Lebanon

Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Lebanon

Lebanon is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its Mediterranean climate, mountainous terrain, water scarcity, declining precipitation, stressed groundwater systems, coastal concentration of people and assets, degraded forests, aging infrastructure, economic fragility, and dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture, tourism, ecosystems, and public services. The country faces growing risks from droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, flash floods, landslides, storms, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, earthquakes, and climate-sensitive health impacts. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, more frequent heat extremes, prolonged dry periods, reduced water availability, increased wildfire danger, extreme rainfall events, urban flooding, sea-level rise, and pressure on agriculture, water resources, forests, health systems, infrastructure, and vulnerable communities. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, water security, wildfire preparedness, flood and landslide risk reduction, climate-resilient agriculture, coastal adaptation, urban drainage, resilient health systems, disaster risk financing, and community-based preparedness is essential to reduce losses and protect Lebanon’s development gains.

Lebanon is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its Mediterranean climate, mountainous terrain, narrow coastal plain, high urban concentration, stressed water systems, degraded forests, climate-sensitive agriculture, aging infrastructure, economic fragility, and exposure to recurrent droughts, floods, wildfires, landslides, storms, heatwaves, earthquakes, and coastal hazards.

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Lebanon’s main climate and disaster risks include fires, floods, landslides, droughts, storms, coastal erosion, severe weather, and earthquakes. Lebanon’s National Center for Natural Hazards and Early Warning identifies fires, floods, landslides, storms, and droughts as prevailing hazards and states that its mandate covers natural-hazard studies, models, and specialized maps for floods, landslides, coastal erosion, drought, forest fires, and severe weather. (NEWSP)

The country also faces important geophysical risk, particularly earthquake risk, because of its location along active fault systems in the eastern Mediterranean region. In Beirut, seismic, tsunami, coastal flooding, and urban flooding risks have been assessed to inform long-term urban development planning. (GFDRR)

2. Climate change as a risk multiplier

Lebanon’s 2025 National Adaptation Plan describes the country as one of the more climate-vulnerable countries in the Mediterranean region, facing increasing temperatures, erratic rainfall, and prolonged droughts. It identifies eight priority adaptation sectors: agriculture, water resources, biodiversity, forestry, urban infrastructure, tourism, public health, and disaster risk reduction. (UNFCCC)

Climate projections indicate that heatwaves will intensify, with up to 12–13 additional hot days above 35°C annually by 2041–2060, while precipitation is projected to decline by 1.5 to 7.1 mm per month by mid-century under a high-emissions scenario. Sea-level rise of 30–80 cm by 2100 is expected to threaten coastal infrastructure, freshwater aquifers, and economic activity in major cities such as Beirut, Tripoli, and Saida.

3. Water scarcity and drought vulnerability

Water scarcity is one of Lebanon’s most critical climate vulnerabilities. ThinkHazard classifies Lebanon’s water scarcity hazard as high, meaning droughts are expected on average every five years, with risks to agriculture, food production, freshwater availability, electricity supply, sanitation, and public services. (Think Hazard)

Lebanon’s NAP states that water resources are under severe stress from declining precipitation, rising evaporation, inefficient management, earlier snowmelt, and declining river flows. It also reports that groundwater reserves have dropped by 30–35 meters over the past four decades, while unsustainable extraction has accelerated depletion.

The severity of this risk was evident in 2025, when Lebanon experienced what experts described as its worst drought on record. Water levels in Lake Qaraoun, the country’s largest reservoir on the Litani River, fell to historic lows, threatening agriculture, electricity production, and domestic water supplies; inflows during the wet season reached only 45 million cubic metres, compared with an annual average of about 350 million cubic metres. (Reuters)

4. Flood, stormwater, and landslide vulnerability

Lebanon is increasingly affected by flash floods, especially in urban areas where intense rainfall interacts with aging drainage networks, dense development, blocked stormwater systems, poor land-use control, and limited maintenance. The NAP reports that extreme events, including floods, wildfires, and heatwaves, are increasing in frequency and severity, and that flash flooding is intensifying in urban areas.

Landslide susceptibility is also high. ThinkHazard classifies Lebanon’s landslide susceptibility as high, citing rainfall patterns, terrain slope, geology, soil, land cover, and potential earthquake triggers as factors that make localized landslides a frequent hazard phenomenon. (Think Hazard)

5. Wildfire and forest vulnerability

Wildfire risk is a growing threat to Lebanon’s forests, rural communities, biodiversity, tourism areas, and mountain landscapes. Lebanon’s NAP states that wildfire threats are intensifying as consecutive dry days and days above 35°C and 40°C are projected to double by the end of the century. It also reports that Lebanon recorded over 1,000 wildfires in 2021, triple the number recorded in 2019.

Wildfire risk is especially important in Chouf, Akkar, Mount Lebanon, and other mountain forest belts, where drought, heat, land mismanagement, fuel accumulation, and weak enforcement can increase fire intensity and ecosystem degradation.

6. Agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods

Agriculture is highly vulnerable to drought, heat stress, declining water availability, erratic rainfall, wildfire, pests, soil degradation, and irrigation-energy constraints. Lebanon’s NAP notes that floods, droughts, and extreme weather events are projected to cause agricultural damages reaching US$250 million annually, disproportionately affecting vulnerable farming communities.

The most exposed agricultural areas include the Bekaa Valley, Baalbek-Hermel, Akkar, South Lebanon, and arid or semi-arid inland zones, where chronic water scarcity and declining agricultural productivity are priority concerns.

7. Coastal and urban vulnerability

Lebanon’s coastal cities and infrastructure are vulnerable to sea-level rise, coastal erosion, coastal flooding, saltwater intrusion, storm impacts, and urban heat stress. The NAP identifies coastal cities, tourism corridors, industrial zones, low-lying urban neighborhoods, and critical infrastructure as priority areas for climate-risk adaptation.

Urban resilience is a major priority because cities such as Beirut, Tripoli, Sidon/Saida, and other coastal and peri-urban areas face combined risks from heatwaves, flash floods, aging drainage systems, water shortages, infrastructure stress, informal settlements, and high population density. Lebanon’s NAP proposes sustainable urban drainage systems, nature-based flood management, climate-resilient mobility corridors, energy- and water-efficient buildings, and urban green infrastructure.

8. Public health and social vulnerability

Climate change is increasing public-health risks through heat stress, air pollution, wildfire smoke, water scarcity, waterborne disease risks, respiratory illness, food insecurity, and disruption of medical services during extreme events. Lebanon’s NAP notes that higher temperatures and wildfire smoke worsen respiratory conditions, while heatwaves and power outages can disrupt hospital services.

Social vulnerability is intensified by Lebanon’s economic crisis, infrastructure degradation, refugee-hosting pressures, poverty, limited savings, and weakened capacity to invest in adaptation. The World Bank’s Lebanon Country Climate and Development Report notes that the ongoing economic crisis is weakening human, natural, and physical capital and eroding the country’s already limited capacity to adapt to climate change. (World Bank)

Sector-specific vulnerability summary

Priority resilience needs

Lebanon’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, drought monitoring, water-resource management, groundwater regulation, flood forecasting, wildfire early warning, landslide-risk mapping, climate-resilient agriculture, sustainable urban drainage, coastal-zone management, ecosystem restoration, heat-health action planning, resilient health facilities, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation.