Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its arid and semi-arid climate, severe water scarcity, vast desert landscapes, dependence on the Amu Darya River and Karakum Canal, irrigation-based agriculture, transboundary water pressures, extreme heat, land degradation, soil salinity, dust storms, earthquake-prone zones, and Caspian Sea coastal change. The country faces major risks from drought, heatwaves, declining water availability, high evaporation, desertification, pasture degradation, agricultural losses, flash floods, mudflows, earthquakes, respiratory and heat-related health impacts, and disruption to water, food, infrastructure, and ecosystem systems. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, higher water demand, reduced summer and autumn river flows, increased evaporation from reservoirs and canals, worsening salinity, more severe heat stress, increased flood and mudflow risks from intense rainfall, and growing pressure on rural livelihoods, urban infrastructure, public health, and vulnerable desert and water-stressed communities. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, drought and heat monitoring, water security, irrigation modernization, transboundary water cooperation, salinity control, climate-resilient agriculture, dust-storm preparedness, earthquake-safe infrastructure, Caspian coastal monitoring, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation is essential to reduce losses and protect Turkmenistan’s development gains.

Turkmenistan is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks because of its arid and semi-arid climate, vast desert landscapes, severe water scarcity, dependence on irrigation, exposure to extreme heat and drought, land degradation, dust and sandstorms, earthquake-prone zones, flash-flood and mudflow risks near mountain and urban areas, and exposure of Caspian Sea coastal assets to changing sea levels. IWMI identifies Turkmenistan as the most water-stressed country in Central Asia, with heavy dependence on irrigation and mounting water challenges driven by inefficient water use, aging infrastructure, and climate change. (IWMI)

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Turkmenistan’s main climate and disaster risks include drought, extreme heat, water scarcity, desertification, land degradation, soil salinity, dust storms, flash floods, mudflows, earthquakes, and Caspian Sea coastal change. The national disaster-risk profile states that Turkmenistan’s population and economy are exposed to earthquakes and floods, with earthquakes posing the greater high-impact but lower-probability risk. (PreventionWeb)

The risk profile varies by location. Dashoguz and northern agricultural areas are highly exposed to water scarcity, irrigation losses, salinity, dust, and Aral Sea–related environmental stress. Lebap and Mary are closely tied to Amu Darya and Karakum Canal water availability. Ashgabat and the Kopet Dag foothills face earthquakes, extreme heat, drought, flash floods, mudflows, and urban infrastructure exposure; UNDP’s 2026 Ashgabat Risk Profile identifies earthquakes, mudflows, drought, and extreme heat as key hazards for the capital. (UNDP)

2. Climate change as a risk multiplier

Climate change is a major development risk for Turkmenistan because it directly affects the water-agriculture-health nexus. UNDP notes that Turkmenistan is vulnerable to climate change because of moisture deficiency, with droughts and higher temperatures limiting water development, agriculture, and forestry. It also highlights that rivers are vital for irrigation but unevenly distributed, creating shortages especially in the south and west. (Adaptation UNDP)

Turkmenistan’s revised NDC identifies adaptation priorities in health, agriculture, water, soil and land, forestry, and ecosystems, and proposes a unified methodology for climate-risk assessment and adaptation planning at different levels. (PreventionWeb) The national adaptation planning process also focuses heavily on strengthening climate-risk governance and the evidence base for water-sector adaptation, including in Ashgabat and Dashoguz. (Adaptation UNDP)

General geological map of Turkmenistan, compiled from small-scale maps provided by the Russian Geological Research Institute (VSEGEI) and available at One Geology Portal, integrated with geological data in Iran and ETM and Google EarthTM satellite images. Stars indicate features discussed in the text: 1: Gyeok Patlavuk mud volcano; 2: Monzhukly diapiric structure; 3: Cheleken Peninsula; 4: Kizilkaya erosional window; 5: Altyn Asyr Lake; 6: Uzboy River deflection; 7: lowest point in Turkmenistan (81 m b.s.l.); 8: Darvaza; 9: Neogene strata N of the Unguz fault; 10: dinosaur plateau; 11: Yeroylanduz depression. MCT: Main Turkmen Collector.

3. Water scarcity, Amu Darya dependence, and irrigation vulnerability

Water scarcity is Turkmenistan’s most strategic climate vulnerability. IWMI reports that Turkmenistan relies on the Amu Darya River for about 90% of its water, while the river is under stress from upstream withdrawals and declining flow. This creates major risks for agriculture, ecosystems, drinking water, and regional water cooperation. (IWMI)

UNDP’s 2024 policy brief highlights Turkmenistan’s reliance on external water sources and warns that climate risks include reduced water availability from shifting river discharge patterns, increased evaporation, upstream water use, land degradation, and soil salinity. (UNDP) Rising temperatures in the Amu Darya’s mountain catchments are expected to accelerate glacier melt and shift precipitation from snow to rain, increasing spring discharge but reducing water storage and decreasing summer and autumn flows when agricultural demand is highest. (UNDP)

4. Drought, extreme heat, and public-health vulnerability

Extreme heat and drought are central hazards in Turkmenistan’s arid climate. UNDP identifies droughts and higher temperatures as limiting factors for water development, agriculture, and forestry, while also noting that sharp temperature rises can create heat stress for the population. (Adaptation UNDP)

Heat risks are especially serious in Ashgabat, Dashoguz, Mary, Lebap, Balkan, and desert settlements, where high temperatures increase water demand, reduce labour productivity, worsen heat-related illness, and intensify pressure on energy and cooling systems. UNDP’s water-agriculture nexus assessment states that days above 30°C are an increasing concern for Dashoguz and Ashgabat because extreme heat can severely affect public health, agricultural productivity, and water demand. (UNDP)

5. Agriculture, livestock, and food-security vulnerability

Agriculture is highly climate-sensitive because it depends on irrigation, river flows, canal infrastructure, soil quality, and stable water allocation. The Adaptation Fund describes Turkmenistan as an arid country where climate change is projected to significantly affect water resources, with water availability likely to suffer from higher temperatures, climate aridification, and competition linked to transboundary water issues. (Adaptation Fund)

Dashoguz Province illustrates the broader agricultural vulnerability. UNDP reports that agriculture in Dashoguz is heavily dependent on irrigation; reduced water availability directly affects crop yields, while higher temperatures increase evaporation and reduce irrigation effectiveness. Intensive irrigation also contributes to soil salinity, requiring additional water for leaching. (UNDP)

6. Desertification, land degradation, salinity, and dust storms

Desertification and land degradation are major slow-onset risks. Turkmenistan’s vast desert landscapes, high evaporation, sparse vegetation, salinized soils, and heavy reliance on irrigation create strong exposure to soil degradation and rangeland stress. UNDP’s policy brief identifies land degradation and soil salinity as major climate-linked threats to water and agriculture, especially where irrigation losses, high evaporation, and sedimentation reduce system efficiency. (UNDP)

Dust and sandstorms are also important public-health and infrastructure hazards. UNDP notes that dust storms carry harmful particles into urban areas and can cause respiratory problems, while heatwaves, tropical nights, water-quality deterioration, and waterborne disease risks can increase pressure on the health system. (UNDP)

7. Flash floods, mudflows, and urban infrastructure vulnerability

Although drought dominates Turkmenistan’s climate-risk profile, intense rainfall can still trigger flash floods, mudflows, debris flows, and drainage failure, especially near the Kopet Dag Mountains, foothill settlements, roads, dry channels, and urban areas. UNDP’s Ashgabat profile identifies mudflows as a key hazard for the capital, alongside earthquakes, drought, and extreme heat. (UNDP)

Ashgabat’s exposure is especially important because heavy rainfall and flash floods can damage urban infrastructure due to the city’s proximity to the Kopet Dag Mountains. UNDP’s 2024 assessment notes that climate change poses substantial risks to urban infrastructure, including flash floods, landslides, and related impacts. (UNDP)

8. Earthquake and cascading-risk vulnerability

Earthquake risk remains one of Turkmenistan’s most serious low-frequency, high-impact hazards. The national disaster-risk profile identifies earthquakes as posing the greater high-impact risk compared with floods. (PreventionWeb) This is particularly important for Ashgabat, the Kopet Dag seismic zone, urban housing, public buildings, hospitals, schools, roads, pipelines, water systems, and energy infrastructure.

Earthquakes can also trigger cascading impacts such as slope failures, rockfalls, mudflows, infrastructure disruption, water-system damage, and emergency-access constraints. Seismic safety, lifeline infrastructure protection, resilient urban planning, and preparedness drills are therefore core components of Turkmenistan’s multi-hazard resilience agenda.

9. Caspian Sea coastal vulnerability

Turkmenistan’s Caspian Sea coast, including Balkan Province, Turkmenbashi, coastal transport corridors, ports, oil and gas facilities, fisheries, wetlands, and tourism assets, is exposed to changing Caspian Sea levels, shoreline retreat, coastal ecosystem disruption, salinity shifts, port-access challenges, and potential dust generation from exposed seabeds.

Recent scientific work on the Caspian Sea warns that a water-level decline of just 5–10 metres could critically disrupt ecosystems, reduce protected-area coverage, and render major civil and industrial infrastructure obsolete. (Nature) For Turkmenistan, this makes Caspian coastal adaptation different from conventional sea-level-rise planning: the priority is to manage sea-level variability and decline, ecosystem degradation, port and infrastructure exposure, and dust and salinity risks from retreating shorelines.

10. Health and social vulnerability

Climate change can worsen health risks through heat stress, dehydration, respiratory disease from dust storms, unsafe water, waterborne disease, malnutrition risk, and reduced access to reliable drinking water during shortages. UNDP’s assessment identifies elderly people, children, people with chronic disease, women responsible for household water management, and other vulnerable groups as particularly exposed to climate-related water and health risks. (UNDP)

The most vulnerable groups include small farmers, livestock keepers, rural households in water-stressed areas, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, outdoor workers, low-income urban households, communities dependent on irrigation, and people living in drought-prone, dust-prone, flood-prone, or seismic-risk areas.

11. Sector-specific vulnerability summary

12. Priority resilience needs

Turkmenistan’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, drought monitoring, heat-health action planning, water accounting, irrigation modernization, Amu Darya and Karakum Canal risk management, transboundary water cooperation, soil-salinity control, desertification management, dust-storm warning, flash-flood and mudflow forecasting, earthquake preparedness, Caspian coastal monitoring, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation.

Управление гражданской обороны и спасательных операций Министерства обороны Туркменистана (Directorate of Civil Defense and Rescue Operations of the Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan)

Directorate of Civil Defense and Rescue Operations of the Ministry of Defense of Turkmenistan oversees the prevention and response to natural disasters and fires. This is incorporated into state and local programs and departmental socio-economic development plans. 

The agency has also developed professional development programs for civil defense personnel, heads of central and local executive authorities, government agencies, and the general public. Additionally, there are separate courses covering actions to be taken in the event of accidents, fire and explosion hazards, and infectious diseases

During the summer, this work moves to children’s health centers, where rescuers consult with staff and teachers, as well as children, on safety rules and self-defense. Relevant educational work among teenagers during school holidays helps reduce road traffic injuries and the number of unforeseen accidents, both in urban settings and in natural environments—such as public recreation areas, the sea, and the mountains—by integrating rescuers, law enforcement agencies, and other agencies.

 Every year, a competition called “Young Rescuer” is held among schoolchildren at recreational sites. These events are held at children’s institutions in the velayats where the Service has regional branches: the Yashyl ​​Yayla Children’s Health Center in the Ahal Region, the Gara Altyn and Durdyan Children’s Health Centers in the Balkan Region, the Bagtyyar Nesil Children’s Health Center in the Dashoguz Region, the Bagtyyarlyk Children’s Health Center in the Lebap Region, the Arkadagly Bagtyyar Nesilleri Children’s Health Center in the Mary Region, and within the Avaza National Park. 

The team competition includes six firefighting sports. Children participate in the competitions with enthusiasm, interest, and even excitement, and the winners receive certificates of honor and commemorative prizes from the organizers.

Документы по Туркменистану, касающиеся климата и рисков стихийных бедствий.