Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Tunisia

Tunisia is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its arid and semi-arid climate, severe water scarcity, dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture, coastal concentration of people and economic assets, exposure to droughts and floods, and increasing pressure on land, water, ecosystems, and infrastructure. The World Bank identifies water scarcity, coastal erosion, and escalating flood risk as Tunisia’s core climate and development challenges. (World Bank)

Tunisia is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its dry climate, severe water scarcity, dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture, coastal concentration of population and economic assets, and exposure to droughts, floods, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, heatwaves, desertification, and salinity intrusion. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, declining rainfall, more frequent droughts, extreme rainfall events, coastal inundation, groundwater stress, agricultural losses, and growing pressure on food security, tourism, infrastructure, health, ecosystems, and vulnerable communities. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, drought and flood forecasting, integrated water-resource management, climate-resilient agriculture, coastal-zone protection, urban drainage, ecosystem-based adaptation, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation is essential to reduce losses and protect Tunisia’s development gains.

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Tunisia’s key climate and disaster risks include drought, water scarcity, flooding, flash floods, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, heat stress, desertification, wildfires, salinity intrusion, and agricultural production shocks. Tunisia is located in one of the world’s water-scarce and dry regions and is highly dependent on climate-sensitive agriculture; a large share of its population and economic activity is also located in low-lying and flood-prone coastal zones. (Green Climate Fund)

By 2050, climate projections for Tunisia indicate temperature increases of 1.6°C to 2.7°C, precipitation reductions of 10% to 30%, sea-level rise of 15–18 cm, and worsening extreme events, especially floods and droughts. (Green Climate Fund)

2. Water scarcity and drought vulnerability

Water scarcity is Tunisia’s most critical climate risk. Climate change is expected to worsen existing water stress, with cascading impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, food security, cities, industry, tourism, public health, and social stability. The World Bank CCDR states that Tunisia’s water scarcity situation is likely to deteriorate as climate change progresses, with particularly severe consequences for agriculture and rural areas. (World Bank)

Drought is no longer only an occasional shock for Tunisia; it is becoming a structural development constraint. Recent drought conditions have already led to water rationing and pressure on drinking-water systems, while future precipitation decline and higher temperatures are expected to increase irrigation demand, reduce recharge, stress reservoirs, and increase competition among agriculture, households, tourism, industry, and ecosystems. (World Bank)

3. Coastal erosion, sea-level rise, and flood risk

Tunisia’s coastline is highly exposed to sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge, coastal flooding, and permanent submersion of low-lying areas. The World Bank CCDR reports that 0.4% of Tunisia’s total land area, including 24% of its linear coastal distance, could be affected by sea-level rise by 2050 under SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios. It also estimates that climate change-induced erosion and submersion could cause land losses of around US$1.5–1.6 billion by 2050 without strong coastal adaptation. (World Bank)

Coastal risk is especially important because Tunisia’s coast hosts a major share of population, tourism infrastructure, ports, roads, industry, urban development, fisheries, wetlands, and agricultural land. The World Bank estimates that, without adaptation to protect coastal tourism zones, direct and indirect costs of sea-level rise could reach up to 6.9% of 2020 GDP by 2050. (World Bank)

4. Agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods

Agriculture is one of Tunisia’s most climate-sensitive sectors. Rainfall decline, drought, heat stress, groundwater depletion, soil salinization, desertification, pest pressure, and flood damage threaten crop yields, livestock systems, food security, and rural incomes. Tunisia’s adaptation planning explicitly identifies agriculture, tourism, coastal areas, and health as sensitive sectors requiring priority adaptation action. (Green Climate Fund)

Key agricultural risks include reduced water availability for irrigation, declining rainfed crop reliability, salinization of coastal and irrigated lands, reduced pasture productivity, heat stress on livestock, and increased vulnerability of smallholder farmers in dryland and interior regions.

5. Urban and infrastructure vulnerability

Urban areas, especially coastal cities and rapidly expanding settlements, face growing risks from flash flooding, drainage failure, heat stress, water shortages, coastal erosion, and infrastructure disruption. Tunis, Sfax, Sousse, Monastir, Gabès, Bizerte, Nabeul, Hammamet, and other coastal or low-lying urban areas are particularly exposed to compound coastal, flood, heat, and water-security risks.

Flood risk is likely to increase as precipitation becomes more variable. The World Bank CCDR notes that climate change could make catastrophic flood events more likely, with a present rare flood risk potentially becoming much more frequent under high-emissions scenarios. (World Bank)

6. Sector-specific vulnerability summary

7. Social vulnerability

The most vulnerable groups include smallholder farmers, rural households in arid and semi-arid regions, low-income urban residents, informal settlers, coastal communities, women-headed households, youth, older persons, people with disabilities, agricultural workers, fishers, and communities dependent on climate-sensitive livelihoods.

Vulnerability is highest in areas where climate exposure overlaps with poverty, unemployment, weak infrastructure, limited access to water, low insurance coverage, degraded land, and limited capacity to recover after repeated droughts or floods.

8. Priority resilience needs

Tunisia’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, drought monitoring, flood forecasting, coastal inundation warning, integrated water-resource management, groundwater regulation, climate-resilient agriculture, desalination where economically viable, water reuse, coastal-zone management, ecosystem-based adaptation, urban drainage improvement, heat-health planning, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation.

A practical resilience package should include: