Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Myanmar

Myanmar is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its exposure to cyclones, storm surges, floods, landslides, droughts, extreme heat, earthquakes, tsunamis, coastal erosion, salinity intrusion, and forest fires. The country’s long Bay of Bengal coastline, low-lying Ayeyarwady Delta, major river basins, mountainous terrain, monsoon rainfall, climate-sensitive agriculture and fisheries, and fragile infrastructure create a complex risk environment. Climate change is intensifying these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, more extreme precipitation, increasing flood and storm impacts, drought stress, sea-level rise, and water and food-security pressures. Vulnerability is further compounded by conflict, displacement, poverty, weakened institutions, limited humanitarian access, and high dependence on natural-resource-based livelihoods. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, cyclone and flood preparedness, climate-resilient agriculture, water security, coastal protection, resilient infrastructure, disaster risk financing, and inclusive community-based preparedness is essential to reduce losses and protect vulnerable communities.  Myanmar is highly vulnerable to multi-hazard risks due to its long Bay of Bengal coastline, low-lying Ayeyarwady Delta, major river basins, mountainous and landslide-prone terrain, monsoon climate, exposure to tropical cyclones, active seismic setting, high rural dependence on agriculture and fisheries, and the compounding effects of conflict, displacement, poverty, and weakened service delivery.

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Myanmar faces one of the most complex hazard profiles in Southeast Asia. The country is exposed to earthquakes, floods, strong winds, cyclones, storm surges, periodic droughts, fires, tsunamis, and industrial or technological hazards. The 2023 Humanitarian Needs Overview reported that Myanmar ranked very high globally for exposure to natural hazards, particularly floods, earthquakes, and tsunamis.

Cyclones and floods are among the most severe recurring hazards. Myanmar’s coastline is exposed to tropical cyclones forming in the Bay of Bengal, and major cyclone events have included Cyclone Nargis in 2008, Cyclone Mocha in 2023, and the flood and landslide impacts associated with Typhoon Yagi in 2024. The World Bank notes that damaging tropical cyclone occurrence has shown an increasing trend in recent decades, with impacts caused by high winds, storm surge, floods, and associated landslides. (World Bank)

2. Climate change as a risk multiplier

Climate change is increasing Myanmar’s exposure to rapid-onset and slow-onset hazards. The Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre reports that Myanmar faces high disaster risk and is exposed to riverine, urban and coastal flooding, tropical cyclones, landslides, heatwaves, and droughts; it also notes that mean annual temperature increased by about 0.2°C per decade during 1961–2015.

Myanmar’s Climate Change Strategy states that observed and projected climate impacts are heightening the risks of rapid-onset disasters such as floods and cyclones, while also driving slower changes including erratic rainfall, higher temperatures, reduced agricultural productivity in the Central Dry Zone, sea-level rise, and soil salinization.

3. Cyclone, storm surge, and coastal vulnerability

Myanmar’s coastal regions, especially Rakhine State, Ayeyarwady Region, Yangon Region, Mon State, and Tanintharyi Region, are highly vulnerable to cyclones, storm surge, coastal flooding, erosion, and saltwater intrusion. The Ayeyarwady Delta is particularly exposed because of its low elevation, dense rural settlements, rice production, fisheries, river channels, and proximity to the Bay of Bengal.

Cyclone Nargis remains the most devastating example of Myanmar’s cyclone risk. The World Bank’s 2025 flood assessment notes that Nargis caused up to 146,000 deaths in the low-lying Irrawaddy/Ayeyarwady Delta and generated very large economic damages and losses. (World Bank) This demonstrates the importance of cyclone early warning, evacuation planning, resilient shelters, coastal embankments, mangrove restoration, and last-mile risk communication.

4. Flood and landslide vulnerability

Flooding is one of Myanmar’s most recurrent and damaging hazards. Flood risk is high along major river systems including the Ayeyarwady, Chindwin, Sittaung, Salween/Thanlwin, Bago, and Yangon river systems, as well as in urban areas with poor drainage. The Climate Centre notes that flooding frequently occurs during the rainy season from June to October, and that rainfall has become more intense and unpredictable, increasing flood risk.

The 2024 Typhoon Yagi-related floods show how severe this risk can become. The World Bank estimated that nearly 2.4 million people, more than 1 million structures, about 430,000 hectares of cropland, and around 2,200 km of road infrastructure were exposed to flooding caused by Typhoon Yagi in Myanmar. (World Bank) Reported impacts included more than 433 deaths, over 958,000 people affected, more than 320,000 people displaced, damaged roads and bridges, affected schools, damaged telecommunication towers, electricity disruption, and large areas of flooded cropland. (World Bank)

5. Drought, heat, and Central Dry Zone vulnerability

Drought and heat stress are major concerns, particularly in Myanmar’s Central Dry Zone, where rainfall variability, high temperatures, water scarcity, degraded soils, and dependence on rainfed farming increase vulnerability. Climate change is expected to worsen agricultural water stress, reduce crop yields, disrupt planting calendars, increase livestock stress, and affect rural livelihoods.

Drought also interacts with food insecurity, migration, water access, and health risks. Households with limited irrigation, savings, insurance, and livelihood diversification are especially vulnerable. Climate shocks in dry-zone areas can therefore become both food-security risks and poverty/debt risks.

6. Agriculture, fisheries, and livelihood vulnerability

Myanmar’s rural economy is highly climate-sensitive. Agriculture, fisheries, and livestock are central to livelihoods and food security, but they are exposed to floods, droughts, salinity intrusion, heat stress, pests, diseases, and cyclone damage. The Climate Centre notes that as much as 85% of rural livelihoods depend on climate-sensitive sectors, and that agriculture is a core sector employing a large share of the labour force.

Key agricultural vulnerabilities include:

7. Water, WASH, and health vulnerability

Myanmar’s water systems are vulnerable to both drought and flood contamination. Flooding can damage wells, ponds, water systems, latrines, roads, and health facilities, while drought can reduce safe water availability and increase pressure on groundwater. Coastal areas also face increasing saltwater intrusion, which can make groundwater unsuitable for drinking and agriculture.

Climate change also increases public health risks. The Climate Centre notes that climate change is expected to increase risks from vector-borne and waterborne diseases, damage health infrastructure, and increase injury, loss of life, and mental-health challenges. Floods can increase cholera, typhoid, hepatitis A, and other waterborne disease risks, while heatwaves can increase heat-related illness and mortality.

8. Urban and infrastructure vulnerability

Urban areas such as Yangon, Mandalay, Nay Pyi Taw, Bago, Mawlamyine, and coastal towns face risks from urban flooding, poor drainage, river overflow, heat stress, cyclones, water contamination, and infrastructure disruption. Yangon is particularly vulnerable because of its low-lying deltaic setting, river confluences, urban growth, drainage congestion, and exposure to coastal and riverine flooding.

Critical infrastructure risks include:

9. Earthquake and tsunami vulnerability

Myanmar also faces significant geophysical risk. The country is exposed to seismic activity, including along major fault systems, and to tsunami risk along its coast. Earthquakes can damage buildings, roads, bridges, hospitals, schools, water networks, and power systems. Coastal earthquake and tsunami risk is particularly serious where warning coverage, evacuation routes, shelters, and public awareness are weak.

UNDRR emphasized in 2025 that Myanmar requires stronger support to understand climate and disaster risks and to strengthen early warning systems, including after earthquake impacts. (UNDRR)

10. Conflict-sensitive and social vulnerability

Myanmar’s disaster risk is strongly intensified by conflict, displacement, access constraints, poverty, and weakened institutions. Floods, cyclones, and earthquakes can affect areas where humanitarian access is already restricted, infrastructure is damaged, and communities have limited coping capacity. The World Bank’s 2025 analysis of Typhoon Yagi specifically notes that conflict and insecurity complicated disaster impacts, limited access to affected areas, and constrained humanitarian response and recovery. (World Bank)

The most vulnerable groups include internally displaced people, conflict-affected communities, smallholder farmers, landless rural workers, fishing communities, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, ethnic minority communities, informal urban settlers, and people living in flood-prone, cyclone-prone, drought-prone, landslide-prone, coastal, or seismic areas.

11. Priority resilience needs

Myanmar’s resilience agenda should prioritize:

The Myanmar Disaster Preparedness Agency (MDPA) is the national focal point for planning, executing, facilitating and coordinating disaster preparedness activities. The Myanmar National Disaster Preparedness Agency (MDPA) was constituted in 2011 under the Chairmanship of the Union Minister of Social Welfare, Relief and Resettlement. https://mohadm.nugmyanmar.org

Department of Disaster Management (DDM)

Relief and Resettlement Department had emerged in Myanmar since the pre-independence .1945, a center for social and rehabilitation has emerged in the Office of the Director load desertion collecting loans and resettlement issues. 1948 When independence of Education, Ministry of Social and Rehabilitation was originally formed as operations proceed. Education on (1-11-1951) Relief and re-formed as the Ministry of placement loan collection, deserters Insurgency community housing forsaken supplies to rescue people, destroyed homes and placed back in service. (17-3-1952) Day, in collaboration with the Ministry of Minority Affairs in the Ministry of Relief and Resettlement, re-established as an IDP loans collection Relief aid and resettlement work. The emergence of social welfare activities, social welfare, 1953 Relief and re-formed as the Ministry of resettling 1957 Relief Re-positioning, and was reorganized as the Ministry of National Unity. In 1972, rescue, Resettlement and the Ministry of National Unity formed as canceled. Relief and Resettlement Department under the Ministry of Social Welfare Department. Relief and Resettlement Department, Emergency Management Center (EOC), Disaster Management Training Center (DMTC), Region / State Department’s Office (15) Office and the Office of the District Officer’s Office (29) activities. On 31.1.2018 the name of Relief and Resettlement Department, the Department of Disaster Management name was transformed.

Department of  Rehabilitation

Department of Rehabilitation undertakes its tasks by underlining the rehabilitation programs on peace and ethnic affairs and abiding the policy of ministry which is bringing about the society that ensure enjoyment of human rights through providing rehabilitation programs for people with disabilities, ex-drug addicts, human trafficking, sex trafficking, child soldiers, abandoned children, child soldier, child rape survivors, children in conflict with the law, street children, pregnant women, older people, commercial sex workers, natural disasters  and manmade disasters.Department of Rehabilitation undertakes its tasks by underlining the rehabilitation programs on peace and ethnic affairs and abiding the policy of ministry which is bringing about the society that ensure enjoyment of human rights through providing rehabilitation programs for people with disabilities, ex-drug addicts, human trafficking, sex trafficking, child soldiers, abandoned children, child soldier, child rape survivors, children in conflict with the law, street children, pregnant women, older pe

Useful Documents

An appeal to the Director of the Myanmar Disaster Preparedness Agency (MDPA)