Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its arid and semi-arid climate, severe water scarcity, dependence on transboundary rivers and irrigated agriculture, soil salinity, desertification, Aral Sea degradation, seismic exposure, and vulnerable rural and water-stressed communities. The country faces major risks from drought, extreme heat, declining water availability, dust and sandstorms, land degradation, crop losses, pasture decline, floods, flash floods, mudflows, landslides, avalanches, earthquakes, public-health stress, and ecosystem degradation. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, higher evaporation, prolonged drought, reduced water reliability, worsening salinity, increased irrigation demand, more damaging hydrometeorological extremes, and growing pressure on agriculture, water security, health, infrastructure, ecosystems, and livelihoods. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, drought and heat monitoring, water-resource management, irrigation modernization, climate-resilient agriculture, Aral Sea region rehabilitation, flood and mudflow risk reduction, earthquake-safe infrastructure, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation is essential to reduce losses and protect Uzbekistan’s development gains.
Uzbekistan is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its arid and semi-arid climate, double-landlocked geography, heavy dependence on irrigated agriculture, severe water scarcity, transboundary river dependence, exposure to extreme heat and drought, the Aral Sea ecological crisis, flood and mudflow risks in mountain and foothill areas, and significant seismic exposure. The country’s major hazards include drought, heatwaves, water scarcity, desertification, soil salinity, dust storms, floods, flash floods, mudflows, landslides, avalanches, earthquakes, agricultural losses, and climate-sensitive health risks. (Asian Development Bank)
1. Multi-hazard exposure
Uzbekistan’s risk profile combines slow-onset climate stress, rapid-onset hydrometeorological hazards, and geophysical hazards. GFDRR’s disaster-risk profile states that Uzbekistan’s population and economy are exposed to both earthquakes and floods, with earthquakes posing the greater high-impact but lower-probability risk. The profile estimates that a 100-year flood could affect about US$4 billion of GDP and 2 million people, while a 250-year earthquake could affect about US$20 billion of GDP and 10 million people. (PreventionWeb)
Hazard exposure varies geographically. Karakalpakstan and Khorezm are highly exposed to Aral Sea degradation, drought, salinity, water scarcity, dust storms, and livelihood stress. Bukhara, Navoi, Kashkadarya, Surkhandarya, Jizzakh, and Samarkand face drought, heat, irrigation stress, land degradation, and agricultural losses. Tashkent, Fergana Valley, Andijan, Namangan, and foothill/mountain districts face earthquakes, floods, mudflows, landslides, avalanches, and urban/infrastructure exposure. (Asian Development Bank)
2. Climate change as a risk multiplier
Climate change is a major development risk for Uzbekistan because it directly affects water, agriculture, energy, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, and poverty reduction. The World Bank’s Country Climate and Development Report warns that, without adaptation action, Uzbekistan’s economy could be 10% smaller by 2050, with lower employment and household incomes. It also finds that adaptation investments can generate benefits two to three times higher than their costs. (World Bank)
Observed warming is already significant. UNDP’s evaluation of Uzbekistan’s adaptation planning process reports that warming trends since 1951 have occurred at more than twice the global average, while reductions in water resources and changing precipitation patterns are expected to worsen prolonged droughts and extreme weather events.
3. Water scarcity, irrigation dependence, and transboundary water vulnerability
Water scarcity is Uzbekistan’s most strategic climate vulnerability. Agriculture and irrigation depend heavily on water from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya systems, while high evaporation, outdated infrastructure, inefficient irrigation, groundwater stress, salinity, and transboundary water pressures increase risk. Water shortages, soil salinity, and erosion are already serious issues; about 20% of the population is affected by water salinization. (PreventionWeb)
Projected water deficits are severe. UNDP reports that Uzbekistan’s water deficit could rise from 2,000 m³ in 2005 to 7,000 m³ by 2030 and 13,000 m³ by 2050, with major implications for cotton, food crops, rural livelihoods, and agricultural employment.
4. Drought, heatwaves, desertification, and land degradation
Drought and extreme heat are central hazards in Uzbekistan’s arid and semi-arid landscapes. Rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration, irrigation demand, crop water stress, heat-related health risks, and pressure on already limited water resources. Drought also accelerates land degradation, pasture decline, soil salinity, and desertification, particularly in western, central, and southern regions. (Adaptation UNDP)
Desertification and ecosystem degradation are especially important in the Aral Sea region, where the exposed seabed has become the Aralkum salt desert. This contributes to dust and salt storms, soil contamination, respiratory health risks, reduced agricultural productivity, biodiversity loss, and long-term livelihood stress for communities in Karakalpakstan and Khorezm.
5. Aral Sea disaster and environmental-health vulnerability
The Aral Sea crisis is one of Uzbekistan’s defining climate and environmental vulnerabilities. UNDP reports that the Aral Sea has lost 57% of its surface area, 80% of its volume, and 64% of its depth in recent decades, transforming large parts of the former seabed into a salt desert that affects the country’s ecology.
The Aral Sea region faces compound risks: declining water availability, salinity, toxic dust storms, reduced fisheries, degraded farmland, lower household income, health impacts, and climate-driven livelihood insecurity. AP reporting from Muynak also highlights how hotter summers, shorter winters, and high salinity are worsening the already severe decline of the Aral Sea and affecting farming livelihoods. (AP News)
6. Agriculture, food security, and rural livelihood vulnerability
Agriculture is highly climate-sensitive because it depends on irrigation, river flows, groundwater, soil quality, pasture conditions, rural labour, and stable seasonal weather. Climate risks include drought, heat stress, water shortages, salinity, soil erosion, pests, crop diseases, floods, mudflows, hail, and reduced pasture productivity. Climate change and water scarcity could reduce crop yields by 20–50% by 2050, especially where irrigation water becomes unreliable and soil salinity worsens. (PreventionWeb)
| Sub-sector | Main climate and hazard risks |
|---|---|
| Irrigated crops | Water shortage, salinity, canal losses, drought, heat stress, reduced yields |
| Cotton and strategic crops | Irrigation stress, soil salinity, high water demand, heat impacts |
| Horticulture and orchards | Heat stress, water scarcity, frost variability, pests, hail and storm damage |
| Livestock and pastures | Drought, pasture degradation, water-point stress, heat stress, fodder shortage |
| Rural livelihoods | Reduced income, crop failure, health stress, migration pressure, food insecurity |
| Agro-infrastructure | Canal damage, inefficient irrigation, flood and mudflow damage, drainage constraints |
7. Flood, mudflow, landslide, and avalanche vulnerability
Although Uzbekistan is predominantly arid, floods and flash floods remain important hazards, particularly in foothill and mountain areas, river valleys, irrigated lowlands, and urban drainage systems. Intense rainfall, snowmelt, blocked drainage, reservoir stress, and poorly managed land use can trigger floods, mudflows, landslides, and infrastructure damage.
UNDP notes that climate change may increase the frequency of natural disasters in Uzbekistan and that increases in mudflows and avalanches are expected up to 2050. These risks are especially relevant in the Fergana Valley, Tashkent region, Surkhandarya, Kashkadarya, Samarkand, Jizzakh, and mountain/foothill districts, where settlements, roads, irrigation networks, and public facilities may be exposed. (Adaptation UNDP)
8. Earthquake and cascading-risk vulnerability
Earthquake risk is a major low-frequency, high-impact hazard in Uzbekistan. GFDRR identifies earthquakes as the greater high-impact risk compared with floods. Earthquake exposure is especially important for Tashkent, Fergana Valley, Andijan, Namangan, public buildings, schools, hospitals, housing, transport corridors, water systems, dams, industrial assets, and energy infrastructure. (PreventionWeb)
Earthquakes can also trigger cascading risks, including landslides, rockfalls, road blockages, dam or canal damage, water-supply disruption, and emergency-access constraints. This makes seismic risk reduction a core part of Uzbekistan’s wider multi-hazard resilience agenda.
9. Health, air quality, and social vulnerability
Climate change can worsen health risks through heat stress, dehydration, respiratory illness from dust storms, unsafe water, diarrhoeal disease, malnutrition, vector sensitivity, and disaster-related injuries. Health risks are particularly acute in the Aral Sea region, where salinity, dust storms, poor water quality, and environmental degradation compound climate vulnerability.
The most vulnerable groups include smallholder farmers, rural households in water-stressed areas, communities in Karakalpakstan and Khorezm, low-income households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, outdoor workers, women-headed households, livestock keepers, and people living in flood-, mudflow-, or earthquake-prone areas. Vulnerability is highest where climate exposure overlaps with poverty, water insecurity, salinized land, poor housing, weak infrastructure, limited insurance, and insufficient last-mile early warning.
10. Sector-specific vulnerability summary
| Sector | Main climate and multi-hazard risks |
|---|---|
| Water resources | Water scarcity, transboundary flow stress, irrigation demand, salinity, groundwater stress, drought |
| Agriculture and food security | Drought, heat stress, irrigation shortages, crop-yield decline, soil salinity, pests |
| Livestock and pastures | Pasture degradation, water scarcity, heat stress, fodder shortage, livestock disease |
| Aral Sea region | Dust storms, salinity, livelihood loss, health impacts, ecosystem degradation, water insecurity |
| Urban settlements | Heat stress, flash flooding, drainage stress, earthquake exposure, air-quality impacts |
| Mountain and foothill areas | Mudflows, landslides, avalanches, flash floods, earthquakes, road disruption |
| Health | Heat illness, respiratory disease, waterborne disease, malnutrition, disaster-related service disruption |
| Infrastructure | Earthquake damage, flood and mudflow disruption, canal losses, road and bridge damage |
| Ecosystems | Desertification, riparian forest decline, biodiversity loss, land degradation, water ecosystem stress |
11. Priority resilience needs
Uzbekistan’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, drought monitoring, heat-health action planning, water accounting, irrigation modernization, climate-resilient agriculture, soil-salinity control, Aral Sea region rehabilitation, flood and mudflow forecasting, earthquake preparedness, ecosystem restoration, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation.
Uzbekistan’s NDC 3.0 gives increased attention to adaptation and identifies key adaptation sectors including agriculture, water resources, ecosystems and forestry, disaster risk reduction, healthcare and social sphere, strategic infrastructure, and the Aral Sea region. The country has also advanced adaptation planning through a National Adaptation Plan process supported by UNDP and GCF, targeting agriculture, water, health, buildings, emergency management, and the three Aral Sea regions most vulnerable to climate change. (PreventionWeb)
| Priority area | Key actions |
|---|---|
| Early warning and anticipatory action | Impact-based warnings for drought, heatwaves, floods, mudflows, avalanches, dust storms, and earthquakes |
| Water security | Water accounting, irrigation efficiency, canal rehabilitation, groundwater monitoring, wastewater reuse, drought planning |
| Climate-resilient agriculture | Drought- and heat-tolerant crops, salinity management, climate-smart irrigation, agro-climate advisories, crop insurance |
| Aral Sea resilience | Saxaul planting, dust suppression, livelihood diversification, water-quality improvement, health surveillance |
| Flood and mudflow risk reduction | Hazard mapping, river and mountain-flow forecasting, drainage improvement, slope stabilization, evacuation planning |
| Earthquake resilience | Seismic-safe construction, retrofitting schools and hospitals, lifeline infrastructure protection, emergency drills |
| Health resilience | Heat-health plans, dust-storm alerts, WASH resilience, disease surveillance, targeted support for vulnerable groups |
| Ecosystem restoration | Riparian forest restoration, pasture rehabilitation, desertification control, biodiversity protection |
| Risk financing and governance | Contingency finance, insurance, forecast-based financing, climate-risk screening of public investments |
The Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan (CoES or CESCD)
The primary disaster management agency in Uzbekistan is the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MoES) (known locally as Oʻzbekiston Respublikasi Favqulodda vaziyatlar vazirligi or FVV). It is responsible for civil protection, search-and-rescue operations, natural disaster mitigation, and coordinating humanitarian assistance.
Subject: Looking forward to the scope of work and partnership opportunity with the Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan (CoES or CESCD).
To,
The Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan (CoES or CESCD)
Dear Sir,
Greetings from the Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Design and Implementation Center (MHEWC).
MHEWC provides technical solutions to strengthen Disaster Risk Management (DRM) governance systems, climate and multi-hazard risk management, and end-to-end early warning system design and implementation. We would be pleased to offer technical support to the CoES , in the following areas:
a) Upgrading the existing web portal into a geospatial, database-driven, and app-enabled Decision Support System (DSS) to support real-time disaster risk governance, planning, preparedness, response, and recovery management.
b) Conducting climate and multi-hazard risk and vulnerability assessments, including the preparation of geospatial hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk maps, and the establishment of a centralized risk information repository and database management system.
c) Assessing existing monitoring, observation, and early warning capacities and supporting the Ministry of Emergency Situations in the installation, enhancement, and integration of observation networks, including Automated Weather Stations (AWS), hybrid weather and hazard monitoring systems, and sensor-ingested real-time data systems linked to a functional DSS.
d) Designing and operationalizing end-to-end multi-hazard early warning systems, including weather and hazard nowcasting services, impact-based forecasting, forecast-based anticipatory early action, forecast-based emergency preparedness and response management, forecast-based financing, Early Action Protocol development, and DSS-supported Standing Orders on Disaster and Standard Operating Procedures.
e) Supporting automated hazard detection, monitoring, prediction, and emergency operations management, including the design, implementation, and operationalization of a Multi-Hazard and Disaster Emergency Operations Center (EOC).
f) Developing GIS, database, and information tool-driven local government and productive sector-level risk-informed planning and budgeting systems to strengthen disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, nature-based solutions, locally led adaptation, and resilience planning.
g) Reviewing and upgrading multi-hazard preparedness, response, and recovery plans across administrative levels and relevant priority sectors, in alignment with the CoES ’ institutional mandate and national disaster management priorities.
h) Providing any additional technical assistance as may be required by the Ministry of Emergency Situations to strengthen national-to-last-mile disaster risk governance and early warning capacities.
We would welcome the opportunity to discuss the CoES s’ priorities and explore how MHEWC can support the development of a practical implementation roadmap for strengthening multi-hazard early warning, risk information, and disaster risk governance systems.
We look forward to your kind response.
Sincerely,
Z M Sajjadul Islam
Director
Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Design and Implementation Center (MHEWC)
Web: mhewc.org
Email: [ sajjad@mhewc.org ] [ zmsajjad@gmail.com ]
Phone & WhatsApp: +88 01711 979179