Jordan :  climate and multi-hazard risk and vulnerabilities

Jordan is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks, especially water scarcity, drought, rising temperatures, heatwaves, flash floods, storms, landslides, desertification, dust storms, agricultural productivity decline, climate-sensitive health risks, and urban infrastructure stress. The country’s vulnerability is shaped by its arid and semi-arid climate, very limited freshwater resources, high dependence on imported food and energy, concentrated urban growth, refugee-related service pressures, and increasing competition for water among households, agriculture, industry, and ecosystems. The World Bank identifies Jordan’s climate-development priorities around five strategic sectors: water, energy, agriculture, transport, and urban development, with the water–energy–food nexus at the centre of national resilience planning. (World Bank)

Jordan’s most critical climate risk is extreme water scarcity. Weathering Risk notes that Jordan ranks among the world’s most water-stressed countries, with climate change expected to intensify water shortages through higher temperatures, lower precipitation, and increased evapotranspiration. The country has already experienced recurring droughts, flash floods, and landslides in recent decades.

Key hazard profile

Sector-specific vulnerability

1. Water security

Water security is Jordan’s defining climate-risk issue. Water demand already exceeds supply from aquifers and surface rivers, while declining rainfall, recurrent drought, high consumption, population growth, and refugee-related pressures have reduced per capita water availability to dangerously low levels. Groundwater is especially important, contributing a major share of total water supply, but many aquifers are over-extracted.

Climate change will worsen this imbalance through higher temperatures, increased evaporation, declining precipitation, and longer dry periods. The Red Cross Climate Centre notes that mid-century precipitation projections for Jordan indicate a 5–15% decrease, while droughts are expected to intensify as temperatures and evaporation increase.

The main water-risk pathways include:

1. declining groundwater levels and rising pumping costs;

2. reduced spring and surface-water flows;

3. higher irrigation demand under hotter conditions;

4. greater household water stress in poor and high-density urban areas;

5. increased dependence on treated wastewater, desalination and water transfers;

6. higher risk of service disruption during drought, heatwaves or infrastructure failure.

For Jordan, climate adaptation is therefore inseparable from water-demand management, non-revenue water reduction, groundwater governance, wastewater reuse, desalination, water harvesting, watershed protection, and climate-informed allocation planning.

2. Agriculture, food security and livelihoods

Agriculture contributes a relatively small share of national GDP, but it is highly important for rural livelihoods, food systems, employment, exports and local economies. Weathering Risk notes that only a small proportion of Jordan’s land is arable, while permanent pastures dominate agricultural land. Agricultural production is concentrated in the Jordan Valley and parts of the highlands, with more than half of agricultural land rainfed and agriculture consuming more than half of Jordan’s freshwater resources.

Climate change threatens agriculture through:

• reduced rainfall and shorter growing seasons;

• more frequent droughts and dry spells;

• higher irrigation demand;

• salinity and water-quality stress;

• heat stress affecting crops, livestock and workers;

• rangeland degradation and desertification;

• higher pest and disease risks;

• flash-flood damage to fields, terraces, greenhouses and irrigation systems.

Rainfed crops such as wheat and barley are particularly sensitive to rainfall variability and temperature rise. The Red Cross Climate Centre notes that rising temperatures, declining rainfall, changing rainfall seasons, frequent droughts and floods are expected to reduce both irrigated and rainfed productivity.

3. Urban vulnerability and infrastructure risk

Jordan is highly urbanized, with most people concentrated in northern and western urban corridors where water access, services, jobs and infrastructure are also concentrated. This creates high exposure to urban heat, flash flooding, drainage failure, water rationing, energy demand peaks, road disruption and service-delivery stress. Weathering Risk notes that more than 90% of the population lives in urban areas, mostly in the mountainous north-western region where rainfall and water accessibility are comparatively higher.

Urban flood risk is especially important because rainfall events can be intense and localized. In arid and semi-arid landscapes, dry wadis and hardened urban surfaces can generate rapid runoff. Amman, Zarqa, Irbid and other growing urban centres require stronger drainage planning, flood zoning, urban hydrology modelling, solid-waste management, and climate-resilient road and bridge design.

4. Refugee-hosting areas and social vulnerability

Jordan’s climate vulnerability is amplified by demographic and service pressures linked to displacement and migration. The Syrian refugee influx has increased pressure on natural resources, public services, housing, water supply, wastewater systems, schools, health facilities and municipal infrastructure. Weathering Risk notes that refugee inflows have heightened pressure on already limited natural resources, the economy and public services.

Refugee camps and host communities face specific climate risks. The Red Cross Climate Centre identifies flooding as a recurring concern in Za’atari camp, while also noting adaptation progress through drainage and sewage improvements. More broadly, vulnerable groups include poor urban households, refugees, women-headed households, elderly people, children, persons with disabilities, informal workers, small farmers, herders and communities dependent on limited water sources.

5. Public health vulnerability

Climate change affects public health in Jordan through heatwaves, water scarcity, poor air quality, dust storms, food safety risks, water-borne disease, vector-borne disease, malnutrition risk, occupational heat stress, and mental-health impacts after disasters. Rising temperatures and increasing very hot days are projected to raise heat-related health risks, especially in cities and among outdoor workers. Weathering Risk projects increasing heat-related mortality under future warming scenarios, with high emissions producing much higher risks by the end of the century.

Jordan has recognized this risk through health-sector adaptation planning. In 2025, the Ministry of Health launched Jordan’s Health Sector Climate Change Adaptation Strategy 2024–2033, which focuses on vector-borne and water-borne diseases, heat-related illness, food safety, occupational health, mental health, and airborne and respiratory disease. The strategy also emphasizes intersectoral cooperation, early warning systems, and preparedness capacity. (atachcommunity.com)

6. Ecosystems, rangelands and desertification

Jordan’s ecosystems are vulnerable to rising temperatures, decreasing rainfall, overgrazing, land degradation, water scarcity, invasive species, forest stress, biodiversity loss and desertification. Drier conditions favour desert expansion and dust-storm generation, which can worsen respiratory and cardiovascular illness. Weathering Risk notes that drier conditions are expected to intensify under climate change, requiring adaptation strategies to protect biodiversity and fragile ecosystem services.

Rangeland degradation is particularly important in the Badia, where pastoral livelihoods depend on scarce vegetation and groundwater resources. Climate adaptation should therefore include rangeland restoration, rotational grazing, drought-resilient fodder systems, water-point management, native vegetation restoration, and ecosystem-based adaptation.

Exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

Exposure

Jordan is exposed to slow-onset climate stressors such as drought, water scarcity, heat stress, desertification and ecosystem degradation, as well as rapid-onset hazards such as flash floods, storms, landslides, cold waves and dust storms. Climate projections show rising temperatures across the country, with stronger warming in already dry northeastern and southern regions. The annual number of very hot days above 35°C is projected to increase with high certainty.

Sensitivity

Sensitivity is high because Jordan’s water, food, energy, agriculture and urban systems are tightly connected. A drought does not only reduce rainfall; it affects groundwater pumping, irrigation demand, electricity demand, food prices, livestock conditions, household water supply, health risks and public expenditure. Water scarcity also limits the country’s ability to absorb climate shocks.

Adaptive capacity

Jordan has important institutional foundations for climate adaptation, including national climate policy, NDC implementation, adaptation planning, sector strategies, disaster-risk management structures and health-sector adaptation planning. Jordan submitted its National Adaptation Plan to the UNFCCC in March 2025. (UNFCCC) The World Bank also identifies coordinated investment and reform in water, energy, agriculture, transport and urban development as central to Jordan’s climate-resilient development pathway. (World Bank)

However, adaptive capacity remains constrained by water scarcity, fiscal pressure, import dependence, high infrastructure costs, rapid urbanization, refugee-hosting burdens, and the need for stronger local-level early warning, risk financing and climate-data integration.

Priority adaptation and early warning needs

Jordan’s resilience strategy should prioritize an end-to-end, impact-based, multi-hazard early warning system with water security at the centre.

Key priorities include:

1. Drought and water-scarcity early warning
   Integrate rainfall, reservoir storage, groundwater levels, soil moisture, vegetation condition, irrigation demand, water consumption, and seasonal forecasts into a national drought-monitoring system.

2. Flash-flood impact-based forecasting
   Develop wadi-level flood thresholds, high-resolution rainfall monitoring, urban drainage-risk modelling, road-crossing alerts, and community evacuation protocols for flood-prone valleys, tourist sites and urban areas.

3. Heat-health early warning
   Establish heat-risk thresholds for cities, schools, hospitals, outdoor workers, refugee camps and elderly populations, linked to health messaging, cooling centres and occupational safety measures.

4. Climate-smart water governance
   Reduce non-revenue water, expand treated wastewater reuse, strengthen groundwater regulation, improve metering, increase water-use efficiency, and align agricultural water allocation with climate-risk projections.

5. Climate-resilient agriculture
   Promote drought-tolerant crops, efficient irrigation, hydroponics where viable, protected agriculture, soil-moisture conservation, rangeland restoration, livestock drought advisories and agricultural insurance.

6. Urban flood and heat-risk management
   Upgrade drainage, protect critical roads and underpasses, enforce flood-sensitive land-use planning, expand urban greening, reduce heat-island effects and improve risk-informed municipal planning.

7. Refugee and host-community resilience
   Integrate refugee camps and host municipalities into national early warning, water planning, health surveillance, social protection and climate-finance programming.

8. Health-climate surveillance
   Link weather and climate data with surveillance for heat illness, diarrhoeal disease, vector-borne disease, respiratory illness, malnutrition and occupational health risks.

9. Dust storm and air-quality monitoring
   Strengthen early warnings for dust events, poor visibility, respiratory-risk days and transport disruption, especially in dryland and urban areas.

10. Geospatial Decision Support System
    Build a national DSS integrating hazard layers, water assets, aquifers, vulnerable populations, agriculture zones, refugee settlements, critical infrastructure, roads, hospitals, schools, flood-prone wadis and early-action triggers.

Jordan’s climate-risk profile is defined by extreme water scarcity, rising heat, declining rainfall, recurrent drought, flash-flood risk, urban and refugee-hosting pressures, limited arable land, and strong dependence on climate-sensitive water-energy-food systems. The country’s resilience pathway must therefore combine water-sector transformation, climate-smart agriculture, urban flood and heat management, ecosystem restoration, health adaptation, refugee-sensitive planning, climate finance, and impact-based early warning for early action.

At least 18, mostly children, killed in Jordan flash flood . October 26, 2018 at 2:31 am

National Center for Security and Crises Management

Jordan is one of the higher risk countries in the world for humanitarian crises and disasters; ranked 69th out of 191 countries by the 2022 Inform Risk Index (DRMKC, 2022). The country is exposed to droughts, floods, heatwaves, cold waves, rising temperatures and increasing aridity.

The National Center for Security and Crises Management is based on the advanced vision of His Majesty King Abdullah II, which called for the “creation of a Central Structure (Platform) for Crisis Management and a strategic umbrella through which the efforts of authorities are unified and well-coordinated to deal with possible crises at the state level”.

A Royal Letter to the Prime Minister in 2005, directed the establishment of a National Center for Security and Crises Management and His Royal Highness Prince Ali bin Al Hussein was entrusted with supervising the establishment of the Center. In 2013, the construction of the Center’s permanent headquarters was completed in accordance with international standards and specifications and the National Center for Security and Crises Management Bylaw No. (20) for the year 2015, was ratified by a Royal Decree and published in the Official Gazette; the Center became active on April 1, 2015.

🌟 Vision

A secure, resilient and withstanding national environment

📜 Message

Managing the risks of disasters and crises with high efficiency by coordinating and unifying all national efforts through strategic adaptation to ensure a secure and stable national environment.

🎯 Objectives

The National Center for Security and Crises Management aims to achieve its mission by harnessing national capabilities and unifying the efforts of relevant national institutions in order to reach professionalism in the areas of preparedness and responsiveness to national crises, both natural and man-made – with the least possible effort, time, cost and losses.

Public Security Directorate

https://psd.gov.jo/en-us/civil-defense/disaster-department

Disaster Department

The disaster management department was formed on 03.02.1991 as a vocal point between the General Directorate of Civil Defense , government institutions bodies, non-governmental and regional and international government agencies, with regard to the activities of those organizations in the field of disasters, the disaster management has many achievements, such as strengthening relationships with such bodies and organizations.

 Vision

Upgrading work to meet the advanced level of disaster management stages to prevent or reduce the damage resulted of various types of disasters as much as possible

Message

Carry out the duties of the department efficiently and creatively and cooperate with all relevant partners.

1-The higher Council of Civil Defence:

Article (3-A) of the Civil Defense  law No.(18) of the year 1999 , Higher Council for Civil Defense  is to be formed which considered is highest national authority in Jordan in order to manage disaster affairs and draw strategy and policy of Civil Defence, the law No.(18) of the year 1999 has authorized the higher Council of civil defense  during disasters. In the articles of the law that meets periodically or called into session whenever the minister (Interior Minister) needs for it.

Based on Article ( 4-j) of the Civil Defense  law No. 18 of 1999, the Council recommended adoption proposed budget for 2010, amounting about six (6) million dinars within the project the Ministry of Interior for the 2010 in order to perform the conical tasks and building emergency warehouse and shelters and prepare volunteer teams and until this moment 2.300.00 million has been spent to established emergency warehouses (middle region) in mouqar area inside civil defense  warehouses and equipped with all the necessary requirements at the end of July 2011.

The disaster management in coordination with the higher Council of Civil Defense  Secretariat to assist in supervision of regular and irregular meetings for Council and provide expertise and assistance to carry out the duties and tasks for the higher Council of Civil defense  is the most important supervision and follow-up to hold the recent meetings of the Council and its recommendations.

The draft of national strategy has been prepared to encounter disasters and discuss it during the Twentieth Meeting of the conical and transferred to the National Center for security and crisis management.

The supplies and requirements must be provided in the shelter of the main warehouse materials such as tents, blankets, cooking tools, beds, and others.

The instructions of civil defense  volunteers were to adopt on 31/12/2012.

The emergency warehouses instructions and exchange materials for these warehouses were adopting on 31/12/2012.

An agreement was signed between the Ministry of the Interior and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) within integration project in risk management and climate change, where the Civil Defense  provide theoretical and practical training for the target.

2-Jordan’s seismic monitoring center

Based on coordination visits that aimed to cooperate to provide the General Directorate of Civil Defense  with any seismic activity monitored by the center, the following procedure has been done.

The hotline should be established between the operations room in the General Directorate of Civil Defense  and the Center for Seismic Monitoring.

Provide them with a fax number and disaster management email, in administration as a reference point and are providing us with the report in the event of seismic activity.

3- Jordanian Nuclear Energy Commission

It is an independent government body; financially-administratively – The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources – established under the law of nuclear energy for the prevention of radiation No. 29 for the year 2001 and, that the Directorate of Nuclear Energy in the Ministry of Energy.

There is close cooperation between the General Directorate of Civil defense  in the field of training and rehabilitation the staff of civil defense  in the field of radiation protection through provides external grants and scientific visits.

Implementation technical cooperation project supported by the International Atomic Energy Agency through the Jordanian Nuclear Energy Commission that will be through provide scientific visits , regional and local training courses and equipment for the civil defense  directorate and developing national plan draft for response to radiological and nuclear accidents is currently in final stages.

The General Directorate of Civil Defense  had participated in the Jordanian nuclear power project, through workshops and meetings regarding the nuclear station site during August 2011.

4-Jordanian Hashemite Charity Organization / training center dealing with disasters:

The Jordanian Hashemite Charity Organization was established in December 1990 to be a national charitable Organization that dimensions in the field of humanitarian assistance the council consist of fifteen-member headed by Prince Rashid Bin Al Hassan and Director General of the Commission, Mr. Ayman Riad Mefleh. The department is connected with commission by strong ties represented by lecturers to deliver lectures at the training courses and workshops held by the Centre as well as coordination with regard to the participation of the research team of international and Jordanian rescue relief operations in countries that ask for help.

5-Jordanian Red Crescent:

The Jordan Red Crescent Society was established on 27/12/1947, and was recognized by the International Committee of the Red Cross in 1948 and became a member of the International Movement of the Red Cross and Red Crescent in 1950, and the Association its law No. 3/1969 as a non-governmental independent, its rules adopted by the General Assembly in 1970 and the Jordanian Red Crescent committed to achieving its mission which is alleviate the suffering of the victims and those affected to various disasters, and the cooperation between the General Directorate of civil defense  and the Jordanian Red Crescent national Assembly by participating in workshops, which are organized and lecturing in these workshops as well as to participate in the refugee camps where they were participating in several workshops in cooperation with the Jordanian Red Crescent Society for teachers and prepared awareness guide for schoolchildren and training teacher on guide

6-Crisis Center management / Jordan Armed Forces:

The cooperation between the disaster management and crisis management center in leadership through meetings in addition to the courses and provide them with the versions that are issued by the administration.

In addition to cooperation and coordination with :

1. Jordan Environment association.
2. Royal Geographic Center.
3. Royal Scientific association

Regional and international institutions and entities offices located in Jordan:

1-Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (International Search and Rescue Team of Jordan):

The General Directorate of Civil Defense  formed the search and rescue team due to exposed to disasters and various accidents corresponding to other world countries that require preparedness to reduce destruction effects. In 2003 formation The search and rescue team consisted of officers and staffs qualified and equipped with devices and equipment to carry out their duties in the field of search and rescue. The search and rescue team in 2009 prepared it for the international classification at heavy level based on the requirements and standards of the international Advisory commission for search and rescue team (Alansiraj) that follows United Nations.

On 20/05/2013 an international exercise was conducted for the search and rescue team for heavy level under supervision of the international classified working under the umbrella of Alansiraj where the team were classified (heavy level) as the first Arab team.

The Jordan search and rescue team consist of the following units:

• Search Unit: consists of

1. Search dogs: the dogs are trained to search for those trapped in the rubble as soon as possible.
2. Technical research: the use of special equipment and cameras to search for trapped people and communicate with them during work of the team.

• Rescue Unit: The unit dedicated to use penetrating and cutting equipment in the concrete and use ropes in a safe manner to ensure the safety of the Savior and the injured.

• Medical Unit: a specialized unit to provide medical care for trapped people under rubbles in addition to providing medical care to members of team throughout the mission period where the team includes (8) doctors in this field.

• Logistical support Unit: a specialized unit to secure food and drink for the team throughout period of the mission that may be continue to (10) days in addition to prepared necessary equipment.

• The management unit: a specialized unit to coordinate work of units with each other through coordination with the authorities of the affected country.

2- United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Office:

There is cooperation between the disaster management and the United Nations Development Programme and this cooperation represent mutual visits between the program office and the Director of Civil Defense  and agreed to cooperate in all fields of civil protection as participants in the courses and meetings organized by both sides were exchanged points of contact and coordination in all fields.

There are two projects with the United Nations Development Programme – Amman

1. National Project: is represented through preparing a study to find a seismic survey plan for the area of Amman, as well as a training program which has been allotted ($ 450) thousand dollars to complete the project the General Directorate of Civil Defense  was adopted as a reference point and an executor of the project, the project has been implementation a project during the period 2007-2009

2.The disaster risk management projects were finished on 31-8-2014 with the United Nations Development Programme had been implementing the following projects:

1. The buildings strengthening project of civil defense  in seismic- exposed areas.
2. The climate change Project and its association with disasters, which aims to strengthen institutional capacity in order to reduce disaster risk and encounter climate change in Jordan.

3-UNICEF

The Cooperation between the General Directorate of Civil Defense  and Oman UNICEF / for the reduction disaster risk in schools attended many workshops about reduction disaster risk, such as (children’s rights) and participate in preparation of awareness-raising brochures and distribute it to the target groups and also helping UNICEF to provide assistance for students in refugee camps through training them on use of fire extinguishers and how distributed it in camps classrooms and training in first aid and evacuation exercises for students within the school.

4- International Medical commission :

The cooperation between the civil defense  and the International Medical commission through reduction natural disaster risk project (earthquakes and floods) in schools, the project aims to reduce the risk of natural disasters and targets all schools in the Kingdom in order to increase awareness of categories with little information and the most exposed to disasters and with the support of UNICEF the Swiss Agency for Development and cooperation and coordination with the Ministry of Education, where the project is being implemented on three phases has completed the first and second phase and the third phase is being implemented where will be finished with end year 2015.