Dominican Republic

Climate risk and vulnerabilities of the Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its island geography, Caribbean hurricane exposure, long coastline, mountainous interior, flood-prone river basins, rapidly urbanizing settlements, tourism-dependent coastal economy, and climate-sensitive agriculture and water systems. The country is exposed to hurricanes, tropical storms, floods, flash floods, landslides, droughts, earthquakes, forest fires, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, storm surge, saltwater intrusion, heat stress, coral reef degradation, and climate-sensitive health risks. The World Bank describes the Dominican Republic as extremely vulnerable to droughts, floods, storms, hurricanes, landslides, and forest fires, and notes that it is among the countries with the highest global risk according to the 2023 World Risk Index. (World Bank)

The Dominican Republic is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its Caribbean island location, long coastline, hurricane exposure, mountainous watersheds, flood-prone settlements, tourism-dependent coastal economy, climate-sensitive agriculture, and water-resource stress. The country faces recurrent risks from hurricanes, tropical storms, storm surge, floods, flash floods, landslides, droughts, heat stress, earthquakes, forest fires, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion, coral reef degradation, and climate-sensitive health impacts. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, more extreme rainfall, stronger storm and flood impacts, drought stress, sea-level rise, beach erosion, ecosystem degradation, and growing pressure on livelihoods, infrastructure, tourism, agriculture, health, and vulnerable communities. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, coastal protection, flood and landslide risk reduction, climate-resilient tourism, drought and water-security planning, climate-smart agriculture, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation is essential to reduce losses and protect the Dominican Republic’s development gains.

1. Multi-hazard exposure

The Dominican Republic faces a combination of hydrometeorological, coastal, geophysical, and environmental hazards. Tropical cyclones and storms are among the most damaging risks, while floods, landslides, droughts, forest fires, and earthquakes also contribute significantly to national disaster risk. GFDRR’s disaster risk profile finds that risks are higher for tropical cyclones than for earthquakes, while floods are lower but still significant. Estimated annual average losses are US$676 million for tropical cyclones, US$467 million for earthquakes, and US$259 million for floods. (GFDRR)

The country’s mountainous terrain increases flash-flood and landslide risk when heavy rainfall affects steep watersheds, while low-lying urban and coastal areas face recurrent flooding, drainage congestion, storm surge, tidal flooding, and erosion. GFDRR also identifies the Dominican Republic as a disaster hotspot exposed to droughts, earthquakes, flooding, hurricanes, landslides, and storms. (GFDRR)

2. Climate change as a development risk multiplier

Climate change is increasing the Dominican Republic’s exposure to both rapid-onset disasters and slow-onset climate stresses. The World Bank’s Climate and Development Report states that the country is highly vulnerable to climate change, including extreme natural events and slow-onset changes such as rising temperatures and forest degradation, with impacts on important economic sectors and especially poor and vulnerable populations. (World Bank)

Climate shocks also create fiscal and economic risks. World Bank estimates indicate that climate events can cause losses of up to 1% of GDP, while hydrometeorological events are estimated to cost about 0.69% of GDP per year. (World Bank)

3. Hurricane, storm-surge, and flood vulnerability

Hurricanes and tropical storms are among the most severe hazards for the Dominican Republic. They can generate destructive winds, storm surge, coastal flooding, extreme rainfall, river flooding, flash floods, landslides, road damage, crop losses, power disruption, water contamination, and displacement. The country’s island location in the Caribbean basin places it among countries exposed to recurrent tropical storm and hurricane impacts. (World Bank)

Flood risk is especially high in urban areas and river basins where intense rainfall interacts with poor drainage, informal settlements, blocked channels, deforestation, slope degradation, and settlement expansion in flood-prone areas. Santo Domingo, Santiago, San Pedro de Macorís, La Romana, Puerto Plata, and other urban and coastal zones face different combinations of pluvial flooding, river flooding, coastal flooding, and storm-related disruption.

4. Coastal vulnerability, tourism, and sea-level rise

Coastal risk is one of the Dominican Republic’s most strategic climate vulnerabilities because a large share of tourism, infrastructure, ports, beaches, hotels, airports, roads, settlements, and marine ecosystems are located along the coast. UNEP-GRID identifies projected coastal-marine impacts including flooding from sea-level rise, beach erosion, coral bleaching, and mangrove degradation, with implications for coastal populations and the tourism industry. (Interactive Country Fiches)

Sea-level rise is especially important for Santo Domingo and other coastal settlements. The World Bank has highlighted that Santo Domingo could be among the Latin American cities most affected by rising sea levels, illustrating the importance of linking coastal risk management with social, economic, and environmental planning. (World Bank)

5. Agriculture, drought, and water-security vulnerability

Agriculture is exposed to drought, irregular rainfall, heat stress, storms, floods, pests, diseases, soil erosion, and water scarcity. Climate shocks can affect rice, plantain, banana, cocoa, coffee, vegetables, livestock, and smallholder farming systems. Drought and rainfall variability are particularly important because they affect irrigation, drinking water, hydropower, crop yields, livestock, and rural livelihoods.

Water security is a growing adaptation priority. Climate change can increase dry-season stress, reduce water availability, increase competition among agriculture, tourism, domestic supply, energy, and industry, and worsen water quality after floods. Floods can contaminate water systems, while droughts can reduce river flows, reservoir levels, groundwater recharge, and irrigation reliability.

6. Sector-specific vulnerability summary

7. Social vulnerability

The most vulnerable groups include low-income urban households, informal settlers, smallholder farmers, coastal communities, fishing communities, tourism-dependent workers, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, migrants, and communities living in flood-prone, landslide-prone, drought-prone, coastal, or earthquake-prone areas.

Vulnerability is highest where climate exposure overlaps with poor housing, weak drainage, insecure tenure, limited savings, low insurance coverage, dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods, and limited access to timely early warning and recovery finance. A 2024 report cited by PreventionWeb states that 30% of the Dominican population is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, showing that climate vulnerability is both spatial and social. (PreventionWeb)

8. Priority resilience needs

The Dominican Republic’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, hurricane and storm-surge preparedness, flood and landslide risk mapping, urban drainage upgrading, coastal-zone management, climate-resilient tourism, drought monitoring, water-resource management, climate-smart agriculture, ecosystem-based adaptation, disaster risk financing, and shock-responsive social protection.

A practical resilience package should include:

The Dominican Republic’s National Adaptation Plan process aims to reduce vulnerability by strengthening adaptive capacity and resilience while integrating adaptation across sectors and levels of governance. (NAP Global Network)