Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Botswana
Botswana is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its arid and semi-arid climate, low and variable rainfall, recurring droughts, structural water scarcity, high groundwater dependence, fragile rangelands, limited rainfed agricultural potential, reliance on livestock and wildlife-based tourism, and exposure of rural livelihoods, water systems, ecosystems and infrastructure to repeated shocks. The country faces major risks from drought, extreme heat, water shortages, desertification, land degradation, rangeland deterioration, wildfires, flash floods, riverine floods, crop failure, livestock losses, biodiversity stress, wildlife mortality, food insecurity, public-health risks and infrastructure disruption. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through higher temperatures, shorter and less reliable rainy seasons, more frequent dry spells, increased evaporation, heavier localized rainfall events, declining rangeland productivity, groundwater stress and growing pressure on food security, water security, health, infrastructure, ecosystems and vulnerable rural communities. Strengthening drought early warning, impact-based forecasting, groundwater and water-demand management, climate-resilient livestock systems, rangeland restoration, flood-risk reduction, heat-health planning, wildfire management, biodiversity protection, disaster risk financing and locally led adaptation is essential to reduce losses and protect Botswana’s development gains.
Botswana is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks because it is a landlocked, arid to semi-arid country where the Kalahari environment covers much of the national territory, rainfall is low and highly variable, surface water is scarce, and rural livelihoods depend strongly on livestock, rangelands, groundwater, rainfed crops, wildlife-based tourism, and natural ecosystems. Its main hazards include drought, water scarcity, extreme heat, dry spells, desertification, land degradation, rangeland degradation, wildfires, flash floods, riverine floods, severe storms, crop failure, livestock losses, biodiversity stress, human-wildlife conflict, food insecurity, and climate-sensitive health risks. Botswana is repeatedly identified as vulnerable to climate variability because of low and unreliable rainfall and the high dependence of agriculture, water, health and tourism sectors on climate-sensitive systems. (Wikipedia)
1. Multi-hazard exposure
Botswana’s major climate and disaster risks include droughts, dry spells, water scarcity, extreme heat, floods, flash floods, heavy rainfall, wind and dust storms, wildfires, land degradation, desertification, crop pests, livestock disease, and climate-sensitive disease risks. The country has a semi-arid climate, a short rainy season, a long dry season, and strong spatial rainfall gradients: the south-west is much drier, while the north and south-east receive comparatively higher rainfall. (Wikipedia)
The risk profile differs across the country. Kgalagadi, Ghanzi, Kweneng, Central, Southern and Kgatleng are highly exposed to drought, water scarcity, heat, rangeland degradation, livestock stress and food-security pressure. Ngamiland, Chobe and the Okavango Delta system face water-flow variability, flood-pulse changes, wildlife stress, tourism risk, human-wildlife conflict and ecosystem sensitivity. Gaborone, Francistown, Lobatse, Selebi-Phikwe, Palapye and other urban centres face water-supply stress, drainage problems, heat exposure, road flooding and service disruption during intense rainfall.
2. Climate change as a development risk multiplier
Climate change is a major development risk for Botswana because it directly affects water resources, livestock, agriculture, rangelands, biodiversity, tourism, public health, urban services, rural livelihoods and disaster-response costs. Climate-risk summaries indicate that Botswana is expected to face more intense and frequent drought conditions linked to shorter rainy seasons and fewer rainy days, while heavy destructive rainfall events can still occur during some seasons. (Wikipedia)
Botswana’s economy is more diversified than many countries in the region, but climate risk remains significant because livestock, dryland farming, wildlife tourism, groundwater supply and ecosystem services are central to rural resilience and national development. The regional 2023/24 El Niño drought affected Southern Africa severely; SADC reported that nearly 68 million people across the region were affected by drought, with crop and livestock losses, food shortages and economic impacts across multiple countries. (Reuters)
3. Drought, water scarcity and groundwater vulnerability
Drought is Botswana’s defining climate risk. Drought reduces pasture, lowers groundwater recharge, increases borehole pressure, damages rainfed crops, reduces livestock productivity, raises water-delivery costs, increases wildfire risk and deepens rural livelihood stress. Botswana faces two closely linked environmental problems: drought and desertification; surface water is scarce, and a large share of the human and livestock population depends on groundwater during dry periods. (Wikipedia)
Water scarcity affects households, livestock, agriculture, mining, tourism, industry, schools, health facilities and urban services. During prolonged drought, dams and boreholes come under pressure, water rationing may increase, and rural communities become more dependent on water trucking, deep boreholes and emergency supply systems. Climate change can worsen this by increasing evaporation, reducing soil moisture and raising demand for water from people, livestock and ecosystems.
4. Agriculture, livestock and food-security vulnerability
Agriculture in Botswana is highly climate-sensitive. Crop production is limited by low rainfall, high rainfall variability, heat, poor soil moisture, pests, drought and flood damage. Livestock is more important than crop production in many rural areas, but it is also highly exposed to pasture decline, water shortages, heat stress, disease, land degradation and market shocks. Less than 5% of Botswana’s agriculture is described as sustainable by rainfall alone, while livestock is the primary source of rural income across much of the remaining land area. (Wikipedia)
| Sub-sector | Main climate and hazard risks |
|---|---|
| Rainfed crops | Drought, delayed rains, dry spells, heat stress, crop failure, pests, flash floods |
| Livestock and cattle systems | Water shortages, pasture decline, heat stress, disease, drought-related mortality, distress sales |
| Communal rangelands | Overgrazing, bush encroachment, soil erosion, land degradation, reduced carrying capacity |
| Smallholder livelihoods | Food insecurity, low savings, water stress, reduced income, migration pressure |
| Food markets | Reduced local production, price pressure, import dependence, weakened household purchasing power |
| Rural women and vulnerable households | Limited access to land, credit, extension, water and adaptive technologies |
The importance of rangelands is reflected in recent adaptation investment. Botswana’s communal-rangelands restoration programme supported by the Green Climate Fund focuses on improving livestock and rangeland drought resilience through rotational grazing, borehole rehabilitation, reseeding and other rangeland-restoration measures in areas including Ngamiland, Bobirwa and Kgalagadi. (Wikipedia)
5. Desertification, land degradation and rangeland vulnerability
Desertification and land degradation are central climate-vulnerability issues in Botswana. Approximately 71% of the country’s land is used for communal grazing, and overgrazing, recurrent drought, weak vegetation recovery, soil erosion and water scarcity have contributed to rangeland degradation. (Wikipedia)
Land degradation increases both drought and flood risk. Degraded soils absorb less rainfall, store less moisture, produce more runoff during heavy rain, and support less pasture during dry periods. This weakens livestock systems, increases feed costs, accelerates erosion, reduces biodiversity and increases pressure on boreholes, grazing reserves and communal land-management systems.
6. Flood, flash-flood and urban drainage vulnerability
Although Botswana is drought-prone, floods are also a major hazard. Intense rainfall can overwhelm drainage systems, damage roads, flood settlements, disrupt schools, wash away topsoil and crops, damage bridges and culverts, and contaminate water sources. Flood risk is particularly important in urban areas and low-lying drainage zones where heavy rainfall exceeds the capacity of stormwater systems.
The 2025 Botswana floods showed that the country can experience damaging rainfall extremes despite its semi-arid climate. Flooding affected areas including Ghanzi, Gaborone and Francistown, caused widespread road closures, led to temporary school closures from 19–24 February 2025, damaged infrastructure, displaced residents and resulted in loss of life. (Wikipedia)
7. Heatwaves, wildfires and health vulnerability
Rising temperatures increase heat stress, dehydration, labour-productivity losses, livestock stress, crop water demand, wildfire risk and public-health pressure. Climate-risk summaries indicate that Botswana has already warmed substantially since the early twentieth century, with very hot conditions during spring and summer and stronger risks from heatwaves, droughts and fires. (Wikipedia)
Health risks are linked to both dry and wet extremes. Drought reduces water availability and hygiene, while floods can contaminate water sources and increase diarrhoeal disease risks. Northern and transition-zone districts are climate-sensitive for malaria risk, and climate variables such as rainfall and temperature influence diarrhoeal disease seasonality. (Wikipedia)
8. Biodiversity, wildlife, tourism and Okavango Delta vulnerability
Botswana’s biodiversity and wildlife-based tourism are highly climate-sensitive. The Okavango Delta, Chobe, Makgadikgadi, Kgalagadi and other dryland and wetland ecosystems depend on rainfall, river inflows, groundwater, vegetation productivity and wildlife migration corridors. Drought can reduce water availability, dry grazing areas, concentrate wildlife around water points and increase wildlife mortality and human-wildlife conflict.
The 2023/24 regional drought demonstrated these ecological risks. Reuters reported that Botswana lost about 300 elephants to drought, while Southern African countries in the Kavango-Zambezi conservation landscape feared further wildlife deaths as food and water sources dwindled. (Reuters)
9. Water, WASH and infrastructure vulnerability
Botswana’s infrastructure vulnerability is closely tied to water stress and flood extremes. Drought affects dams, boreholes, livestock water points, household water supply, schools, clinics, mining, tourism facilities and urban systems. Floods damage roads, bridges, drainage, culverts, water systems, sanitation facilities and public buildings.
Critical exposed systems include boreholes, dams, pipelines, water-treatment systems, rural water points, roads, bridges, schools, health facilities, livestock infrastructure, tourism lodges, protected-area roads, markets and urban drainage networks. Water-sector reforms and major water-supply infrastructure are important, but climate variability continues to create recurrent stress for national and local water security. (Wikipedia)
10. Sector-specific vulnerability summary
| Sector | Main climate and multi-hazard risks |
|---|---|
| Water resources | Drought, groundwater stress, low dam levels, high evaporation, water-quality decline, infrastructure pressure |
| Agriculture | Low rainfall, delayed rains, crop failure, pests, flash floods, heat stress |
| Livestock and rangelands | Pasture decline, water shortages, heat stress, disease, overgrazing, rangeland degradation |
| Food security | Low domestic crop production, livestock losses, price shocks, import dependence, rural livelihood stress |
| Health and WASH | Heat stress, diarrhoeal disease, malaria-risk shifts, water shortages, flood contamination |
| Biodiversity and tourism | Drought stress, wildlife mortality, wetland-flow variability, human-wildlife conflict, fire risk |
| Infrastructure | Flooded roads, damaged culverts, water-supply disruption, urban drainage failure, remote-area isolation |
| Urban areas | Heat exposure, water rationing, flash flooding, drainage stress, informal-settlement vulnerability |
| Public finance | Drought relief, water-supply costs, livestock support, flood repair, ecosystem management costs |
11. Social vulnerability
The most vulnerable groups include smallholder farmers, communal-area livestock keepers, remote rural households, Indigenous and minority communities in dryland areas, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, informal urban residents, households with limited water storage, and communities dependent on livestock, rainfed crops, tourism or natural resources.
Vulnerability is highest where climate exposure overlaps with poverty, limited access to water, weak rangeland governance, low savings, limited insurance, limited extension services, poor road access, high dependence on livestock and weak access to timely weather and climate information.
12. Priority resilience needs
Botswana’s resilience agenda should prioritize drought early warning, impact-based forecasting, groundwater monitoring, water-demand management, climate-resilient livestock systems, rangeland restoration, flood-risk mapping, urban drainage improvement, heat-health planning, wildfire management, biodiversity protection, disaster risk financing and locally led adaptation.
| Priority area | Key actions |
|---|---|
| Early warning and anticipatory action | Impact-based warnings for drought, heat, floods, wildfires, crop failure, livestock stress, water shortages and disease risks |
| Water security | Groundwater monitoring, borehole management, dam operations, rainwater harvesting, water reuse, leakage reduction, drought contingency planning |
| Livestock resilience | Fodder banks, rotational grazing, livestock water planning, animal-health services, market-based destocking and restocking |
| Rangeland restoration | Reseeding, bush management, grazing plans, borehole rehabilitation, community rangeland governance |
| Climate-resilient agriculture | Drought-tolerant crops, conservation agriculture, agro-climate advisories, pest surveillance, small-scale irrigation where feasible |
| Flood-risk management | Flood mapping, drainage upgrading, bridge and culvert resilience, flood-safe schools and clinics, community evacuation planning |
| Health and WASH resilience | Heat-health plans, diarrhoeal-disease surveillance, malaria monitoring, flood-safe WASH, emergency water supply |
| Biodiversity and tourism resilience | Wildlife water management, fire management, ecosystem monitoring, Okavango Delta flow monitoring, human-wildlife conflict reduction |
| Risk financing and governance | Contingency funds, livestock insurance, drought-risk financing, forecast-based financing, shock-responsive social protection |
National Disaster Management Office Botswana
Subject: Working opportunity with the National Disaster Management Organization (NADMO)
Dear Sir,
Greetings from the Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Design and Implementation Center (MHEWC).
MHEWC provides technical solutions to strengthen Disaster Risk Management (DRM) governance systems, climate and multi-hazard risk management, and end-to-end early warning system design and implementation. We would be pleased to offer technical support to the NADMO of Botswana, in the following areas:
a) Upgrading NDMA’s existing web portalinto a geospatial, database-driven, and app-enabled Decision Support System (DSS) to support real-time disaster risk governance, planning, preparedness, response, and recovery management.
b) Conducting climate and multi-hazard risk and vulnerability assessments,including the preparation of geospatial hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk maps, and the establishment of a centralized risk information repository and database management system.
c) Assessing existing monitoring, observation, and early warning capacitiesand supporting NADMO in the installation, enhancement, and integration of observation networks, including Automated Weather Stations (AWS), hybrid weather and hazard monitoring systems, and sensor-ingested real-time data systems linked to a functional DSS.
d) Designing and operationalizing end-to-end multi-hazard early warning systems,including weather and hazard nowcasting services, impact-based forecasting, forecast-based anticipatory early action, forecast-based emergency preparedness and response management, forecast-based financing, Early Action Protocol development, and DSS-supported Standing Orders on Disaster and Standard Operating Procedures.
e) Supporting automated hazard detection, monitoring, prediction, and emergency operations management, including the design, implementation, and operationalization of a Multi-Hazard and Disaster Emergency Operations Center (EOC).
f) Developing GIS, database, and information tool-driven local government and productive sector-level risk-informed planning and budgeting systems to strengthen disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, nature-based solutions, locally led adaptation, and resilience planning.
g) Reviewing and upgrading multi-hazard preparedness, response, and recovery plansacross administrative levels and relevant priority sectors, in alignment with NADMO ’s institutional mandate and national disaster management priorities.
h) Providing any additional technical assistanceas may be required by NADMO to strengthen national-to-last-mile disaster risk governance and early warning capacities.
We would welcome the opportunity to discuss NADMO ’s priorities and explore how MHEWC can support the development of a practical implementation roadmap for strengthening multi-hazard early warning, risk information, and disaster risk governance systems.
We look forward to your kind response.
Sincerely,
Z M Sajjadul Islam
Director
Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Design and Implementation Center (MHEWC)
Web: mhewc.org
Email: sajjad@mhewc.org
Phone & WhatsApp: +88 01711 979179
