Methodology, Tools, and Guidelines on Forecast-Based Financing (FBF) for Mongolian Context

Prepared by : Z M Sajjadul Islam, UNDP-International Consultant

Acronyms

ALAGaC/           Administration of Land Affairs, Geodesy, and Cartography

ALAMGaC         Agency for Land Administration and Management, Geodesy, and Cartography

AWS     Automatic Weather Station

5W        Who will do what, where, when, and how

BTS        Base transceiver station

CRVA  climate risk and vulnerability assessment

CSV Excel file comma-separated values

CAP      Common Alerting Protocol

CBO/CSO         Community-based organizations / Community services organizations

IBFWS Impact-based Forecast and Warning Services

CRVA   Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

DIMA    National Rangeland Monitoring Database

EM-DAT              Emergency Events Database

DCPC  Data Collection and Processing Center

DTM/DEM         Digital Terrain Models (DTM)/ Digital Elevation  Models (DEM)

EAP       early action protocol

EOC     Emergency Operations Center

FAO      Food and Agriculture Organization

AM/FM Radio Amplitude Modulation/Frequency Modulation

FBF       forecast based Financing

FGD      Focus Group Discussion

GIS        Geographic Information System

GPS      Global Positioning System

HCT      Humanitarian Country Team

HPC      high processing power computing

IBF         impact-based forecasting

ICS        Incidence  Command System

ICT        Information and Communication Technology

IFRC     International Federation of Red Cross and Red

IM          Information Management

IP            Internet Protocol

I-NGOs               International /National Non-Governmental Organization

IRIMHE               Information and Research Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment

IVR        Interactive Voice Response

KII          Key Informant Interviews

KML/KMZ          Keyhole Markup Language

LEMA   Local Emergency Management Agency

L & D    Loss and Damage

MET      Ministry of Environment and Tourism

MIS       Management Information  System

MHEWS             multi-hazard early warning system

MODIS                Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

MoED  Ministry of Economy and Development

MOU    Memorandum of understanding

MoFALI               Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry

MRCS  Mongolian Red Cross Society

NAMEM              National Agency Meteorology and the Environmental Monitoring

NEC      National Emergency Commission

NEMA  National Emergency Management Agency

NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

NOAA   National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

ODBC/JDBC   Open Database Connectivity/ Java Database Connectivity

PDNA   post-disaster damage, loss and needs assessment

NSO     National statistics office

PIU        Project Implementation Unit

PSTN    Public switched telephone network

RIMES Regional Integrated Early Warning System for Africa and Asia

R & D    Research & Development

SMS      Short Message/Messaging Service

SEC      State Emergency Commission

SME      Small and Medium Enterprise

SoD      standing orders on disaster

SOP      Standard Operating Procedures

TWG     Technical Working Group

WCS     Web Coverage Services

WMS    Web Map Service

WFS      Web Feature Service

WPS     Web programming service

UHF      Ultra-high frequency

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNEP   United Nations Environment Programme

UNFPA                United Nations Population Fund

UNICEF              United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund

VHF      Very high frequency

WFP      UN World Food Program

WMO   World Meteorological Organization

Table of Contents

1.0         Introduction: FBF. 5

1.1         Rationale Forecast-based financing (FBF) 5

1.2         Development of centralized dashboard for the FBF decision-making process. 5

1.3 Objective : 6

1.4 Overview of  FBF. 6

1.5   Rationalizing IFB-driven FBF. 7

1.6   IBF driven forecast-based risk financing (FBF) mechanism for Mongolia. 8

2.0 Stakeholder Partnership Coordination and Engagement 9

2.1 Core objective: 9

2.2 FBF Framework approach: 9

2.3   Team composition for the Forecast based financing ( FBF) decision and inclusive functional process  : 10

2.4   Functions of leading partners for the FBF Process. 12

3.0 Risk Finance Planning & decision-making dashboard. 14

3.1  IBF Driven FBF decision-making mechanism.. 15

3.2  Dashboard based tailormade informed tools for integrated early action planning (EAP) and risk financing. 15

4.0 Forecast based Financing (FBF) Process. 22

4.1   FBF framework approach. 23

4.2   IBF integrated FBF for removing  barriers on meteorological  information services and informed tools: 24

4.3   IBF integrated FBF approach for DRR. 24

4.4   FBF risk consideration approach & Readiness for  Climate Risk Finance Mobilization. 25

5.0   Methodology for Developing  Early Action Protocol   ( EAP) 27

5.1 Define  types of EAP and Functions: 27

5.2 Team composition for developing  EAP and early warning based early actions  : 29

5.3  Steps of Developing EAP. 30

5.4 Developing  EAP for managing season-specific and combined  dzud risks. 33

6.0  Early Warning and Early Action for the rapid onset events. 35

6.1  Early Warning and Early Action : 35

6.2     Developing Forecast based early Action : 35

6.3  Anticipatory Actions for Copping the Rapid Onset Hazards. 36

7.0  FBF strategy development for the vulnerable sectors. 38

7.1 :  IBF integrated  informed FBF tool supporting  long-term planning. 38

7.2 IBF & FBF for  tools for supporting   National and Local Government risk-informed Development planning ( aimag, soum, bag) 42

1.0  Introduction: Forecast-Based Financing (FBF) Mechanism

Forecast-based Financing (FBF) is a risk financing mechanism informed by the weather and climate emergencies that are likely to be impending over the high-value elements and having the likelihood of doing the Losses and damages( L & D) beforehand it needs to be well-informed, anticipated, and immediate actions are undertaken to minimize the L & Ds. The FBF critically depends on precision-level forecasting & early warning, anticipatory early action, and early action protocol (EAP). The FBF process needs to be triggered automatically by the integrated weather warning, alerting, multi-hazard early warning, and Impact-based forecasting(IBF) system being operational at met-agency in the wake of climate extreme weather events that are likely to be impending over the ground based on frequency, intensity, and ripple effects of hazards over the days/weeks/months. Therefore integrated IBF and FBF system design encompasses ICT/IT system architecture (informed geospatial tools, IT database of ground level elements, the IT system induced impacts calculation over the medium-high value elements, categorizing elements that are likely to be impacted ) that can automatically estimate anticipatory L & D are likely by the early warning being issues with spatiotemporal scale. The IBF integrated FBF essentially needs to instrumentalize the national disaster management organization (NDMO) at the country level to activate EAP, forecast-based early humanitarian action timely and mobilizing the disaster risk finances e.g, Central Emergency Response Fund, disaster emergency response funds, UN-track funds, national disaster management disaster emergency response funds, etc., for humanitarian response and climate crises to minimize the L & D. However, in the normal circumstances the inclusive risk financing decision-making process can be undertaken based on EAP / forecast based early action for slow-onset multi-hazards are likely to be impending and necessarily ex-ante and ex-post financing for mitigating the climate risks.

The multi-modal risk finances and fiscal mobilization for forecast-based financing, disaster emergency response management, and climate crisis management require informed and evidence-based decision support tools essentially for quantifiable needs put in place before crises start. The process is being tangled by the lingering bureaucratic process to conduct much-needed and life-saving humanitarian assistance.

1.1   Rationale Forecast-based financing (FBF)

Risk-informed local development planning and finance decision-making in normal circumstances entails concerted effort which comes across inclusive participation of all relevant stakeholders (engagement of governments and duty-bearers, stakeholders, donors, I-NGOs,  sector departments, financial institutions, insurers, credit operators, vulnerable community,  etc.) and agreed consensus. The rollout of climate and disaster risk financing instruments is urgently needed to enable governments and the humanitarian sector to strengthen SafetyNet for the most vulnerable and provide timely financing and assistance. However, the rapid-onset extreme weather events and compounding hydrometeorological hazards, geological hazards induced by extreme weather events financial crises, and pandemics, are increasingly exerting daunting challenges to the government’s abilities to manage climate risks at the large scale to initiate efforts to protect the lives, livelihood,s and assets from impending hazards, and the stakeholders/actors essentially need early warning informed and bad weather forecast based anticipatory early action ( risk finances and humanitarian preparedness) before hazards turning to disaster minimizing the human tolls and L & Ds. Operationalizing the FBF mechanism can effectively support needs-based early actions to get the climate frontline well prepared for climate extremes to minimize the L & Ds.

Due to global climate perturbation, extreme weather events are impending as the fastest onset with higher intensities & frequencies and significantly doing loss and damage to the climate frontlines. Improved access to weather information services is now highly demanded by the climate frontlines. Robust observation mechanisms, precision level numerical weather predictions, weather warnings, and multi-hazard early warning systems are indispensable tools for making informed decisions effective at the critical juncture of humanitarian preparedness and response planning at the advent of hazardous impending weather being forecasted over the shortest lead time to prepare for the frontline community for strengthening the withstanding capacity against the impending triggers/hazards that could potentially turn into a disaster and loss and damage are highly likely.

The robust ICT-enabled FBF mechanism is the output of service delivery which comes across multiple and recurrent processes in the background. The FBF process to invoke while national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) issue impact forecasts (triggers) through impact-based forecast platforms e.g., thresholds of impacts, level of early warnings, special alerts, and calculated anticipatory loss and damage of impending hazardous events combined.

The FBF mechanism enables the humanitarian program cycle to access humanitarian funding for early action informed by the impact-based forecast (IBF) on impending extreme weather effects, impact level, risk, vulnerabilities, loss, and damage likely. FBF aims to anticipate disasters, prevent their impact, if possible, and reduce human suffering and losses.

1.2 Development of a centralized dashboard for the FBF decision-making process.

• Setting up a centralized informed Dashboard for visualizing impending multi-hazards, persistent trends of multi-hazards over the ground already experienced, hazardous weather events, proposed high-value elements (City, township, settlements, built-up installations/infrastructures, basic service delivery installations/facilities, key & Critical service delivery installations/facilities) are likely to be impacted, determining what are the effective early action protocol (EAP) being required for early preparedness of every extreme event, what are the early action plannings are required for rapidly addressing the crises and finally what would be inclusive risk-finances are being needed for early mobilizing and early preparedness so that impacts level and L & Ds can effectively be minimized.
• IBF integrated FBF can essentially support the NDMO to come up with quick-time-around inclusive and concerted actionable early action planning participated by the stakeholders(stakeholders, sector departments, other grassroots level state & non-state actors, private sectors, risk-financiers, climate frontlines ) for sectoral level early action protocol development, humanitarian response planning, and sectoral climate action planning and inclusive risk finance allocation and mobilization decision making.
• FBF decision support system to facilitate stakeholders in Hazard/climate crisis-specific inclusive and timely trigger emergency responses, humanitarian assistance and risk mitigation planning, and resource mobilization
• Informed IBF/FBF dashboard-driven informed tools can support Ex-ante and Ex-post financing mechanisms for grand barging with donors/financial institutions, and private sectors, propagation of risk-financing policy, planning & advocacy for optimizing the risk-finance mobilization drives at the internal and external level for addressing slow-onset climate crises.
• FBF Informed tools for facilitating Grand bargaining with donors about the niche demand and optimal uses of risks finances.
• FBF Informed tools supported mixed mode & financing co-financing modality for addressing the slow and medium onset climate crisis.
• Optimum uses of climate risk finances for timely disbursement and undertaking climate actions

1.3 Objective :

The core elements of FbF to inform weather & climate risk-integrated planning decision supports for the allocation of financial resources are agreed upon in advance, together with the specific forecast threshold(triggers) and allocatable resources for the implementation of early actions. The roles and responsibilities of everyone involved in implementing these actions are defined in the Early Action Protocol (EAP), and Early warning-based early action planning. This ensures full commitment to implementation among the involved stakeholders.

1.4 Overview of  FBF

The implementation of the intended FBF mechanism to address the Mongolian disaster emergency management over to comprehensively supporting humanitarian program cycles IBF-driven FBF to inform the scenario setting of what consequences are likely ahead of impending hazards before interacting with the ground. The emergency risk management and critical finance decision-making process depend on the informed tools and the quick-time-around scenario overviews of impending extreme weather events. IBF integrated FBF dashboard intended to support the timely execution of early warning advisory-based on early action, early action planning, contingency planning, disaster emergency preparedness planning and finance mobilization, etc. The evidence-based risk-informed (IBF supplied) decision support tools are essential to mechanize the bureaucratic process for fostering the grand bargains/advocacy with the climate & humanitarian risk financing community for timely mobilization of risk finance to meet the climate crises ahead of impending. Informed tools supported FBF mechanism would be also able to enable stakeholder policy and planning coherence, inclusive-participatory, and self-esteemed multi-stakeholder coordinated participation to risk financing and response to crises.

Day by day climate emergencies are turning to rapid onset patterns and fundamentally the traditional risk management paradigm is gradually becoming ineffective. The new methodology and tools for IBF-informed FBF are intended to meet climate emergencies robustly.

Figure 1: FBF work flow diagram

The traditional climate and multi-hazard risk financing limited to relief and in-kind support mobilization. However, the IBF informed FBF process to be enabled to  leverage the  financing instruments for the humanitarian community to plan contingencies for preparedness in the advent of impending multi-hazards and post-disaster response planning for the frontline community to be better prepared ahead of forecasted impending hazards likely the loss and damages and to understand the impact level minimizing the L & D.

However, the IBF driven FBF  an excellent  leverage for the  humanitarian program cycle ahead of disaster strikes being always faces critical challenges in terms of number of the population are likely to be impacting, magnitude, the threshold of trails of disasters, assessment and  summing up anticipatory L & D , what would be the preparedness for the frontline vulnerable community, forecast-based early action planning, contingency preparation, timely pre-positioning relief items to the doorstep of the vulnerable community, etc., so that loss and damage could be minimized to as lowest as possible.

The dashboard informed IBF can sufficiently meet the humanitarian decision making process  with the evidence-based and ICT-driven tools can represent  the clear picture of where the extreme and hazardous weather event induced impact thresholds are spanning, and exactly how many elements are likely to be impacted based on forecasted extreme weather thresholds. As a result, the national and local government efforts remain challenged to formulate demand-driven contingency planning for the target group and location, prepositioning emergency relief items (types and amount), cash grants, and in-kind support to be prioritizing and essentially to mobilize the most vulnerable areas and hard to reach areas for better preparedness.

1.5   Rationalizing IFB-driven FBF. 

Impact-based forecasting (IBF) is basically an ICT tool driven by an integrated system having the capability for hybrid observation mechanism, multiple ranges and demand-driven weather forecast preparations, analyzing and preparing impact over the forecasted extreme weather events, weather warning, alerting and, multi-hazard early warning system, etc.,  over to a one-stop solution to whole weather and climate information services value chain. Considering the Mongolian current set of climate regimes and patterns, rapidly changing weather phenomena ( from minutes – hourly – diurnally and short-range spanning impacts ) the proposed IBF methodology is being designed as a flagship approach for addressing demand-driven climate information services for stakeholders and target groups.

The FbF process is another outset of the whole climate emergency management process in which the system needs to essentially inform the stakeholders about the risk-informed tools and mandate the inclusive financing mechanism being well incorporated with the whole value chain. We understand disaster emergency risk management is such a time-critical response management process that needs to come across over the quick disposal of decision-making process over the government bureaucratic channel within a short time span otherwise response cannot be mobilized at the point of crisis, effectively and efficiently, and L & D would be the larger extent.

However, integrated IBF & FBF are intended to represent an informed tool driven,  evidence-based grand bargaining instrument being intended objectively to drive foster, self-esteemed, empirically fastening the political and bureaucratic decisions making process which would be supportive to address the onset of climate/weather emergencies, and to planning and mobilizing resources for addressing disaster emergencies, so that quick -time-around decisions can be made to save lives, and properties and getting vulnerable sectors & elements well prepared for the impending hazards.

IBF and concurrent FBF are being attempted to remove the planning and decision-making barriers, creating enabling and coherent coordination mechanism that enables access for funding, planning early action, contingencies, and mobilizing resources for risk preparedness at local level.

1.6   IBF driven forecast-based risk financing (FBF) mechanism for Mongolia.

The whole risk financing mechanism to address the climate risk and crises, impeding hazards, and potential disasters are likely to do damage. The perspective of weather extreme and impending multi-hazards in Mongolia are varying. The risk finance instrument should be aligned with the need-based risk management and deliverability for sustaining actions from national to local to the frontline vulnerable community level.

The persistent climate risk and vulnerability patterns over the Mongolian landscape are recurrently varying over the geographical, landscape, landform, landcover, environmental, and hydrometeorological settings. Additionally, the impending hazardous weather events are also heavily spatiotemporally impactful, and while those events are interacting with the ground-level elements the impact levels also vary from place to place. Considering the variability patterns of both the weather system and landscape – a suitable IBF methodology (proposed) and corresponding FBF methodology and informed tools are also intended.

Informing the whole risk management mechanism, Mongolia needs a variety of impact forecasts for tacking both hazardous weather and good weather whatever is impending and interacting over the grounds. An integrated IBF and FBF are instrumentalized and intended to support the whole spectrum of government climate crisis management strategies. The proposed IBF has a multi-faceted capacity to inform government and stakeholders policy and planning desk for supporting risk management planning, strategies, action planning, program and project design, implementation, and monitoring, etc.

The whole IBF partnership and workflow is mandated to support all demand-driven IBF and FBF. The risk information service upgradation and demand are mounting at pace with climate crises.

2.0 Stakeholder Partnership Coordination and Engagement

 2.1 Core objective:

1. Ensuring inclusive participation of stakeholders (state, non-state, and development partners  ) in risk-informed early action protocol development and strategy for forecast-based financing (FBF).
2. Supporting sector ministry & departments in risk-informed intervention development and inclusive budgeting & financing for better preparedness against the impending different onset extreme weather invents and multi-hazards.
3. Establishing an integrated & inclusive financing mechanism being heavily informed by Impact forecast, early warnings  ( multi-hazards) likely to impend, persisting risk & vulnerabilities, and evidence-based risk financing modality development. Ensure optimized utilization of risk finance by avoiding overarching and duplication of interventions and recurrently giving equal importance to hard-to-reach areas.

2.2 FBF Framework approach:

Addressing the impending multi-hazards ( slow onset,   medium onset, and rapid onset )  risk and vulnerabilities, Mongolia needs a multi-modal risk financing mechanism to address different types of multi-hazards. For the detection of diverse and rapidly changing weather phenomena, an impact forecasting and integrated impact-based forecasting (IBF) methodology is already being proposed. Back-to-back IBF informed FBF intended to inform emergency hazard management agencies, humanitarian actors, and sector departments about how to develop early warning-based early action plans (contingency & preparedness)  to act before disasters to minimize the socio-economic costs of impending weather and climate hazards. 

Multi-stakeholder, vulnerable sectors, relevant organizations, frontline herders, vulnerable communities, and individuals can make critical decisions to ensure that resources and supplies are in place to take early action and to respond as soon as it is safe to do so. IBF-supported FBF plays an important role in facilitating   Red Cross Red Crescent running Forecast-based finance Mobilization, early action planning, and preparedness.

It is however a critical job over the very shortest spanning of a lead-time understandability of the anticipatory impacts, loss & damage, and scalability of impending extreme weather event(s) turning to multi-hazard(s) being just forecasted. IBF-supported FBF can play an important role in overcoming the difficulties relating to the anticipatory estimation of L & D, formulation of early warning-based early actions, detailed early action protocol (EAP), and contingencies for preparedness the forecast-based financing mechanism is essential for mitigating risk and vulnerabilities.

Figure 2: FBF decisions framework – governed by the partnership  and functional coordination process (Source : Z M Sajjadul Islam )

2.3   Team composition for the Forecast based financing ( FBF) decision and inclusive functional process  :

1. Leading the FBF decision making Process :
2. The State Emergency Commission (SEC) of the Prime Minister’s Office ( PMO) 
3. Co-leading the GOM the UN Residence Coordinator (UNRC) with United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Humanitarian Country Team(HCT), UN Clusters ( UN Agencies)

• Other executive members of the decision-making processes;
• Ministries of Finance (MoF), responsibilities for climate change engagement
• Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Light Industry
• Ministry of Environment and Tourism
• Ministry of Economy and Development
• Ministry of Environment and Green Development (MEGD), Economic Development (MED), and
• The central government administration authority responsible for environment and green development (MEGD)
• National Implementing Entity  (NIM)
• Inter-disciplinary and inter-sectoral National Climate Committee /NCC/ now led by the MEGD,
• Designed National Authority (DNA) of Planning
• Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Bureau – MET/NAMA
• Renewable Energy Centre

• Co-Leading FBF decision making Process: Cabinet Secretariat and Ministry of Finance and other relevant sector ministries. Following government departments and stakeholders to support the process;

• National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and functional departments – National Center for Emergency and Disaster Relief (NCEDR), the military serves as first responders for earthquakes, wildfires, forest fires, contagious diseases, snow and dust storms, and severe winters.
• Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) on the behalf of International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies(IFRC).
• Early Action Protocol Development   :
• Aimag Governor
• Soum Governor
• Local Emergency Management Agency (LEMA) of NEMA at aimag/soum level (NEMA Emergency Management Team)
• UN OCHA/HCT/UN Clusters
• FAO’s Early Warning Early Action (EWEA)
• Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) – EOC
• Sector Department at  aimag /soum level  
• NAMEM IBF designated a Technical Working Group (TWG) at HQ level
• NAMEM Aimag EOC, Local Governments at the local level ( Aimag, Soum, Bag)
• Sector Department 
• Stakeholders, Value chain Operators, and Logistic Operators at the Local level

• Early Action Protocol (EAP Pre-Approval) :
• NEMA Emergency Management Team
• NAMEM TWGs
• NAMEM Aimag EOC
• Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) , IFRC
• Sector Department aimag  
• UN OCHA/HCT/UN Clusters
• Local Financing intuitions e.g Government Banks, Private Banks(Khan Bank), Small and medium enterprises( SME)

Figure 3: Schematic View of local governments in Mongolia ( Source: 2021-August, ADB [1])

[1] https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/726896/decentralization-governance-economic-development-mongolia.pdf

1. Formulation of Anticipatory Early Action along with IBF  :
2. Aimag Governor
3. Soum Governor
4. Local Emergency  Management Agency (LEMA) of NEMA at aimag/soum level (NEMA Emergency Management Team)
5. UN OCHA/HCT/UN Clusters
6. Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) – EOC
7. Sector Department at  aimag /soum/bag level  
8. NAMEM IBF designated several technical working Groups (TWG) at the HQ level
9. NAMEM Aimag EOC, Local Governments at the local level( Aimag, Soum, Bag)
10. Sector Department 
11. Stakeholders, Value chain Operators, and Logistic Operators at the Local level

• Review of Impact Forecast on  impeding hazardous weather events   and consequential  situations at the local level:
• NEMA
• MRCS
• NAMEM
• Sector Ministry
• Sector Department
• National Broadcasting network

• Other partners:

1) Bilateral and multilateral cooperation

• The Ministry of the Russian Federation for Affairs for Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters
• Federal Agency for State Reserve, Russian Federation
• Ministry of Emergency Management, People’s Republic of China
• China Earthquake Administration
• State Forestry Administration, People’s Republic of China
• Ministry of Interior and Safety, Republic of Korea
• National Fire Agency, Republic of Korea
• State Committee of Emergency and Disaster Management of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
• General Directorate for Civil Defense and Crises Management, French Republic
• Directorate for Disaster Management, Republic of Hungary
• Ministry of Emergency Situation, Republic of Kyrgyzstan
• Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan
• Other potential partners

• Other International Organizations.
• International Civil Defense Organization (ICDO)
• Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC)
• Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC)
• RIMES
• International Fire Chiefs’ Association of Asia (IFCAA)
• World Bank (WB)
• Asian Development Bank (ADB)
• Mercy Corps
• World Vision (WV)
• Save the Children
• Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)
• Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA)
• Turkish International Cooperation Agency (TICA)
• Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)
• United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
• Other potential partners/donors

2.4   Functions of leading partners for the FBF Process

1. Functional Responsibilities of  Partners  ( slow- medium onset hazards)  :

• State Emergency Commission (SEC) to review IBF – early action plan (EAP) in the corresponding budget, organize policy/strategy dialogue with donors, UNRC ( HCT & Clusters) for advocacy for finances of impending impactful hazards.
• Formulate policy/strategy for the sectors vulnerable to slow onset but largely impactful hazards (e.g. droughts, prolonged winter hazards, waters stress and desertification, deforestation, degradation of pasture biomass/rangeland, etc.).
• Formulation of risk-informed local development planning and budgeting and resource mobilization strategies for meeting financial demands from internal and external sources.
• Developing standing orders on disaster(SOD) and defining activities ( 5W – who will do what, where, when how ) of all stakeholders/actors under SEC  and NEMA disaster emergency management stakeholders
• Formulation Standard operating procedure ( SoP) of operationalizing FBF framework and disaster preparedness
• Formulate climate risk-informed inclusive planning and budgeting for the local governments and strategy for the resource mobilizations (Internal & External).

• Functional Responsibilities on the occurrence of rapid onset hazards and induced disaster.

• Review forecasts, early action protocol (EAP) and plans, anticipatory early actions, and quick approval of EAP.
• Formulate disaster emergency preparedness and response plan(informed by IBF & FBF tools)
• Formulate local governments ( aimag, soum, bag) wise  SOD, and SOP for better functioning humanitarian actions.

• Mandating partners /stakeholders to project and scheme  designing   according to policy, plans, SOD, SOP

The purpose outlines of standing orders on Disaster (SOD) is basically to mandate the roles and responsibilities of  DRM structured and participated stakeholders/sectors/actors, and their activities, during the normal time, during disaster onset. SOP ( 5W – who will do what, where, when how ) of all stakeholders/actors to work coordinately for optimization of DRM activities.

• Develop  FBF framework/SOP – based on the following stages of disaster management cycles at aimag level.

1. Mandating & accountability of local stakeholders for disaster preparedness planning, budgeting, and resource mobilization strategy at Aimag, Soum, Bag level
2. Review the sector ( livestock) risk-repository database, and risk atlas  and  conduct  a comprehensive pre-disaster need assessment, identify the potential risk areas, elements at risk,  anticipatory loss, and damages are likely over the lead-time of the high-impact forecast being issues with IBF.
3. Review local government’s Disaster Risk Management (DRM) plans on slow, medium, and rapid onset multi-hazard events, review corresponding resources to mobilize and funding gaps for mitigating different onset hazards.

• Mandating & accountability of local stakeholders during a disaster emergency
• Collaborate with humanitarian actors and develop situation reports & maps (daily). Anticipatory estimation of L & D of the day, immediate humanitarian needs by communicating with herders, vulnerable groups, and sector departments, and estimate immediate needs ( cash/in-kind/logistic support) for saving lives and assets.

• Supporting Post-disaster rehabilitation :
• Conducting detailed situation reporting of loss & damages of the sectors, herders, vulnerable communities etc., who have lost their livestock, assets, damages physical & financial assets, standing agricultural crops, etc., and advocacy for financing.

3.0 Risk Finance Planning & Decision-Making Dashboard

The Mongolian climate risks and vulnerabilities are seasonally diverse, extreme, uncertain, and have a rapid onset. In normal circumstances, the critical Multi-hazard/disaster/climate risk financing decision-making mechanism runs through a time-consuming process through the governmental channel without having an informed dashboard, based on, e.g., an ICT database-driven, evidence-based (GIS map), stakeholder-concerted, inclusive, and participatory local process. The risk financing partners mostly conduct processes independently and make decisions individually. The integrated IBF & FBF Dashboard-based mechanism is an excellent tool for quick onset/timely decisions, which supports mainstreaming the whole risk assessment, impact forecasting, and corresponding risk financing mechanism in an integrated and informed manner.

Doing so, the coherent approach for coordination, information exchange, and decision-making process is designed in such a way that the inclusive participation of state, non-state actors, partners, financing instruments, project developers, sector ministries and departments, local governments, actors/stakeholders, and vulnerable communities is ensured.  

The design aspect of the IBF & FBF process will substantially reduce the ‘operational frictions’, overlapping, overarching, repetition of funding, and inclusively intervene in all corners of Mongolia so no one is left behind.

The inputs for developing informed tools for informing the dashboard would be the summarized information of every component of IBF and the corresponding FBF process so that an at-a-glance impending & existing risk can be assessed, scenarios can be visualized, action plans and protocol to be concerted to bridge the gaps.

FBF and the critical process can be scientifically determined by informed tools, early warning,  EAP, early actions, etc., to timely decide when, where, how much, how resources are to be mobilized, and how funds are to be released to the climate front-line for undertaking actions.

Figure 2: integrated and inclusive, risk-informed risk-financing decision-making dashboard

The dashboard and FBF online information management system support effective EAP planning, developing impending multi-hazard and disaster contingencies for the sectors, allocations can be determined, funds to timely disbursed, and anticipatory actions can be undertaken automatically before disaster strikes.

This dashboard would establish risk communication strategy for the fastest decision-making and action planning, reliable and effective risk-based planning, potential risk, and damage costs can be reduced by acting early coordinated and accurate measures such as mobilizing emergency relief suppliers, pre-positioning emergency crisis responses, lifesaving items a result of loss and damage could be reduced when dealing with rapid onset hazards. The intended benefits are the followings;

• Support inclusive and participatory local-level response planning and risk financing.
  • Stakeholder, frontlines vulnerable community engagement to the planning and decision-making process
  • Quick decision-making for the anticipatory loss and damage scenarios settings, EAP at the local level
  • Mobilization of Inclusive risk-finance from different sources (potential donors, private sectors, local entrepreneurs, value chain operators, charities, NGOs, SME, Insurer, Credit operators, Sector value chain operators, market promoters, local economy)
  • Identify the potential Sources of finances(internal/external)
  • Grand bargaining and advocacy capacity for optimal level risk finance mobilization
  • Stakeholders agreed and concerted planning and decision-making for averting climate crises.
  • Top-down and bottom-up functionalities in risk assessment, early warnings, loss and damage estimation, EAP, etc.

3.1  IBF Driven FBF decision-making mechanism

The overall macro ,micro, mesoscale  weather phenomena  and climate change impact induced extreme and hazardous rapid onset operational weather conditions,  and consequential impacts are impeding as high-impact phenomena over the landscape. Essentially FBF mechanism is intended not only to address the forecasted immediate extreme weather conditions likely to be causing the humanitarian disasters but also to the whole paradigm of the forecast-based weather/climate risk financing of Mongolia.

Admittedly climate change induced most hazardous weather conditions and extreme weather events now highly intensified spatiotemporal phenomena and even impacts are impending in hourly, and diurnally, which means that every given single hour and diurnally the weather conditions are impending as hazardous. Mongolian microclimatic disturbances are growing day by day in which Mongolia experiencing 4 seasons in a single day! Which contributes to a loss of lives and properties. The remedies and readiness lie with inclusive, ICT driven  informed, and inclusive risk-informed climate information services for inclusive decision making.

Diagnose what are the entry level  strategies for informed planning and budgeting to address spatiotemporal weather & climate-related hazards and crises being adapted by the actors.  The broad-based rapidly Early Decision and Early Action protocol-based action planning and inclusive financing for getting the humanitarian frontline well prepared the averting extreme crises is now a strategic issue, how do we address the crises and uncertainties?

Climate Risk Informed Decision-making methodology for the different onset of hazardous weather events climate change impacts uncertainties depends on concerted efforts in a timely manner. Which would be leveraging to resource mobility to address weather and climate  uncertainties. The ICT dashboard driven emergency risk financing endow the  coherent and consistent approach for dealing with anticipated impacts, necessary emergency planning, and inclusive financing for the climate crisis.

3.2  Dashboard based tailormade informed tools for integrated early action planning (EAP) and risk financing

Mongolian government formulated several long-term national climate disaster risk reductions plans and  policies, green development plans . The Government of Mongolia(GOM) formulated the country’s long-term development strategy Vision 2050[1] . The first phase is to be implemented in 2020-2030, the second from 2031 to 2040, and the third and last one between 2041 and 2050.).   In 2015, the government approved the National Programme of Community Participatory Disaster Risk Reduction. The aim of this programme is to involve the population at a community level in reducing disaster risks by enhancing their knowledge, providing education and training, promoting safe living culture, and strengthening resilience to climate change. In 2016, the Mongolian Sustainable Development Vision 2030 was established to create the national capacity.  NEMA  developed the Mid-Term Strategy to Implement the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in Mongolia (2017-2030). This strategy aims to reduce disaster risks with preventative measures through mitigation and preparedness.

FBF Dashboard based tailormade informed tools required for policy,  planning , designing, Implementation and localization of the following programme at the national and local level;

1. Tailormade IBF informed tools for Supporting Mid-term Plans/Policy/Strategies relating to climate crisis

[1] https://legalinfo.mn/mn/detail/15406

Source : Government Planning Documents  [1]

1. Supporting   Index-based weather insurance  : Sectoral Development, Weather Index-Based Crop Insurance Scheme (WIBCIS)

• Selection of climate proof sectoral activities, crop seedling/sapling , necessary tailormade  risks information services  / operational IBF , crisis mitigating timely and appropriately  developing early action plan (EAP), climate adaptive practices, and boosting sectoral productivity.
• Design Weather Index-Based Crop Insurance Schemes (WIBCIS) , select climate-proofing varieties, climate tolerant agriculture and sustainable agricultural practices, and livestock husbandry and value chain

• Supporting   National Agricultural Insurance Scheme:
• To develop a robust and simple method to adopt weather index-based crop insurance widely across Mongolia for risk mitigation in crop-related activities.
• Review and adopt best insurance practices from private and government agencies.
• Design improved methods for piloting the new schemes and scale-up based on learnings from the pilots.
• Develop and adopt effective monitoring and learning mechanisms.

• Supporting   Index-based insurance:  Weather index-based insurance

• Create a value proposition for the insured and offer insurance as part of a wider package of services;
• Build the capacity and ownership of implementing stakeholders;
• Increase client awareness of index insurance products;
• Access to international risk transfer markets;

• Supporting existing Climate Fiscal Frameworks :

• informed FBF tools so support CFF to provide principles and tools for climate fiscal policy-making, Implementation and localization of  NAP , NDC , NAMA , green development commitments.
• Supporting disaster management planning and budgeting frameworks
• National /central government planning and budgeting for risk-informed development
• Climate change budgetary framework
• IBF, FBF Dashboard driven and stakeholder engaged Local Climate fiscal framework ( local governments)
• Local government risk-informed development planning and budgeting system.

• Informed FBF tools for supporting policy,  advocacy on risk financing

Fundamentally weather and climate emergency risk financing depends on informed plans on what early actions are to be considered for the risk financing and amount of internal and external   financial inclusion to troubleshoot the much-needed climate change induced risk mitigation.

• FBF informed tools for Optimally uses of climate finances to conduct interventions.
• Optimal mobilization of financial resources is needed to address climate change mitigation and adaptation.
• Supporting the Mongolian government to adopt the normative framework provided by UNFCCC – funding should be balanced in allocation between adaptation and mitigation, be committed in the context of transparency on implementation, and should be scaled-up, new and additional, predictable and adequate.
• Supporting government for grand bargaining & advocacy for risk financing
• FBF informed tools to support the planning and implementation of Green Climate Fund (GCF) projects.

• Climate finance readiness
• Dashboard based integrated IBF & FBF informed tools  to support government strategic climate risk management planning, Alignment of Climate fiscal framework, and budgetary provision for risk financing
• Anchoring IBF integrated FBF dashboard with cabinet secretaries, local government planning, and budgeting system for facilitating government different terms development planning and budgeting so that, risk financing decision-making board have the status quo of government development plans and budgets
• FBF stakeholders to advise the government about the re-alignment of annual/five-year  development plans, fiscal plans, and budgetary process for risk-informed development planning,  the allocatable budget segment for ex-ante and ex-post climate risk financing, financial top-up for ongoing climate risk mitigating schemes
• Advisory to central government cabinet secretariat for climate risk consideration over the rural and urban physical infrastructure development
• Advisory to central government cabinet secretariat Accessing IBF and FBF dashboard to review how many local ( aimag, soum, bag) level sector &  sectoral elements(annexure 1),  livelihood assets, basin infrastructures & services, value chain operations, high-value elements(aimag, soum, bag center, and basic infrastructures &  services )  are falling to climate risks, exposures, and vulnerabilities. Ranking the risks and prioritization for the including annual development programe to mitigate highly prioritized climate risks at the local level
• Anchoring and accessing to environmental information center ( EIC) database with the IBF  dashboard and reviewing how many enterprises, industries, open-mining, local heating systems, and  small /independent coal-fired power plants are causes of greenhouse gas emissions.
• Conduct assessment of wind resource potentials of the whole country, setup wind-monitoring stations ( also using weather station anemometer)   for mapping the wind regime of the country. Develop wind power resources potential atlas and supporting government energy & power sector  in formulating a policy and financing approach to promote wind power,
• Conduct assessment of drought and desertification, develop atlas, support government planning desk for undertaking green development, social afforestation, agro-forestry, cover cropping for soil-health improvements for combatting desertification and agricultural extension.
• Supporting government and development of green, low-emission, NetZero climate-resilient development strategies
•  Anchoring IFB-integrated FBF dashboard with NEMA disaster risk management program(DRM) for supporting informed DRM planning and budgeting process.
• FBF informed advisory services to cabinet secretaries, and local governments  to review what UN agencies, I-NGOs, and private sectors are doing regarding climate actions, DRM activities, sectoral development etc, by liking those partners with  FBF dashboard for constantly reviewing the 4/5W  database for avoiding duplicity,   optical uses of risks finances, appropriate project/scheme selection at the local level. The FBF dashboard facilitates the following risk financing mechanisms; 

1. Financial Planning :
2.  Assess needs and priorities, and identify barriers to investment
3.  Identify policy-mix and sources of financing

• Accessing Finance(internal , External):
• Directly access finance
• Blend and combine finance
• Formulate project, program, and sector-wide approaches accessing finance

• Delivering Finance
• Implement and execute project, program, sector-wide approaches
• Build local supply of expertise and skills
• Coordinate implementation

• Monitor, Report & Verify
• Monitor, report, and verify flows
• Allocation  of Performance-based climate resilient grants for the local level stakeholders 

•  Decision support for  Adaptation Financing:

IBF supported State-of-the-art ICT empowered tools for risk screening, impact based meteorological information services,  MIS-driven risk interpretation process , and quick time around tools for informing early action planning.

• From the aimag, soum, bag level assessed climate risk and vulnerabilities with the database repository and risk atlas the planning desk to determine the appropriate areas and appropriate adaptation projects/schemes to be viable for implementation at the local level.
• Develop geographic and climate zone based CRVA and determining adaptation options.
• Mapping all hydrological, environmental, ecological resource regions, floodplains, arable agricultural lands for agricultural cropping, forage cropping, and other adaption projects, local ecology-based adaptation options.
• From the local government’s conducted CRVA, identify how many adaptations schemes would be appropriate based on local resources
• From CRVA identify how many agricultural adaptation schemes are viable for implementation based on local .resources and ecology’
• Supporting the holistic initiative to combat drought & desertification:  IBF and FBF informed tools for supporting the planning process, project and scheme selection (social afforestation, agroforestry, ecology-based pasture development ) , and intervention design for combatting drought & desertification.

• FBF Informed tools to support green development pathways   :

The Climate Resilience Pathway is structured around delivering the overall vision and through three outcomes: resilient people and livelihoods; resilient businesses and economies; and resilient environmental systems. Under this, five main impact areas have been identified that require immediate action to put climate risk at the heart of decision-making with increased availability and quality of finance invested for a range of interventions at the local level.

• Climate risk and vulnerability assessments, discloser and monitoring
• IBF integrated Early warning systems and FBF-informed tools for early action.
• Multi-hazards preparedness and contingency planning, Emergency response
• Climate risk governance & capacity building at central, sectoral and local governments level
• Nature-based solutions to reduce risk across the sector.
• Climate-proofing infrastructure and services
• Risk transfer – insurance and social protection
• Sharing knowledge and best practice on climate risk management.
• Facilitating the volume, quality, and access to public and private finances

• Advisory support for Public risk finance management:
• Anchoring FBF dashboard with Finance Ministry MIS system for supporting government risk-financing planning process with dashboard-based informed tools.
• FBF  integrated informed tools for facilitating the development of financial resilience policies and best practices risk finance decisions making process development.
• FBF advisory to cabinet secretariat and Ministry of Finance in size of budget and finances are equitably and essentially allocate for addressing burning climate crises.
• FBF advisory for equitable budgeting for ex-ante & ex-post project financing for achieving climate action goals

1. Facilitating the coordination mechanism and accountability to affected populations (AAP) for risk finance management:

• FBF dashboard expected to provide sufficient information for UN-HCT/I-NGOs, stat & non-state stakeholders for implementation of humanitarian interventions under the accountability to affected populations (AAP) and collective AAP action plans being implemented. Anchoring AAP dashboard to support  the action plans and  activities over dashboard-driven AAP  management and  M & E.

[1]  www.cabinet.gov.mn ,

https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/d8files/event-documents/Mongolia%20-%20Climate%20Change%20and%20Disaster%20Risk%20Profile.pdf , https://www.adaptation-undp.org/mongolia-achieves-milestone-national-adaptation-planning , https://cabinet.gov.mn/wp-content/uploads/2050_VISION_LONG-TERM-DEVELOPMENT-POLICY.pdf

4.0 Forecast based Financing (FBF) Process

Global climate perturbation rapidly impacting regional and local climates and impending hazardous events characterizing more rapid-onset. The  landlocked  Mongolian climate and weather system the most diverse, extreme, and varied spatiotemporal ( hourly/diurnally) which hardest hits the livelihood sector. Mongolia needs to be graduating from traditional weather forecast to an integrated impact forecasting, warning, alerting, and multi-hazard early warning system. The most vulnerable sectors are agriculture &  livestock, water, agroecology and soil, pasture and biomass, tourism, environment & forest, transport  and communication, and urban settlements.

However, in this given precarious weather system and the multidimensional onset of hydrometeorological hazardous conditions and recurrent predictability a demand-driven IBF platform and corresponding FBF need to develop and operate. The IBF supported FBF’s ability to provide informed tools for mechanizing the risk-financing process for Mongolia so that vulnerable sectors and elements are well prepared for coping with the climate crises.

The traditional modality of humanitarian context-specific pre-disaster preparedness-centric financing (cash, in-kind) supports for getting the most vulnerable community prepared for the whole paradox of climate crises.

 The broader spectrum of the Mongolian climate risk paradox is highly multi-dimensional and need inclusive participation of the climate frontline community, stakeholders, government, state  and non-state actors, banking sector, green development programming authority, financiers, credit operators, insurer, etc., from risk assessment to intervention design and financial inclusion to the whole climate crisis value chain process. To address the challenges of the risk financing instrument being mechanized as meeting the demand-driven risk financing service deliveries from specialized weather and climate information services deliveries, advisories for the sector, and elements.

 An ICT-driven integrated IBF-based weather and climate risk-information services intended as primary inputs for devising a well concerted FBF process and inclusive participated( stakeholders )  an integrated forecast-based early action planning and corresponding financing strategies.  The new integrated IBF and corresponding FBF methodology are intended to function multi-dimensionally and coherently so that every weather/climate-induced critical response are well addressed. The dashboard-based informed tools can readily be accessed, and a quick-time-around integrated decision can be made from ICT system dashboard. The dashboard-driven online FBF decision support system to be able to facilitate the sectoral climate risk finances and the system will be able to provide a tangible solution to the climate risk financing decision-making process.

Figure 4: Coordinated Crisis Response Financing Mechanism. 

4.1   FBF framework approach

1. The methodology and approaches of FBF are intended instrumentalized in such a way that it would be able to bridge the information and decision-supporting tools barrier gaps and inform a multi-dimensional and inclusive risk financing mechanism to mobilize finances before the climate crises are likely to impending over the ground.
2. Strategize IBF-supported FBF informed dashboard for comprehensive informed risk reduction action planning and budgeting and risk finance mobilization decision making.  
3. Partnership approach for enabling actors/stakeholders (state, non-state) on evidence-based strong advocacy and bargaining power for mobilizing finances for the impactful of impending extreme and hazardous weather events are likely to do the loss and damages of the frontline vulnerable community, sector & elements, critical infrastructures, and basic services.
4. IBF integrated FBF platform to interplay amongst the stakeholders, risk financiers, the humanitarian community, Humanitarian Country Team (HCT), and sector departments with giving an anticipatory and presumptive impression about the possible loss and damages are likely over the types of elements at the last mile.
5. Impact-based forecast (IBF) driven FBF tools, early action planning, developing/mounting contingencies and corresponding allocatable amount of risk finances targeting the size of responses, type of response, target vulnerable group, etc., are required for the instrumentalizing humanitarian program & response cycle and people in need.
6. Informed tools for building partnership and consensus of humanitarian response in a 5W manner.
7. Nexus building for stronger humanitarian partners, stakeholders, actors, and public-private partnerships for on disaster risk financing,  risk /vulnerable-centric international cooperation to support disaster preparedness and prevention. FBF play an important role by harnessing the full potential of government fiscal mobilization and supporting their national capacities in disaster risk management and in improving the social, health, and economic well-being of individuals, communities, and countries.
8. Flagging recurrently occurrence and indicative climate risk drivers, triggers for addressing and mechanizing risk financing within integrated IBF & FBF system.
9. Methodological, tools, and capacity enhancement approach of IBF-driven strategy for disaster risk management.
10. Optimization of coherence of resource allocation based on demand-driven contingencies for hazard preparedness.
11. Enhance government capacity for grand bargaining, policy & advocacy for mobilization of climate risk finances, developing coordination and partnership mechanisms from pre-disaster preparedness to post-disaster response, rehabilitation, and building-back-better mechanisms. Enhance resilient capacity by timely mobilizing risk finances, resources, and implementation of interventions.   

Figure 5: Integrated IFB and FBF approach

4.2   IBF integrated FBF for removing  barriers on meteorological  information services and informed tools: 

• Deploying integrated IBF, multi-hazard early warning systems and alerting (CAP) to robustly inform the humanitarian program cycle, vulnerable sector departments, local government actors/stakeholders, etc., so that it can inform stakeholders about the type of response ( finances, relief, in-kind support, etc)  and resources are essentially required to mobilize over to the hotspot on the ahead extreme weather events induced multi-hazards are likely to impend.
• Tools and evidence-based support for inclusively planning SOD, SOP (5W)  for optimization of interventions, optimal utilization of humanitarian responses, avoiding repetition,  overlapping, and ensuring every area are intervened.
• Integrated IBF platform to support the sector/department wise  Information management Systems (IMS) to anchor  with IBF risk repository ( Risk and vulnerability ranks of the elements, sectors, administrative areas e.g  bag, soum, aimag), and back-to-back stakeholder accessing to up-to-date impact forecasts, situation updates on current loss and damage types &  figures, people in needs ( PIN), etc.,  a clear picture of the situation and immediate requirements of resources to mobilize.
• The robust implementation of IBF and corresponding FBF for diagnosing, predicting, warning, and alerting different onset & type weather phenomena,  transforming to muti-hazard conditions, and disaster incidence would be an easy job.
• Structured and robust ICT system for quality IBF production, informed FBF tools for averting multi-hazard induced disaster risk and climate crises, etc., and for developing robust intervention planning, inclusive budgeting, action planning, project implementation,  M & E, and result reporting.

4.3   IBF integrated FBF approach for DRR

1. Integrated IBF & corresponding FBF tools for mainstreaming climate risk financing, humanitarian response planning for better progress, and response addressing multi-hazards.
2. Mainstreaming evidence-based and risk-informed bottom-up (bag level to aimag and central level) and top-down development planning for DRR, CCA, and resilient interventions.
3. Informing humanitarian program cycle, climate risk management program cycles, and climate and multi-hazard risk financiers about the immediate humanitarian needs, priorities, and resource mobilization for enabling coping capacity of the frontline community, sectors, and elements.
4. Develop integrated partnership development in risk-financing, stakeholder engagement with the humanitarian actions, sector preparedness, and localization of NAP, NDC, green development  and NAMA with win-win contributing (development and resilience building ).
5. Exclusively support the formulation of policy, strategies, project design, action planning, inclusive financing, and budgeting framework. Enabling service delivery capacity to identify needs and priorities and recognize barriers, screening policy mix, and sources of financing, including the private sector.
6. Enhance stakeholders’ capacity to access finance, blend and combine finance on a public-private partnership basis.
7. Optimization of risk-financing mechanism over better management, audit, and monitoring competencies, the harmonizing capacity of performance-based grant mobilizations for the better performer( stakeholders including vulnerable herders and community).

4.4   FBF risk consideration approach & Readiness for  Climate Risk Finance Mobilization

IFB & corresponding FBF strategy supports the governments and stakeholders in getting ready with pieces of advice strategies, informed tools for plannings for harmonizing for preparedness for impending hazards and disasters, CCA & resilience building Finance. For risk & investment prioritization, and optimization purposes we need informed tools on different sets of risks and vulnerabilities and how to prioritize actions. The following diagram shows the bottom-up approach of selecting risk drivers for the prioritization of risks for financing and interventions.    

1. Forecast-based risk Consideration Process & financing modality:

Figure 6 : Forecast based risk Consideration Process & financing modality

The methodological approach for determining the climate crises  for ex-ante and ex-post financing modality. The risk financing paradigm splits into three segments, a) Financing for preparedness for impending sudden onset extreme weather events and hazards, b) medium onset hazards, and c)  slow onset hazards. The Green and yellow shaded sector intervention and finances can be met by ex-ante financing modality, and  Pink color shaded impending sudden onset hazardous weather-induced risk and warnings for the elements can be met by ex-post financing modality.

1. Arranging Ex-ante financing  :

• Ex-ante (Latin term) intervention “before the event,” and it refers to the estimated return on investment. For example, addressing the combined dzud factors, we need to invest in better preparedness and resilience building by investing for incentivizing herders/farmers the forage crop cultivation, irrigation facilities for reducing migration and overgrazing, climate-proof and modular animal shelters and hay storage facilities to combat severe extreme dzud events.
• Installation of Water access points for the herders for reducing migration to access drinking water for the animals.
• Ex-ante finances for sustainable crop agriculture, agroforestry for food security, green shed structures for round-year agriculture, and green development.
• Infrastructure development for rainwater harvesting and retention, artificial irrigation/drip irrigation for cover cropping for soil health improvements, and drainage facilities for irrigation.
• Investment in upgrading to hybrid weather observations for improving weather prediction, and assessment of the risk of high-value elements(urban settlements, agricultural lands, fodder crop areas, industry/mining areas, etc. )
• Agro-forestry, social forestry development, cover cropping for soil health improvements, homestead based agriculture development
• -Improvement of crop-agricultural and livestock value chain
• Improvement of surface water management, water harvesting and retention  

• Mobilization  of the Ex-post financing: 

This financing functions to mobilize finances while impending hazardous events are being forecasted and necessary preparedness can be undertaken early to minimize the L & D. Ex-post finances need to be timely mobilized while the impending rapid onset disasters are being forecast at precision level with IBF tools and anticipatory loss and damage is predicted timely and letting humanitarian actors a lead time for preparedness and response.

IBF integrated FBF dashboard to be designed to alert weather emergencies such as convective heavy rainfall, heavy rainfall, severe flash floods, snowstorms, tornadoes,  thunderstorms, cold/warm-front induced sudden onset storms, etc.,  are likely to be impending, anticipatory loss & damage are being estimated, in this situation, ex-post financing mobilization  in-time would be imperative for the preparedness the climate frontline community and reducing the huge human and livestock tolls.

Ex-post financing for emergency management.

• Track-fund allocations for mobilizing soon after the disaster happens for operationalizing the emergency response and rehabilitation.
• Emergency supplies for lifesaving.

5.0   Methodology for Developing  Early Action Protocol   ( EAP)

Early action protocol (EAP ) is required to define the real-time impact of the forecasts ( for different onset), a  critical lead-time for informing more nimble and timely decisions on preventative action. Developing an EAP is the most critical job in which a lot of indicators and factors are needed for EAP workstream development. To reduce the impact of these extreme events of cold waves/snowfall on the population, the Early Action Protocol was first time used for forecast-based financing to support herder families in the high Andes region of Peru.

The EAP foresees a timely and effective implementation of early actions as soon as weather forecasts are combined with other risk datasets and indicates a high probability of hazardous events are likely to impend and severely impact people, their assets, and their livelihoods.

The simplified Early Action Protocol (EAP) articulates a multi-stakeholder plan to trigger early actions in advance of a weather or non-weather-related hazard. The typical EAP articulates how to utilize the disaster emergency fast-track fund/budget to deal with impending hazards and  can meet purposes, to serve as a plan for the early actions (when action will take place, what actions will be undertaken, and how much funding will be needed) and outlined action plans for pre-agreed funding from forecast-based action for supporting disaster emergency relief operations.

The simplified EAP is an additional ex-ante funding mechanism for humanitarian stakeholders to complement the existing funding mechanisms including the ‘longer term’ EAPs (i.e., five years) and ‘shorter term’ DREF for imminent events(i.e., 1 to 4 months). The simplified EAP does not aim to replace the full EAP but would rather become a complementary ‘medium term’ (i.e., two years) funding alternative.

An IBF integrated Forecast-based Financing (FBF) remains the most complete methodology to conduct anticipatory action planning and capacity strengthening. It is the robust methodology developed for mobilizing the  Disaster Response Emergency Fund (DREF) to innovate and introduce more flexible approaches to conduct early actions.

5.1 Define  types of EAP and Functions:

The given context of climate change’s impact, weather regime, nature of impending extreme weather events, hazardous  weather events turning to multi-hazards and multi-hazard induced disaster and landscape vulnerabilities, etc., encompasses wider anomalies,  reiterative, recurrent, incremental, short-lived, and different onset natures. Considering the nature of impending types of weather events, the EAP varies accordingly.

a) EAP for addressing rapid onset extreme  weather events ( Convective heavy rainfall, flash flooding, thunderstorm, snowstorm, warm front, cold front, damaging winds, etc.) Lead time: 15 minutes to an hour(s)

Considerations :

• Impact-based Forecast (IBF ): A short lead-time to detect impending rapid onset weather conditions by running a statistical & dynamical downscaling model, customized nowcasting algorithm (programmed model)  for tracking & predicting particular hazardous  events, preparing operational IBF, special weather warning, alerts ( for hotspot), preparing warnings to formulate  preliminary early actions,
• IBF : The primary IBF tools to delineate the impact areas of the extent disseminated through the IBF geospatial platform soon after the forecast is issued.
  • Extremely high -Magenta-coded alerts   
  • Very high- red  coded  alerts,        
  • Moderate to high  – orange coded  alerts,      
  • Medium to moderate   – yellow coded   alerts  
• Integrated IBF & FBF : Active quick onset weather warning by using national broadcast media, and in the web-based geospatial platform with warning /watch maps so that the issues can be disseminated  to  the remote vulnerable areas ( over electric mass media), frontlines to early warned about the impending hazards, and undertake preparedness, pre-positioning response items over the lead-time from  15 minutes to an hour(s)
• IBF/FBF technical partners to define early actions: How to respond in a short lead-time before impeding,  how to capture live news/events/weather conditions by using IBF hybrid( crowdsource ) observation system.
• Who will be the primary responder according to SoD and SOP  : EOC of aimag to remain alerted for providing updates,  Local governments to engage stakeholders with defined 5W SOP and deploying and activating team  for emergency supports ( Local government field level technical experts/actors,   herders, community, disaster emergency management  volunteers   )
• Integrated IBF & FBF :Where will be the service trigger points, pre-positioning the relief items ,  What type of response is required with background checking of similar earlier events.
• IFB immediate functionaries: quickly assess the level of the impact with spatiotemporal level, immediately assuming the anticipatory L & D, propose actions, organize live radio shows for timely and wider dissemination, capturing event situations, ongoing L & D figures ( so that post-disaster trauma, L & D can be well captured, planed and enough evidence for developing EAP for a flash appeal.
• SEC / UN-HCT to timely propagate flash-appeal based on scalability, intensity, and extendibility, damaging pattern prepared by the IBF and FBF team.
• Early warning-based early action plans – so that disaster emergency funding is timely and effectively utilized.
• IBF & FBF team to develop event situation report over the ongoing events.  Geospatial IBF platform to capture live actions, L & D figures, picture/video of from the ground, the live radio show from assessing impact so quickly, and event situation reporting ( aimag EOC ) on the fly.

• EAP for medium onset  and combined weather factors for example extreme cold temperature,  Severe winter conditions, strong winds, damaging winds, season-specific incidence of dzud, flash-drought )  lead-time ( 6-12 hours to daily/weekly)

Considerations:

• IBF Preparations: Statistical and dynamical downscaling Model analysis, detect impending extreme weather conditions by running forecasting model, conducting dynamical downscaling for tracking & predicting hazardous events, operational forecasts on watch and warning.   
• Disseminate IBF: Prepare combined IBF forecasts from multiple sources, e.g. NWP analytics, down-scale models, high-resolution gridded forecasts, routinely issued operational forecasts for the vulnerable sectors/high-value elements, etc. 
• The delineating impact area of the extent with the geospatial platform soon after the forecast is issued anticipatory calculations and estimates the level of the impact by analyzing elements falling under each threshold. 
  • Extremely high -Magenta-coded alerts   
  • Very high- red  coded  alerts,        
  • Moderate to high  – orange coded  alerts,      
  • Medium to moderate   – yellow coded   alerts  
• IBF & FBF: Activate weather warnings dissemination protocol by using national broadcast media(Radio/TV), the web-based geospatial platform with warning /watch maps so that the issues can be disseminated to the remote vulnerable areas ( over electric mass media)  undertake preparedness, pre-positioning response items early over the lead-time.
• IBF/FBF technical partners to define early actions: How to respond early over the lead-time before hazard impend,  how to capture live news/events/weather conditions by using the IBF hybrid( crowdsource ) observation system.
• Who will be the primary responder according to SoD and SOP: EOC of aimag to remain alerted for providing updates,  Local governments to engage stakeholders with defined 5W SOP and deploying and activating team  for emergency supports ( Local government field level technical experts/actors,   herders, community, disaster emergency management  volunteers   )
• IBF/FBF: What type of response will be required to respond to the situation: Defining contingency for the whole preparedness and response.
• Develop sector-specific contingency plan: Sector departments to prepare their contingency plan by using IBF risk repository informed tools, risk atlas, sectoral information management system, defining risk raking of the elements, estimating finances required for the preparedness, response, etc.
• SEC / UN-HCT to timely propagate flash-appeal for the funds based on scalability, intensity, and extendibility, the damaging pattern of impending hazards forecasted by the IBF and FBF team.
• Early warning-based early action plans – so that disaster emergency funding is timely and effectively utilized.
• IBF & FBF team to develop event situation report over the ongoing events( Geospatial IBF platform to capture live actions, L & D figures, picture/video of from the ground, the live radio show from assessing impact so quickly and event situation reporting ( aimag EOC ) on the fly.

• EAP for slow onset( prolonged)  and combined weather factors, for example, droughts( meteorological, hydrological, agricultural)  and desertification, season-specific dzuds and combined dzud,  degradation of soil health, etc., Lead-time ( monthly, seasonal, yearly, 10-30 years)

Considerations:

• IBF Preparations:
• 1) Develop a standard operating system( SOP) and organize a  team(s)  dealing with the whole observed datasets. For example, data calibration assimilation, the process of datasets from hybrid ( robust observation mechanism ) observation systems ( with station observed datasets). The team prepares, customizes, and outlook products on a daily, weekly, decadal, bi-monthly, monthly, seasonal, and yearly basis. Prepares indicators/indices, and modeling ( statistical ) for analyzing every parameter, and prepares a comprehensive outlook with every parameter distribution over GIS maps.
• 2) This repository essentially being required for the  IBF & FBF team, SEC, and other key stakeholders can access Mongolian weather patterns, climate patterns, trends of every weather event, customized observed outlook for the sectors, high-value elements, livestock and livelihoods, and value chain operators.
• 3) This huge repository is essential for the sector and element-specific risk, exposure, vulnerability assessment, forecast verification, and re-analysis of the forecast model.
• 4) This repository widely supports the assessment of multi-hazard risks.
• 5) A complete set of a weather information repository, maps, and informed tools heavily input device for the multi-sectoral planning; a)  NAP sectors sustainable agricultural planning crop agriculture planning, livestock husbandry planning, integrated water resource management, sustainable soil &  land management, sustainable environmental planning, biomass/pasture, sustainable rangeland management, forest management, drought, and desertification management), b) informed tools for NAP sector planning and localization, NDC planning and localization ( solar PV project, wind power generations, biomass power, mini,/micro/large hydro projects, NetZero programming, GHG reduction.
• Develop algorithms, indicators, and indices and run the model for analyzing hazards, trends, recurrent phenomena, etc. 
• Prepare long-range forecasts  n hazards and trends.
• IBF: Prepare combined sector-specific IBF watch, and warning advisories for sectoral preparedness. Develop EAP for reducing risk and vulnerabilities.
• The delineating impact area of the extent with the geospatial platform after the forecast is issued calculates and estimates the level of the impact by analyzing elements falling under each threshold. 
  • High impact- red  coded  alerts,        
  • Moderate – orange coded  alerts,      
  • Low/medium impact  – yellow coded   alerts  
• IBF & FBF: Activate weather warnings dissemination protocol by using the web-based geospatial platform with warning /watch / advisory maps so that the issues can be disseminated to the target audiences for informed planning and budgeting process.  
• Define the stakeholders, and actors mandated by  SoD and SOP: EOC of aimag develops IBF GIS  maps on aimag, soum, bag.
• IBF/FBF:  To develop EAP  with defining contingency for the sector preparedness, adaptation, and resilience building.
• Early warning-based early action plans – so that disaster emergency funding is timely and effectively utilized.
• IBF & FBF team to develop event situation reports over the ongoing events( Geospatial IBF platform to capture live actions, L & D figures, picture/video of from the ground, the live radio show from assessing impact so quickly and event situation reporting ( aimag EOC ).

5.2 Team composition for developing  EAP and early warning based early actions  :

The EAP responsibilities are entrusted to the experts of both the IBF and FBF team, the figure below shows the composition.

Figure 7: The operational strategy –EAP implementation.

1. Designated Stakeholders for EAP implementation    :
2. Aimag Governor
3. Soum Governor
4. Local Emergency  Management Agency (LEMA) of NEMA at aimag/soum level (NEMA Emergency Management Team)
5. UN OCHA/HCT/UN Clusters
6. Mongolian Red Cross Society (MRCS) – EOC
7. Sector Department at  aimag /soum level  
8. NAMEM IBF designated the Technical Working Groups (TWG) at HQ level
9. NAMEM Aimag EOC, Local Governments at the local level( Aimag, Soum, Bag)
10. Sector Department 
11. Stakeholders, Value chain Operators, and Logistic Operators at the Local level

5.3  Steps of Developing EAP

Step 1:  Complete risk Baseline risk and vulnerability analysis.

• Develop a detailed repository of elements, sectors, livelihoods, livestock herding area-wise risk, vulnerability, exposure, and sensitivity risk ranking.( Articulated in IFB methodology )
• Identify the major hazards with ranking in terms of L & D, tolls, frequency, intensity, and magnitude.   
• Detailed atlas ( bag, soum, aimag) with indicators and Selection of hazards are recurrent (dzud, drought, floods, snowstorm, etc.). Risk, vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity Analysis of the priority sectors ( livestock and crop agriculture, water, land & soil ). Detailed atlas preparation( Physical, geographical, socioeconomic, and, copping capacity) :
• Develop Standard Operating Procedures (Sop) on humanitarian risk management, and climate risk management for local governments.
• Develop Standing orders on disaster (SoD), actors/stakeholders for managing disaster emergencies at the local level.
• Review Risk-informed LDP & budgeting of local governments, ongoing interventions
• Review Value chain operations of the service sectors

Figure 8: Local Government FBF decision  support system

Step 2: Review impact forecasts / different-term operational Forecasts (IBF)  

Review the IBF and analyze the risk of impending hazards, where it will be likely, and how many elements are likely to impact with a lead time of 12 or 24 hours. Estimate impacts over the elements falling under the severity of thresholds, calculate risk with impending nature, and persistent risk and vulnerabilities.

Step 3: Define impact level by the impending extreme weather events induced hazard(s)

• From the above menu summarize the Risk ranking of the elements  and define the intervention type
• Duration of support required.

Step 3 : Analyze the IBF anticipatory advisory on loss and damage.

This is the teamwork of IBF TWG over the geospatial platform ( sitting at their desk) and analysis of forecast impacts. However, this is the primary input for the EAP to have a precision level IBF and anticipatory L & D scenario.

The hypothesis of impact estimation;

Impact estimation = Overlay  Impact forecast color-coded threshold of impending extreme weather events  over the geographical areas + calculate  Baseline physical elements (Annexure 1 of IBF) and their  Risk & Vulnerability Ranks + Calculate socioeconomic  Risk & Vulnerability and Ranks – coping capacity = estimated risk and vulnerability elements, geographical areas, and severity

Step 4: Develop anticipatory L & D scenario :

1. Based on the hypotheses, calculate a checklist of impacts level, and severity index for the elements likely to be impacted, and damaged. A detailed checklist of how many elements is at very high, high, moderate & low risks, vulnerable, exposed, sensitive to hazards, etc.
2. Based on the software, an Excel sheet calculate the detailed L & D scenarios
3. Calculating financial, and physical loss & Damage and the size of investment is required for preparedness and withstanding capacity, reducing risk, vulnerability, exposure, and sensitivity.

Table :  elements impact analysis. 

Step 5: Develop a Contingency  Plan

• Formulation of SOP with 5W activities 
• Required resources for saving lives and properties.
• Detailing people in need (PIN) and priorities intervention for the high-risk ranking elements
• Rapid Funding mechanisms and probable sources to meet ,e.g., internal ( local governments, central government ) and external.
• Risk-based intervention allocation etc.

Step 6: Select early actions

Based on the category, type, impeding nature( Raid onset, medium onset, slow onset), intensity, magnitude, scalability, and duration to dissipate, the EAP team needs to develop early action plans for the whole cycle of risk management. Prepare risk category-wise investment menu, types of intervention ( cash, in-kind, logistic, relief, etc) to be required for, executing group/stakeholders/partners of 5W action plan modality, etc.

Step 7: Define the intervention  process

• Define intervention based on the threshold and impact intensity of the impending extreme weather events. Following  the 5W process for involving the actors. 
• Define activities, budgets, and probable  funding sources.
• Develop M&E plan while intervention is triggered to capture the progress to date.

Step 8:  Event situation reporting.

Defining event situation reporting process, and guidelines of utilizing IBF crowdsource networking and risk communication tools for updating situations with pictures, videos textual reporting, etc. so that IBF and FBF partners can get the updates through online integrated IBF and FBF platform.  

Step 9: EAP approval  and designation for risk  finances

The whole IBF and FBF process is intended to implement over the online integrated web portals & geospatial platforms for functioning the automated process. The FBF process leaders, co-leaders, key stakeholders, and local governments to jointly organize a consultation process online for reviewing, commenting, and finalization of the EAP and inclusive risk finance readily available to mobilize and additional finances required to implement to emergency humanitarian program for getting font-line better prepared for the impending hazards.

Step 10: Define activities  on how to conduct constant Monitoring  forecasts and conduct humanitarian   actions accordingly

The functional humanitarian focal agencies (NEMA, MRCS, HCT, UN clusters, I-NGOs) are to be guided by the EAP and conduct humanitarian action accordingly.  After EAP is approved and all the agreements are in place, ensure that the relevant stakeholders are ready to activate, preposition the relief /items for distribution, carry out necessary training, and ensure financial and logistical arrangements are in place and roles and responsibilities are well understood by the actors engaged.

Define the monitoring & evaluation process of the forecast updates (IBF and operational IBF, warning, watch, alerts ), which would be functioned by the IBF and FBF platform.

Step 11: Revise/re-submit FBF risk financing proposal.

The FBF focal points, and key stakeholders to review EAP by organizing an online consultation process, the draft  EAP would be uploaded to IBF & FBF online platform for the re-validation and approval of a quick-time-around process starting the humanitarian program.

5.4 Developing  EAP for managing season-specific and combined  dzud risks

Figure 8: EAP for dzuds to enhance resilient capacity by timely mobilizing risk finances, resources, and  implementation of interventions   

6.0  Early Warning and Early Action for the rapid onset events

The precision level impact forecasting of rapid onset extreme weather events (snowstorms, blizzards, convective early rainfall, thunderstorms, cold and warm front induced storms) is a challenging job, but this is the most urgent and prioritized issue for the timely prediction of Mongolian sudden onset hazardous events. In the IBF observation system proposed a hybrid system so that those events could be well detected and forecasted.

The IBF & FBF online platform needs to be established to timely forecast and estimation of the impacts before developing an early warning-based early action plan. 

6.1  Early Warning and Early Action :

Step 1: Analyzing the colored coded threshold impacts snowstorms, blizzards, convective heavy rainfalls, thunderstorms, hailstorms, flash flooding to the urban settlements, and cold and warm front induced storm, we need to consider at least 3 provinces are falling under high-risk areas and at least 20% areas under red alerts.

Step 2: Conduct an anticipatory estimation of the elements that are likely to do the damage, death tolls of humans, and animals are highly likely.

Step 3: Develop immediate and early action plans for saving lives and properties.

Step 4: Prioritize FBF actions and instantly develop contingency and a 5W plan for the immediately starting interventions.

Step 5: Design a response plan with the components that need to be in place to deliver appropriate early actions based on a timely early warning.

The below diagram shows the linear workflow of an early warning-based early action plan which is to be led by national and/or local governments, where humanitarian and development partners come together to provide the necessary support capacity building. The components are:

6.2     Developing Forecast based early Action :

Menu of the triggers Showing forecasts of different timelines and their probability levels

6.3  Anticipatory Actions for Copping the Rapid Onset Hazards.     

6.3  Anticipatory Actions for Copping the Rapid Onset Hazards.     

Figure 9: Rapid onset hazardous events earning system under the IBF process to inform the FBF actions

7.0  FBF strategy development for the vulnerable sectors

7.1 :  IBF integrated  informed FBF tool supporting  long-term planning

Source: Government Planning Documents  [1]

 IBF and FBF tools to inform government policy planning, strategy development, and project design process.

• Government planning desk to access IBF and FBF tools for getting informed about persistent risks and vulnerabilities while developing risk-informed sectoral development plans and budgets annually.
• Access IBF and corresponding FBF through the online platform for support SEC, NEMA, and sector departments for EAP  planning, providing informed decisions for different onset hazard risk financing.

Table: Inputs by the sector departments for  EAP and action planning for the FBF process.  

7.2 IBF & FBF for  tools for supporting   National and Local Government risk-informed Development planning ( aimag, soum, bag)

[1]  www.cabinet.gov.mn ,

https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/d8files/event-documents/Mongolia%20-%20Climate%20Change%20and%20Disaster%20Risk%20Profile.pdf , https://www.adaptation-undp.org/mongolia-achieves-milestone-national-adaptation-planning, https://cabinet.gov.mn/wp-content/uploads/2050_VISION_LONG-TERM-DEVELOPMENT-POLICY.pdf

[2] https://e-mongolia.mn/home

[3] https://mn-prism-mng.web.app

[4] https://nlis-2.mofa.gov.mn/login

[5] https://livestock.mofa.gov.mn/login

[6] https://herd.mofa.gov.mn/login

[7] http://fodder.mofa.gov.mn

[8] https://muz.gov.mn

[9] http://fodder.mofa.gov.mn

[10] https://nlis-2.mofa.gov.mn/login

[11] https://livestock.mofa.gov.mn/login

[12] https://herd.mofa.gov.mn/login

[13] http://fodder.mofa.gov.mn

[14] https://muz.gov.mn

[15] http://fodder.mofa.gov.mn

[16] https://muz.gov.mn

[17] https://mn-prism-mng.web.app ,

[18] https://nlis-2.mofa.gov.mn/login

[19] https://livestock.mofa.gov.mn/login

[20] https://eic.mn

[21] https://muz.gov.mn

[22] https://mn-prism-mng.web.app

[23] https://nlis-2.mofa.gov.mn/login

[24] https://livestock.mofa.gov.mn/login

[25] https://herd.mofa.gov.mn/login

[26] http://fodder.mofa.gov.mn

[27] https://muz.gov.mn

[28] https://eic.mn

[29] https://eic.mn

[30] Approval of the Action Plan of the Government of Mongolia for 2020-2024.  https://cabinet.gov.mn/wp-content/uploads/2020-2024_-ActionPlan_GOM_Eng_Edited_OE-2.pdf

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