Roadmap for Implementation of Early Warning for All (EW4ALL) Initiative 2024-2027/2030 for Somalia

Building Disaster Resilient Somalia

( This document was developed for a UN Agency, and it is copyright-protected)

Executive Summary

Early Warnings for All (EW4ALL)—a global initiative to ensure that everyone on Earth is protected by early warnings by 2027—is being fast-tracked into action on the ground. The UN Secretary-General released an action plan for this initiative in November 2022, emphasizing the urgent need to support the most vulnerable first.

The Office of the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) supported the Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) /National Disaster Management Organization(NDMO) in facilitating the design and drafting of a Roadmap for implementing the Early Warning for All (EW4ALL) Initiative in Somalia.

While governments play a crucial role in driving action on early warning services for their citizens, adopting a “whole-of-society” approach that involves all stakeholders, including civil society and the private sector, can better strengthen and sustain early warning services.

It’s equally important to recognize that disasters and climate change affect people differently based on gender, age, and other factors. Therefore, an intersectional approach is required to ensure that the early warning services are inclusive, responsive, and equitable. By involving all sectors of society and taking an intersectional approach, early warning services can be more effective in protecting vulnerable populations from the impacts of disasters and climate change.

As these events become increasingly frequent and intense, efforts to build resilience and coping capacities are crucial. Climate change is also a major driver of conflict in Somalia, for example, as declining groundwater levels drive up water prices and increase the likelihood of conflict over water and access to livelihoods. Multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) linked to early actions are key to Somalia’s efforts to manage risks, enhance adaptation, and build resilience.

The National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Centre (NMHEWC) was established to provide adequate and timely warnings of possible risks posed by hazards. However, the country lacks a robust early warning system infrastructure that enables policy and institutional environments for the dissemination of warnings.

In this context, the SoDMA/NDMO calls for the national Rollout of the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative, finalizing the gap analysis, and agreeing on a roadmap to consolidate and extend the coverage of MHEWS, empowering and enabling early action by individuals and communities, especially those most in need.

1.0 Introduction: EW4ALL

Somalia needs to implement risk-informed tools for climate-proof planning and support disaster risk management governance with thematic forecasts, weather warnings, and public alerting to prepare the country for, respond to, and recover from extreme weather events.

Somalia is already experiencing significant losses and damage from human-induced climate change. The direct economic impacts of extreme climate events, such as droughts and floods, affect vital sectors like agriculture and livestock. Agriculture, including the livestock sector, is Somalia’s largest employer and second-largest commodity export. Nearly one-fourth of the population is agropastoralists, with smallholder farming making up approximately.

80% of total crop production and 70% of the marketed produce. Over 60% of the Somali population depends on livestock, contributing 40% to the country’s GDP[1]. Hydrometeorological hazards are recurrently impacting those productive sectors.

Losses and damages can result from extreme weather and climate events that occur relatively quickly, such as floods, tropical storms, heat waves, and protracted droughts. Direct economic loss and damage to the agriculture sector in Somalia are estimated to have totaled $5.68[2] Billion, of which about half, $2.84 billion, representing 5% of agriculture GDP on average between 2000 and 2021, could be attributable to climate change. Climate-attributable livestock and crop loss and damage of (on average) $129 million are already incurred yearly in Somalia.

From 2008 to 2011, droughts in the Horn of Africa triggered a cycle of heightened and persistent food insecurity. In combination with other factors – including conflict, low incomes, escalating global commodity prices, marginalization of certain ethnic groups, and insecurity limiting humanitarian access – the droughts are estimated to have plunged 17% of the population of southern and central Somalia into famine conditions (Majid and McDowell, 2012; Maxwell and Fitzpatrick, 2012). The cascading impacts of the droughts exacerbated poverty and other elements of vulnerability in the country.

On average, Somalia’s direct economic impacts from droughts and floods amounted to 7.9% of the country’s GDP between 2000 and 2021, excluding the 2010 drought events.[3]. About half (3.3% of GDP) of these total losses and damages could be attributable to climate change. Including the 2010/2011 drought, which led to economic damages of over $4 billion, this proportion of attributable loss and damage rises to 8.4% of GDP. Furthermore, between 2000 and 2021, on average, these attributable direct economic losses and damages equaled 86% of government revenues, excluding the 2010 drought event (over 200% of government revenues, including the 2010 drought event).

Somalia intended the EW4ALL system to be the center of excellence for instrumentalizing sustainable development and providing technocratic policymakers with sufficient, evidence-based tools for risk-informed planning, budgeting, and project implementation processes. Most importantly, EW4ALL would enhance the country’s risk finance policy and advocacy, empowering access to the global risk finance domains.

The EW4ALL roadmap (2024-2027/2030) outlines the pathway for the effective implementation of the EW4ALL pillars over the period of 2024-2027 and beyond. The intended structure and process would enable the evolution of a Multi-hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS), including hazard forecasts and warning dissemination, to provide holistic support for Disaster Risk Management (DRM), Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) & Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) interventions. Therefore, developing an enabling environment by establishing a simple and well-understood law or policy, or an institutional framework, along with forecasting services, is necessary. It is recommended that clear responsibilities be established to create a smoother workflow from start to finish. EWS are proven, efficient, and cost-effective DRR and CCA measures that save lives and provide a tenfold return on investment. Yet, major gaps in early warning systems remain global, especially when translating early warnings into risk-informed early action.

[1] Government of Somalia, 2018

[2] & 3 Pastoralism and Agriculture in Recurrent and Protracted Crisis (SPARC) programme, September 2024

1.1 Vision EW4ALL

The National EW4ALL roadmap envisions that by 2027, all Somali people will be protected by a robust, government-led multi-hazard early warning system.

1.2 Principles EW4ALL

The following principles underpin Somalia’s Roadmap for EW4ALL Implementation and reflect the spirit of disaster risk governance for Somalia. The core principles serve as the basis of the EW4ALL Initiative and guide the implementation of critical functions of the country’s National Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (NMHEWS).

Accountability – All government and non-governmental parties should be held accountable for the early warning information and predictions they produce.

Credibility—Early warning information and analysis must come from credible sources and earn the trust and confidence of their users.

Do no harm—All parties shall endeavor not to cause damage or suffering due to their actions regarding DRM/early warning.

Ethical – DRM/early warning operations and decision-making shall always be guided by ethics and values that accept and respect the primacy of human life and human dignity.

Impartiality – Early warning information, analysis, and decisions should be based on objective data without bias, prejudice, discrimination, or a preference to benefit one group or community.

Leaving no one behind – EWS shall address the concerns, needs, and inclusion of the most vulnerable social groups, including women, youth, children, people with disability, and the elderly.

Neutrality—Early warning information, analysis, and decisions do not take sides and shall be conducted regardless of the political, faith, identities, or social background of the people or communities under the coverage of EWS.

People-centered and community-oriented—EWS should seek to preserve and include local and ‘traditional’ perspectives and Indigenous knowledge to strengthen community ownership. It should be developed in collaboration with the end-users, and the disaster-affected people shall communicate and understand its impacts. It needs to be more people-oriented with a focus on last-mile outreach.

Transparency—EWS should be transparent, allowing public access to early warning data and knowledge products. Both at federal and regional levels, EWS should be located within government structures and operate within a clear legal framework, with the spirit of accessing the information as a credible source for public benefit.

1.2 Goals and Objectives EW4ALL

Early Warnings for All is built on four pillars that are the cornerstones of the initiative and of effective multi-hazard early warning. The purpose of this Roadmap is to identify the current gaps in the four pillars of EW4ALL and suggest ways to overcome these gaps; more specifically, the roadmap aims to:

Improve Disaster risk knowledge and management (led by UNDRR) : Enhance risk knowledge of institutions, stakeholders, and the frontline community. Enhance institutional risk assessment capacity, risk repository development, risk data, and tools to generate impact-based early warning products and information services.
Improve Detection, observation, monitoring, analysis, and forecasting (led by WMO) : Somali access to improved weather observation data for forecasting, access to global & regional forecasting products from GPCs, RSMCs, and HMHS. Formulation of national hydrometeorological plans, strategies, and legislation in hydromet observation and acquisition of Essential climate variables (ECV) , data calibration, collation, and data attribution for meteorological forecasting. Enhance the National Multi-hazard Early Warning Center ( NMHEWC) in innovative forecasting, nowcasting, and prediction capability.
Improve Warning dissemination and communication (led by ITU) : Enhance national institutional, stakeholders, and frontline capacity in the risk communication value chain, translating forecasts into localized early warning, common alerting, weather warning, and NMHS, SoDMA , local stakeholders’, and community capacity in the people-centered warning system.
Better Preparedness and response capabilities (led by IFRC/FAO/SRCS): Enhance the capacity of SoDMA, Local government, local nonstate actors/stakeholders, and community capacity in disaster preparedness and response capacity. Improve instructional capacity in Disaster Risk Management (DRM), Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), and resilience-building capacity.

Figure 1: Early Warning for All (EW4ALL) objective

1.4 Rationale of National Multi-hazard Early Warning Center (NMHEWC) installation

The National Multi-hazard Early Warning Center (NMHEWC) was established in 2019 following an executive order by the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) and is led by a joint inter-ministerial Committee of the OPM and MoHADM. The main purpose of NMHEWC is to coordinate and lead significant Emergency Responses and provide a coordinated, timely, and efficient response in case of future disasters and emergencies. The NMHEWC aims to enhance the institutional capacity of all governments for holistic disaster risk management.

SoDMA/NDMO is entrusted with executing the operational modality of NMHEWC and is governed by the honorable Prime Minister. Having NMHEWC under the auspices of the Office of the Prime Minister is expected to enhance its leadership among all government ministries and agencies involved in DRM in the country, as well as with FMS, UN Agencies, and development partners.

The NMHEWC has central roles and responsibilities in synchronizing and synergizing all state institutions that run ad-hoc emergency responses and non-state DRM and humanitarian actions currently undertaken by UN Agencies, INGOs, and CSOs nationwide. The SoDMA/NDMO plays a pivotal role in networking key representatives from federal and member state level institutions, donor communities, UN agencies, INGOs, NGOs, private sector multinationals, and financial institutions, establishing a model for effective emergency management.

1.5 SoDMA/NDMO EW4ALL initiative

On October 15, 2023, H.E., the President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, nominated the Somalia Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) as the right national focal institution to lead the EW4All initiative at the national level.

In collaboration with the UNDP Somalia country office, the EW4ALL initiative is now operationalized under the leadership of SoDMA. The National Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center (NMHEWC) is already operational under SoDMA, positioning the institution as the most effective way to continue coordinating the scaling-up of the EW4All Initiative into action at the national level.

On November 15 – 16, 2023, SoDMA held a national consultation to launch Early Warnings for All (EW4All) in partnership with the United Nations Resident Coordinator Office (UNRCO) and the United Nations Country Team (UNCT) and in technical cooperation with UNDRR, World Meteorological Office (WMO), and International Telecommunication Union (ITU) as global co-leads for the Secretary-General’s EW4All initiative.

Affirming Somalia’s commitment to the objectives and spirit of EW4All, national government stakeholders, in partnership with UN country teams led by UNDP, came forward to articulate priorities and gaps to be addressed across the four EWS pillars.

On June 9–10, 2024, a workshop was held in Mogadishu to finalize the gap analysis and develop a national roadmap for implementing the Early Warning for All (EW4ALL) Initiative in Somalia, marking the rollout of the initiative.

The Roadmap for Early Warning for All (EW4ALL) builds on the country’s existing National Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (NMHEWS) and is concurrent with Somalia’s commitment to the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015–2030).

Critically, the Roadmap development process has been accompanied by a systematic reform initiative to align it with Article 3, paragraph 6, and Article 7, paragraph 2, of Law 17/2016, which establishes the Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA). These Articles state the clear responsibility of SODMA to gather information and report on disasters and the risks facing the country, and to send out early warnings in collaboration with organizations inside and outside the country working on these activities. This is a positive step towards elevating the portfolio of SODMA, strengthening the Agency’s role by creating a functioning National Multi-Hazard Early Warning System. It will also provide the agency with an extended mandate to effectively coordinate DRM endeavors with multiple stakeholders, including regional and Federal Member State (FMS) government bodies, representatives of civil society organizations, and National Red Crescent Societies. The arrangement of this Roadmap also expects to promote local community participation and raise public awareness about disaster risk reduction and management. It is hoped that this Roadmap will foster the development of robust collaborations among key early warning stakeholders and establish a coordination mechanism that brings together the EW4ALL Pillar leads and relevant stakeholders.

The roadmap is also expected to facilitate the implementation of the EW4ALL Initiative in Somalia and enhance coordination, accountability, and enforcement of inter-jurisdictional and regional early warning systems and initiatives.

The critical undertaking here is for the Government of Somalia to develop a national EW4All Roadmap 2024-2027, with support from the UN agencies and global EW4All Pillar leads.

Contents

Executive Summary. 6

1.0 Introduction: EW4ALL. 7

1.1 Vision EW4ALL. 8

1.2 Principles EW4ALL. 8

1.2 Goals and Objectives EW4ALL. 8

1.4 Rationale of National Multi-hazard Early Warning Center (NMHEWC) installation. 9

1.5 SoDMA EW4ALL initiative. 9

2.0 Somalian multi-hazard, disaster phenomena & climate change trend. 11

2.1 Somalian current climate projection: 14

2.2 Climate trends, impacts, and Stressors. 14

3.0 Pillar Specific Goal, Outcome, and Workplan. 16