The latest WMO Update, issued on 3 September 2026, reports an exceptionally high likelihood, close to 100 percent, that El Niño will persist through the September-November 2026 and December 2026-February 2027 seasons. This is the first time a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has expressed such a high degree of confidence.

El Niño is now firmly established in the tropical Pacific. Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are well above average and continuing to rise. Subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8°C above normal in some areas during July and early August, creating a large reservoir of warm water that may support further intensification.

WMO forecasts indicate that El Niño will strengthen further, reach very strong intensity and peak toward the end of 2026. If the current trajectory continues, the event could rank among the strongest observed in the modern monitoring era. However, the strength of an El Niño event does not automatically determine the severity of impacts in every location. Regional consequences depend on timing, geography, interactions with other climate drivers, exposure, vulnerability and preparedness.

The impacts may continue well into 2027, including through elevated global temperatures and major changes in rainfall patterns. The powerful 2023-2024 El Niño contributed to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record, alongside the continuing influence of human-induced climate change. WMO will continue monitoring global temperatures and related climate risks.

Why does this matter?

The term El Niño refers to the “Christ Child” or “boy child” in Spanish. Peruvian fishermen used the name because the warm ocean current often became noticeable around Christmas. The name may sound harmless, but the consequences of a strong El Niño can be serious.

El Niño can disrupt agriculture, food security, fisheries, health, energy, transport, water resources, trade, disaster management and global supply chains. It can alter the likelihood of drought, flooding, extreme heat, wildfire weather and tropical cyclone activity in different parts of the world. These impacts are not uniform, and some regions may experience wetter conditions while others face severe rainfall deficits.

Communities are already facing disruption from droughts, floods and extreme weather. As El Niño intensifies, existing risks may combine and cascade across sectors. A drought can affect food production, energy generation and water supplies at the same time. Flooding can damage transport networks, health facilities, homes and critical infrastructure.

This exceptional event demands exceptional preparation. Seasonal forecasts do not eliminate hazards, but they provide valuable lead time for governments, businesses, humanitarian organisations and communities to act before impacts become crises.

What are we doing?

WMO is undertaking an extensive mobilisation with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, which are responsible for delivering authoritative forecasts and warnings at national and local levels.

WMO is also working closely with partners throughout the United Nations and humanitarian system. For the 2026-2027 El Niño episode, WMO is part of a core United Nations team with the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Food and Agriculture Organization, working with UN Country Teams to manage risks and identify opportunities to strengthen resilience. The WMO Coordination Mechanism is providing tailored weather, climate and water expertise to humanitarian partners.

This work is aligned with the Early Warnings for All initiative, led by WMO and UNDRR with support from the International Telecommunication Union and the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. FAO contributes expertise on agricultural resilience, food security and anticipatory action.

The priority is to translate forecasts into decisions. This means strengthening impact-based forecasting, pre-agreed early-action triggers, anticipatory financing, drought and flood contingency plans, heat-health measures, protection for livestock and crops, resilient infrastructure, and clear last-mile communication that reaches vulnerable communities.

Coordination and sustained political commitment are essential.

In Africa, the African Union has called for a collective response, and preparedness for El Niño is a focus of the Africa Early Warnings Forum in Addis Ababa. The Tanzania Meteorological Agency has launched a nationwide awareness campaign reaching agriculture and food-security institutions, railways and roads, disaster managers and the public.

Across Latin America and the Caribbean, United Nations partners are implementing preparedness and anticipatory-action plans in countries that have historically experienced severe El Niño impacts. These measures include cash assistance, drought- and flood-resistant seeds, livestock protection and flood-control measures. Panama has declared a national state of emergency and introduced preventive measures, while the Panama Canal Authority is implementing water-saving operations. Peru has declared a state of emergency across large areas affected by flooding and landslides.

In Asia, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services are advising decision-makers about the risk of below-normal rainfall. India has convened an inter-ministerial review involving agriculture, health, water, power and economic agencies. Singapore is strengthening protection against extreme heat through worker-safety measures and a national heatwave response plan. Pacific island countries are preparing for the possibility of an above-average tropical cyclone season.

These examples demonstrate that early warning becomes effective only when it is connected to financing, operational plans, accountable institutions and trusted communication. Forecasts must reach the people and sectors that need them, and they must trigger action before losses occur.

WMO will continue sharing scientific updates and examples of proactive planning in the weeks and months ahead. El Niño does not have to become a disaster. The world has the forecasts, knowledge and tools to reduce risks, protect lives and safeguard livelihoods. The task now is to act early, coordinate across institutions and ensure that no country or community is left behind.