precipitation.^[16][17] Aridity has only been further driven by the fact that the thermostatic effect from the oceans has shifted the thermal equator.^[17] Groundwater, makes up between 80 and 90 percent of water use in Saudi Arabia and comes from both nonrenewable fossil reservoirs and renewable shallow terrestrial aquifers.^[16] There are eight aquifers that account for approximately 86% of the non-renewable water while the other 14% is contained within the rest of the secondary aquifers. These aquifers are mostly in the northern and central parts of the country.^[17] Because fossil water is non-renewable and the renewable shallow aquifers are being extracted from faster than they can recharge, it is estimated that the reserves of groundwater will runout in under 50 years should the current rates of extraction continue.^[16]

Ecosystems

Within Saudi Arabia exist some of the most species rich and productive marine habitats in the world in the form of its coastal wetlands. These ecosystems bolster the regional fisheries and house breeding bird populations.^[18] Two of the ways in which climate change impacts the wetlands is through the rising temperatures and falling quantities of precipitation which alter wetland hydrology and ecological community compositions. An additional threat imposed by climate change is sea level rise which, when combined with anthropomorphic activities like land development and pollution, make wetlands like mangroves and mudflats the most threatened ecosystems within the country.^[18] In the Khulais region, located within the Arabian Shield along the western side of the country, it has been found that the abundance of many of the native species has been declining while presence of invasive species has been on the rise. This is likely a direct result of the increasing temperatures and the reduced levels of precipitation that lower the availability of water in the nation. So, not only is climate change negatively impacting Saudi Arabian ecosystems with its reduction of water resources but also with its facilitation of the growth of harmful invasive species.^[19]

Impacts on people

The effects of climate change present a host of challenges for public health. The increases in the prevalence of heat stroke and heat-related illnesses in the region are attributable to rising temperatures associated with climate change.^[20] The combined threats of deteriorating air quality, desertification, and diminishing water resources are of immediate concern to both human health and livelihoods. Farmers predict a significant decrease in their annual yield, which is dependent on increasingly strained irrigation systems, a consequence that simultaneously reinforces the country’s dependence on food imports and endangers the well-being of vulnerable populations in terms of both food security and economic stability.^[21] Due to the prevalence of insect and pest infestation alone, agriculture in Saudi Arabia faces 12.6-20% yield loss annually. These challenges worsen food insecurity, an increasingly pressing issue due to the country’s rapid population growth.^[22]

Saudi Arabia’s air quality ranks among the most polluted in the world and is found to lower the population’s average lifespan.^[23] Additionally, the change in temperature, humidity, and precipitation create an environment more conducive to mosquitoes and the spread of mosquito-borne illnesses.^[20] Compared to other nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council, Saudi Arabia is the only country with recorded increases in the mortality rate attributable to the air’s concentration of particulate matter. ^[23] Air pollutants in the region contribute to the increased risk and prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and ischemic heart diseases in Saudi Arabia.^[24]

Mitigation

One of the critical issues in the Updated Nationally Determined Contributions of Saudi Arabia is economic diversification. ^[25] Economic diversification involves broadening the country’s main sources of income, which is heavily emphasized for oil-exporting nations that will be subject to the detriments of the volatile oil market. The fluctuation of crude oil prices exacerbates Saudi Arabia’s vulnerability to inflationary pressures and facilitates economic instability.^[26]

When it held the G20 presidency, Saudi Arabia introduced the circular carbon economy (CCE) as a strategy to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. The model of CCE relies on the principles of reduce, reuse, recycle – accomplishing a decrease in carbon emissions through the management of carbon as a product input or through carbon capture.^[27] Further, Saudi Arabia began reform of energy pricing to reduce subsidies that promote excess energy consumption and disincentivize more sustainable energy sources. To shield lower income households from the detriments of price increases, Saudi Arabia implemented a form of government assistance known as the Citizens’ Account.^[28] Moreover, the Saudi government introduced Vision 2030 in 2016, and set several sustainability goals to be achieved by 2030. This project continued with the introduction of the Saudi Green Initiative in 2021. Current initiatives focus on afforestation, conservation, and the implementation of sustainable practices in the private and public sectors.^[29]

Adaptation

The projected growth in population and the nation’s economy necessitate adaptation in sectors such as transportation, electricity, and agriculture. Rising temperatures exacerbate concerns surrounding energy waste, primarily as the region’s cooling needs continue to rise. Saudi Arabia faces the task of adaption as the introduction of CCE and energy price reforms place stress on the industrial sector and create a need for carbon-neutral alternatives.^[20] The country is investing in solar and wind energy projects intending to generate half of its energy from renewables by 2030 to reduce its reliance on oil. Saudi Arabia seeks to address growing concerns through a reimagined urban planning that allocates for more efficient transportation and the creation of green spaces.^[20][29]

Society and culture

The impacts of climate change have shifted the livelihoods of those in Saudi Arabia. Farmers are increasingly worried about the viability of their crops, which led to shifts to more sustainable crops and altered irrigation methods in response to water shortages.^[21] Alongside the endangerment of traditional livelihoods, climate change impacts the preservation and accessibility of important cultural heritage sites.^[30] The culmination of climate change impacts has taken a toll on the country’s rates of mental illness, with depression and anxiety rising to the leading causes of disability.^[20] Water pollution onset by unsustainable practices, along with salinity and acidity changes, has impacted the livelihoods of fishermen and the operation of fisheries. The disruptions to this industry pose a threat to the culture of fish consumption in Saudi Arabia and present the potential for job loss in traditional lines of work.^[31] The tangible effects of climate change in the region have become a problem for the country’s tourism industry, as the increase in temperature poses health risks to tourists. In Saudi Arabia, much of the concern surrounds the barriers to religious tourism to Mecca and Medina, which are culturally and spiritually salient.^[32]

International cooperation

Cooperation between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Nations through the United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 2022-2026 (UNSDCF) allows the country to abide by the UN’s 2030 Agenda. The framework focuses on policy advising and supporting efforts toward poverty alleviation, economic growth, and sustainable resource consumption.^[33] Saudi Arabia is a contributor to the development of Nigeria’s carbon market, facilitating bilateral relations in oil, agriculture, and infrastructure.^[34]

Regionally, Saudi Arabia led the establishment of the Saudi and Middle East Green Initiatives to address climate change.^[35] The Middle East Green Initiative, launched by the Crown Prince, aims to reduce global carbon emissions by 10% through ambitious goals such as planting 50 billion trees, restoration of 200 million hectares of land, and achieving 50% renewable energy in electricity generation by 2030, all while fostering innovation and international collaboration to combat climate change.^[35][36]

Climate projections

By the middle of the century, the average temperature in Saudi Arabia will have risen by an average of 2°C, with some areas experiencing increases in excess of 2.4°C.

By the 2050s, Saudi Arabia will experience nearly 20 heat waves annually (including during winter), each lasting about 10 days.

After 2030, the annual evaporation rate in KSA will be 40 percent higher than the precipitation rate, contributing to groundwater losses and increased salinity.

Sea level rise, coastal erosion, and altered storm patterns could expose 210,000 Saudis to devastating floods by 2050 in a high emissions scenario.

Precipitation variability is predicted to fluctuate as much as 60 percent from one year to the next, increasing exposure to droughts and floods alike.

In a high emissions scenario, the Saudi GDP is projected to shrink by more than 12% by 2050.

Related resources

About the Ministry

Disaster Response Plans for Municipalities

History of the Ministry of Municipalities and Housing

The Ministry of Municipal and Rural Affairs was established in 1395 AH / 1975 AD by Royal Decree No. (A/266) dated 8/10/1395 AH and was entrusted with the responsibility of urban planning for the cities of the Kingdom, and what this entails in providing roads and basic equipment, improving and beautifying cities and developing municipal and rural areas in addition to To the management of the services necessary to maintain the cleanliness and health of the environment in the Kingdom.

Vision

Improving the standard of living and citizen satisfaction by providing services and infrastructure with the best specifications and ensuring residential communities with integrated services and facilities. .

الرسالة

Improving the quality of life and prosperity in Saudi cities to respond to the aspirations and needs of current and future generations and achieve the happiness of the residents.

Civil Protection

Introduction

Mankind has suffered for many years from natural disasters that devastated property and population. It was difficult for countries to confront such disasters because they were incapable.

Before the First World War, there were no industrial disasters; the development occurred when countries started manufacturing weapons of mass destruction. Countries then developed such weapons to become a multi-species (nuclear – biological – chemical); then there has been an evolution in facing resultant disasters. Saudi Arabia adopted new methods to fight such disasters and to protect life and property. It established the General Directorate of Civil Protection (GDCP) as a civil defense department for this purpose, (refer to the definition of civil protection).

From this standpoint, the General Directorate of Civil Protection endeavors, under guidance and directives of Saudi Arabia’s leadership, to curb potential disasters and minimize the effects in co-operation with other bodies through risk analysis, study and possibilities of occurrence; preparation of plans to control disasters; and readiness by making available all human and technical materials. The directorate performs evacuation and rehabilitation works as well.

Definition:

In the majority of states adopting same definition, legislations define civil protection as (The protection and rescue of mankind and his properties in all circumstances, during wars, upheavals and disasters).

In Saudi Arabia, according to the functions and objectives, Civil Protection is defined as (The deterrence of natural, industrial and military hazards; and mitigation of their consequences; to unify efforts to confront threats, to keep-going-on work of important facilities, to apply appropriate measures and actions to protect lives, public and private property under all circumstances).

History:

The idea of deterrence from hazards like earthquakes, volcanoes, winds, hurricanes etc.; and the dangers of wars are as old as man himself is. By elapse of time, evolution of human societies and prosperity of industries, urbanization, consequent risks of modern technology along with various disasters and calamities occurring at times, human thinking has changed to preserve the human race and economics, particularly because the modern social organization system threatens at all times of disasters, especially in large cities, where there are hundreds of thousands of population, large industrial vehicles and accumulation of lethal materials which make cities pools of risks and calamities besides the changes in some States at times like armed conflicts or wars. Thus, a majority of world’s nations reconsider the establishment of a protection department to save man and property against hazards.

Britain was the first country in the world to organize civil protection in 1935; it has developed precautionary measures against air raids that urged the Defense Council to accredit the civil service in peacetime in 1940. The other countries participating in the Second World War were not equipped to cope with disasters then, because the civil protection department was not at their hierarchies. Government authorities before World War II did not develop a general comprehensive national system to be applied at peacetime, leaving the natural disasters confrontation to local authorities like municipalities and villages. When a disaster occurs, only citizens and volunteers intervene heterogeneously.

The need to seriously structure and regulate a civil protection body emerged worldwide in 1960. In Saudi Arabia, the Civil Protection Department, Directorate General of Civil Defense applies many tasks entrusted to them.

The Civil Protection Department has undergone many phases since establishment:

1- The Department was created in 1402H under the name “Relief and Disaster prevention Administration” that included the following sections:

• Civil Defense Council.
• Evacuation and Shelter.
• Hiding.
• Relief.
• Warning and Blackouts.
• Co-ordination and Follow-up.

2- The Department was restructured in 1406H and was renamed “Assistant to director General of Civil Protection” with following sections:

• Local Committees Administration.
• Evacuation and Shelter.
• Hiding.
• Relief.
• Warning and Blackouts.
• Co-ordination and Follow-up.
• Volunteers’ Affairs.

3- The Department was restructured in 1408H and was renamed “Civil Protection Affairs” with the following administrations:

• Technical Prevention.
• Volunteers.
• Warning Systems and Communication.
• Operations Planning and Co-ordination.
• Relief and Emergencies.
• Risk Analysis.

4- The Department was restructured in 1409H and was renamed “The General Directorate of Civil Protection Affairs” with the following administrations:

• Contingency Planning .
• Warning Systems and Communication.
• Technical prevention.
• Volunteers Affairs.
• Risk Analysis.
• Relief and Emergencies.

5- The Department was restructured in 1416H and was renamed “The General Directorate of Civil Protection” with following the administrations:

• Risk Analysis.
• Warning Systems and Guidance.
• Programs and Authentication.
• Contingency Planning 
• Readiness and Confrontation.

Tasks and functions of Civil Protection:

In some countries, civil protection carries out all civil defense tasks; and in some countries, some special tasks may be assigned at emergencies as follows:

1. Classify risks to develop appropriate methods of confrontation.
2. Deter natural, industrial and military hazards; and mitigate their consequences; unify efforts to confront threats, help continuation of work in important facilities and apply appropriate measures and actions to protect lives, public and private property.
3. Plan how to confront emergencies to mitigate the effects of accidents of industry, nature and war.
4. Set emergencies’ general plans and the basis for detailed plans and follow-up the key committees at regions.
5. Prepare scientific studies and field analysis to identify potential risks; and coordinate with all sectors and government institutions to develop general plans for intervention in cases of disasters.
6. Arrange rapid intervention systems in emergencies.
7. Prepare plans for volunteers.
8. Prepare evacuation plans and accommodation in cases of wars and emergencies.
9. Arrange and implement plans, policies and programs to apply the civil defense’s rules and regulations relating to civil protection.
10. Apply volunteers’ rules and regulating articles; and plan to take advantage of them.
11. Coordinate with the competent authorities to prepare warning-against-dangers plans.
12. Work in co-ordination with ministries and government agencies responsible for implementation of Civil Defense activities.
13. Train and prepare Civil Protection staff to confront potential risks.
14. Protect against dangers of chemical, biological and nuclear wars.
15. Erect temporary shelter camps to accommodate the victims and displaced.

Civil Protection Sections:

First – Risk Analysis

This section identifies current or anticipated hazards, to develop procedures and requirements to confront them.

Second – Contingency Planning:

This section sets emergencies’ general plans and the basis for detailed plans and follow-up the key committees at regions, and it supervises the enacting of the DGCD’s code and regulations in co-ordination with the Secretariat of the Council of Civil Defence.

Third – Readiness and Confrontation:

It Plans how to confront emergencies to mitigate the effects of accidents of industry, nature and war. It as well, plans emergency evacuation, sheltering, rehabilitating; and provides food and clothing to help victims return as quickly as possible to normal life.

Fourth – Warning Systems and Guidance:

It plans a warning network for dissemination, and sets general standards and measures for hidings and follow-up them; it educates community on civil protection activities, operational procedures and organization of work and it arranges operations rooms and centers to manage emergency confrontation.

Fifth – Programs and Documentation:

This section sets training plans and programs for CP staff, follows-up dealings with advisers and documents CP works in computer.