Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Afghanistan

Afghanistan is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its mountainous terrain, arid and semi-arid climate, dependence on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, fragile watersheds, degraded natural resources, weak infrastructure, poverty, displacement, and limited institutional capacity. The country faces recurrent and severe risks from droughts, flash floods, riverine floods, earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, water scarcity, heat stress, extreme cold, crop failure, livestock losses, and climate-sensitive health and food-security shocks. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, more frequent droughts, extreme rainfall events, flood and landslide impacts, reduced water security, agricultural losses, and growing pressure on livelihoods, infrastructure, health, and vulnerable communities. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, drought and flood forecasting, earthquake preparedness, watershed restoration, climate-resilient agriculture, pastoralist resilience, social protection, disaster risk financing, and locally led community preparedness is essential to reduce losses and protect Afghanistan’s vulnerable populations.

Afghanistan is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its landlocked and mountainous geography, arid and semi-arid climate, high dependence on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, weak infrastructure, recurrent droughts and floods, active seismic setting, environmental degradation, poverty, displacement, and limited institutional capacity. The country is particularly exposed to droughts, flash floods, riverine floods, earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, extreme cold, heat stress, desertification, water scarcity, crop failure, livestock losses, and climate-sensitive health and food-security risks. The World Bank describes Afghanistan as highly prone to intense and recurring hazards, including flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. (World Bank)

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Afghanistan’s risk profile combines climate-related hazards and geophysical hazards. Major natural hazards include drought, flash floods, riverine floods, earthquakes, landslides, snow avalanches, extreme winter conditions, and localized storms. PreventionWeb’s disaster-risk data for Afghanistan estimates total average annual loss at around US$426.9 million, with floods and earthquakes accounting for most of the modeled loss burden. (PreventionWeb)

The country’s climate is continental, with large seasonal temperature differences. UNDP notes that temperatures can range from around 30°C in summer to -20°C in winter, while rainfall varies sharply across the country, from higher levels in the northeast mountains to very low rainfall in the southwest. (Adaptation UNDP) This spatial variability creates very different risk zones: drought-prone lowlands, flood-prone river valleys, avalanche-prone mountain corridors, earthquake-prone eastern and northeastern regions, and landslide-prone steep slopes.

2. Climate change as a risk multiplier

Climate change is worsening Afghanistan’s existing fragility by increasing the likelihood of drought, extreme rainfall, flooding, heat stress, and water-resource stress. The World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal identifies increased drought incidence, extreme rainfall, flooding, and higher temperatures as major climate pressures affecting Afghanistan. (Climate Change Knowledge Portal)

A 2026 climate, peace, and security analysis also describes Afghanistan as severely climate-vulnerable and more exposed than the global average to extreme weather and natural hazards such as droughts and floods. It further notes that environmental degradation, prolonged conflict, poor natural-resource management, and limited resilient infrastructure compound this exposure. (nupi.no)

3. Drought, water scarcity, and food-security vulnerability

Drought is one of Afghanistan’s most severe and persistent climate risks. It affects drinking water, rainfed crops, livestock, pasture, groundwater, food prices, rural income, and migration. The Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre reports that drought risk is currently highest in the Helmand basin, but climate change is expected to affect all river basins. (climatecentre.org)

Agriculture and pastoralism are highly exposed because many households depend on rainfall, snowmelt, seasonal water availability, grazing land, and small-scale irrigation. Repeated droughts reduce crop yields, weaken livestock, increase debt, reduce household food stocks, and intensify malnutrition. Food insecurity is therefore closely linked to climate shocks, conflict, displacement, weak markets, and declining humanitarian assistance. Reuters reported that the WFP estimated around 17 million Afghans were experiencing hunger in late 2025, with child malnutrition reaching record levels. (Reuters)

4. Flood, flash-flood, landslide, and avalanche vulnerability

Afghanistan is highly exposed to flash floods and riverine floods, particularly during spring snowmelt, intense rainfall, and sudden storms. Mountainous terrain, steep catchments, degraded watersheds, deforestation, poor drainage, settlement in floodplains, and weak protective infrastructure increase flood impacts. Floods can damage homes, roads, bridges, irrigation canals, farmland, schools, health facilities, markets, and water systems.

Landslides and avalanches are major mountain hazards. They are triggered by heavy rainfall, snowmelt, seismic activity, slope instability, road cutting, and degraded vegetation. These hazards can isolate communities, block strategic roads, destroy houses, and delay emergency response in remote valleys.

5. Earthquake vulnerability

Afghanistan is also highly exposed to earthquakes because it lies near the interaction of major tectonic plates. Reuters reported that Afghanistan is located at the edge of the Eurasian plate, where the Indian and Arabian plates interact, making it one of the world’s seismically active regions. Since 1990, at least 355 earthquakes above magnitude 5.0 have affected the country, causing significant annual fatalities and economic damage. (Reuters)

Earthquake risk is especially serious because many buildings are constructed with weak materials, rural settlements are remote, access roads are fragile, and earthquakes can trigger secondary landslides. Schools, health facilities, housing, water systems, roads, and bridges require seismic-resilient construction and retrofitting.

6. Sector-specific vulnerability summary

7. Social vulnerability

Afghanistan’s climate vulnerability is intensified by poverty, displacement, conflict legacy, limited access to services, low household savings, weak infrastructure, and high dependence on natural-resource-based livelihoods. The most vulnerable groups include smallholder farmers, pastoralists, landless rural households, internally displaced people, returnees, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, informal urban settlers, and communities living in flood-prone valleys, drought-prone drylands, earthquake-prone regions, and avalanche- or landslide-prone mountains.

Restrictions on women’s mobility and employment also reduce adaptive capacity because they limit access to livelihoods, humanitarian assistance, education, health services, and community-level risk management. Returnee pressures further increase vulnerability where housing, water, land, jobs, and services are already overstretched.

8. Priority resilience needs

Afghanistan’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, drought monitoring, flood forecasting, landslide and avalanche risk mapping, earthquake preparedness, climate-resilient agriculture, pastoralist livelihood protection, water-resource management, watershed restoration, resilient rural roads, climate-health surveillance, disaster risk financing, and community-based preparedness.

A practical resilience package for Afghanistan should include:

Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority

The Director General of Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority Met with the Head of Program Implementation and Quality at Afghan Aid.

His Excellency Alhaj Mullah Nooruddin Turabi, the Director General of Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority, met at his office with Abdul Rahman Tariq, the Head of the Program Implementation and Quality at #Afghan_Aid, and Mohammad Fuad Daudzada, the Project Officer of the organization. They discussed future joint programs.

His Excellency Turabi emphasized that cooperation between Organisations working in humanitarian assistance and disaster management and this Authority is extremely important and effective. To that end, we have prepared a list of priorities and needs, which includes humanitarian programs and preventive projects. You can take these into consideration when submitting your project proposals to donors. He further assured them that while the necessary facilities for project implementation are provided, the Authority remains ready to cooperate if any issues arise.

Meanwhile, Mr. Abdul Rahman Tariq expressed special thanks for the cooperation of the Director General of the Authority. He noted that there is no bureaucratic red tape in this administration — our work and documents are processed without us having to follow up. Alongside presenting information about the programs for the current Gregorian year, he stated that the organization has carried out activities in the areas of prevention, preparedness, emergency response, and reconstruction related to disaster management. In the future, they will continue efforts to implement projects across the country in line with the presented priorities and will share these needs with donors as well.

January 27th, 2026

Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority – ANDMA

Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA)