Ethiopia

Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Ethiopia

Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its dependence on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, high exposure to drought and floods, land degradation, rapid population growth, water-resource variability, complex highland–lowland geography, and localized exposure to earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, epidemics, and pest outbreaks. GFDRR identifies Ethiopia’s major hazards as drought, flood, landslide, earthquake, and volcano, with drought as one of the country’s most severe and recurrent disaster risks. (GFDRR)

Ethiopia is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its dependence on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, fragile drylands, degraded watersheds, recurrent droughts and floods, water-resource variability, poverty, displacement, and limited infrastructure resilience. The country faces major risks from droughts, floods, flash floods, landslides, water scarcity, land degradation, crop failure, livestock losses, heat stress, pest outbreaks, earthquakes, volcanic hazards, and climate-sensitive disease risks. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, rainfall variability, prolonged dry spells, extreme rainfall events, flood damage, soil erosion, food insecurity, livelihood disruption, and growing pressure on agriculture, water resources, health, infrastructure, ecosystems, and vulnerable rural and urban communities. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, drought and flood risk management, climate-smart agriculture, pastoralist resilience, water security, watershed restoration, disaster risk financing, shock-responsive social protection, and locally led adaptation is essential to reduce losses and protect Ethiopia’s development gains.

Figure . Ethiopia’s regional states, city administrations, and major river basins.

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Ethiopia’s hazard profile is dominated by drought and flood, but the country also faces landslides, earthquakes, volcanic hazards, epidemics, crop pests, and localized urban flooding. Drought affects large parts of the lowlands, pastoralist areas, and rainfed farming systems, while floods are recurrent in river basins, lowland floodplains, urban settlements, and areas affected by intense seasonal rainfall. GFDRR reports that, on average, about 1.5 million people are affected by drought every year in Ethiopia. (GFDRR)

The country’s vulnerability is strongly shaped by structural development factors, including dependence on rainfed agriculture, low adaptive capacity, deforestation, land degradation, and increasingly dense settlements. GFDRR also notes that Ethiopia is exposed to droughts, floods, volcanoes, and earthquakes, with vulnerability influenced by rainfed agriculture, land degradation, and pressure on natural resources. (GFDRR)

2. Climate change as a development risk multiplier

Climate change is a major development risk for Ethiopia. The World Bank’s 2024 Country Climate and Development Report estimates that annual average GDP losses from climate change could range from 1% to 1.5% of GDP and rise to around 5% by the 2040s, potentially pushing millions more Ethiopians into poverty. (World Bank)

Climate change is expected to increase temperature, rainfall variability, drought stress, flood risk, water scarcity, land degradation, and food-security pressure. Ethiopia’s climate risk is therefore not only an environmental challenge; it is also a macroeconomic, poverty, food-security, livelihood, infrastructure, health, and social-protection challenge.

3. Drought, pastoralism, and food-security vulnerability

Drought is Ethiopia’s most critical climate-risk driver, especially in Somali, Afar, Oromia, southern, south-eastern, and eastern lowland areas, where pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods depend heavily on rainfall, rangeland condition, water points, livestock health, and seasonal mobility.

Repeated droughts reduce pasture, dry up water sources, weaken livestock body condition, increase livestock mortality, reduce milk production, disrupt markets, increase food prices, and deepen food insecurity. WFP’s 2024 Ethiopia Annual Country Report notes that climate shocks, including La Niña-driven drought and flash floods, worsened food insecurity, leaving 15.8 million people in need of food assistance. (WFP Tind)

Drought vulnerability is highest among:

4. Flood, flash-flood, and landslide vulnerability

Flooding is a recurrent hazard in Ethiopia, affecting both lowland and highland areas. Riverine floods occur along major basins, while flash floods are common in areas with intense rainfall, degraded catchments, poor drainage, steep slopes, and settlements located near floodplains or seasonal streams. GFDRR’s Ethiopia disaster risk profile identifies flood risk as one of the major national hazards alongside drought, landslide, earthquake, and volcanic risk. (World Bank)

Flood risk is especially important in the Awash, Omo-Gibe, Wabi Shebelle, Genale-Dawa, Baro-Akobo, Abay/Blue Nile, and Rift Valley basin areas. Floods damage crops, roads, bridges, irrigation schemes, water systems, schools, health facilities, and housing. In rural areas, flood shocks can destroy harvests and livestock assets; in urban areas, they can overwhelm drainage systems, contaminate water supplies, and disrupt transport and public services.

Landslides are concentrated in steep highland areas where intense rainfall, deforestation, soil erosion, road cutting, settlement expansion, and cultivation on unstable slopes increase risk. Landslides can isolate communities, damage roads and bridges, destroy farmland, and disrupt service delivery.

5. Agriculture, livestock, and rural livelihood vulnerability

Agriculture is central to Ethiopia’s climate vulnerability because a large share of production depends on rainfall. Drought, delayed rains, intense rainfall, floods, soil erosion, pests, crop disease, heat stress, and land degradation directly affect food security, rural incomes, exports, and poverty reduction. Ethiopia’s adaptation planning identifies agriculture, land use and forestry, water, health, urban settlements, transport, and energy as key adaptation sectors. (NAP Global Network)

Key agricultural and livelihood risks include:

6. Water-resource and hydropower vulnerability

Water security is a major climate-sensitive issue in Ethiopia. The country has important river basins and major hydropower potential, but rainfall variability, drought, watershed degradation, sedimentation, flood damage, groundwater stress, and competing demand from agriculture, cities, industry, and energy systems create increasing pressure.

The World Bank’s climate and health vulnerability assessment highlights water scarcity as a critical issue for Ethiopia’s agriculture and livestock systems, especially under projected climate stress. (Open Knowledge Repository)

Water-related risks include:

7. Health and nutrition vulnerability

Climate change affects public health through food insecurity, malnutrition, water scarcity, heat stress, flood-related disease outbreaks, poor water quality, vector-borne diseases, and disruption of health services. The World Bank’s 2024 Climate and Health Vulnerability Assessment for Ethiopia was developed to support planning for climate-related health risks, confirming the growing importance of climate-health adaptation. (Open Knowledge Repository)

Health vulnerabilities are especially high where drought, displacement, conflict, poor WASH access, food insecurity, and weak health-service coverage overlap. Floods can increase waterborne disease risks, while drought can worsen malnutrition, reduce water quality, and increase pressure on women and children responsible for water collection.

8. Urban and infrastructure vulnerability

Ethiopia’s rapidly growing towns and cities face increasing exposure to urban flooding, water scarcity, heat stress, poor drainage, informal settlement expansion, landslide risk, and infrastructure stress. Climate stressors including flooding and water scarcity threaten rapidly urbanizing areas, which already face pressure from service demand and infrastructure deficits. (PreventionWeb)

Critical infrastructure risks include:

9. Conflict-sensitive and social vulnerability

Ethiopia’s climate vulnerability is intensified by poverty, displacement, conflict, market disruption, resource competition, and limited household assets. Drought and pasture scarcity can increase pressure on mobility corridors and water points, while floods and land degradation can damage assets and deepen livelihood stress.

The most vulnerable groups include pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, smallholder farmers, landless labourers, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, displaced people, refugees, informal urban settlers, and communities living in drought-prone, flood-prone, landslide-prone, or degraded landscapes.

10. Sector-specific vulnerability summary

11. Priority resilience needs

Ethiopia’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, drought monitoring, impact-based forecasting, flood forecasting, climate-resilient agriculture, pastoralist livelihood protection, water-security planning, watershed restoration, rangeland management, scalable social protection, climate-health surveillance, resilient infrastructure, urban flood management, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation.

A practical resilience package for Ethiopia should include:

The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission

The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (Amharic: የኢትዮጵያ የአደጋ ጊዜ ሥራ አመራር ኮሚሽን; EDRMC) is an autonomous Ethiopian government agency responsible for management and control of national disaster risk policy in Ethiopia. It was regulated by the Council of Ministers Regulation No. 363/2015.

The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC) was established in 2015 by the Council of Ministers Regulation No. 363/2015. The commission is responsible for coordinating and managing the disaster risk policy and initiates strategies in every administrative levels. In addition, the proclamation declared the National Disaster Risk Management Commission as an autonomous federal government office with functions and powers.^[1][2][3]

In late 2021, EDRMC relocated its report to the Prime Minister Office.^[4] During the 2024–25 earthquakes, EDRMC was actively working with the collaboration of the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC).^[5]

About the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission

The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC) has the following specific duties and responsibilities:

1. Prepare and revise as required disaster prevention and preparedness national policy; formulate strategy for its application; and upon approval follow up its implementation;
2. Create, strengthen, and administer stand-by capacities over selected and strategic areas for timely, effective, and appropriate response against fast onset and other disasters of national concern;
3. In cooperation with domestic and foreign information sources, to monitor, forecast, and warn against disasters that could affect the agricultural sector and livelihoods of the population;
4. When fast onset or other disasters of national concern occur, in cooperation with concerned bodies, to assess their cause, magnitude and extent; and identify appropriate responses; officially declare the disaster as required;
5. Provide financial and logistics support to relevant bodies for timely response against fast onset and other disasters of national concern; monitor, coordinate, and be involved in prevention and control operations as required;
6. In cooperation with concerned bodies, to timely provide the necessary emergency and recovery assistances to victims of fast onset or other disasters of national concern;
7. Whenever the level of the stand-by capacity is too low to allow timely and appropriate response against fast onset or disasters of national concern, upon approval of the government, to bridge the gap by requesting for and receiving any form of assistance from domestic and foreign sources;
8. When there is a threat of disaster or occurrence of disaster, in cooperation with concerned bodies, to take appropriate and timely measures before, during or after a disaster; follow-up and coordinate the intervention;
9. Mobilize, allocate and disperse resources to beneficiary regions for the implementation of Food Security Programme aimed at attaining food security of chronically food insecure rural households; follow-up and ensure proper utilization of the resource; in cooperation with Regional States and other concerned bodies, make the programme effective;
10. Direct and coordinate the National Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Fund and the National Food Security Reserve;
11. Ensure, coordinate and provide support aimed at mainstreaming of disaster risk management in relevant line ministries and work processes;
12. Provide capacity building support and coordinate Regional States in order to strengthen and enhance the effectiveness of Disaster Management and Food Security Programme related activities;
13. Coordinate, follow-up, and supervise activities of non-governmental organizations engaged in disaster prevention and food security programme;
14. Own property, enter into contracts, sue and be sued in its own name;
15. Carry out such other activities as would enhance the attainment of its objectives.

Contact Info

Nifas Silk Lafto Sub City Beside Nifas Silk Vocational School, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, P.O. Box 5686. Tel: 251- 1 524259/524272. Fax: 251-01-514788.

National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC)

Next to drought, flood is one of the major natural hazards in Ethiopia which causes significant damages to peoples’ lives and livelihoods. The objective of this flood alert is twofold, (1) to create community awareness about the risk of floods and its impact on lives and livelihoods, and (2) to alert responsible Government bodies, operational partners and communities to take the necessary preventive and mitigation measures. This alert message was prepared based on the recently disseminated belg/gu weather outlook by National Metrological Agency (NMA) and it will cover the period from April to May 2020. .

Policy interventions in the energy sector target energy consumed by all sectors. Investments in the transport sector can contribute to reducing the demand for petroleum through leapfrogging to green mobility solutions, including e-mobility, railways and non-motorized transport. This mitigation contribution does not yet include clean energy exports to neighboring countries, which are projected to reach more than 5,000 MW/year once the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is connected to the grid. This could represent an additional significant mitigation potential of several Mt CO2eq per year.

The policy interventions in the energy sector predominantly consist of fuel switches or the adoption of low-carbon technologies, e.g., improved cookstoves or electric vehicles in individual and collective transport. The widespread use of biomass for energy services in Ethiopia’s socioeconomic context, in which most of the population relies on biomass for basic energy services, particularly for cooking, is an important source of emissions for which international GHG accounting rules lack clear direction and potentially lead to under-representing related emissions.

Multi-hazard early warning systems in Ethiopia

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

Five countries are featured in the Global status of multi-hazard early warning systems 2024 report that demonstrate national efforts. Each case study includes details of the key institutions involved in MHEWS at the national level as well as the legislative frameworks and national plans that can support MHEWS.

National context

 Ethiopia is an LDC and LLDC in East Africa. Ethiopia’s climate is traditionally divided into three zones: Dega, with its alpine vegetated cool zones; Woina Dega, which is temperate, and Qola, which is hot and has both tropical and arid regions. Ethiopia is exposed and vulnerable to climate-related hazards, most notably drought and flooding. Other extremes, such as increased temperature and erratic rainfall, have been experienced more frequently and intensely in recent times. It is estimated that floods affect about 250,000 people annually and cause extensive damage to buildings (approximately $ 200 million) and cropland (approximately $ 3.5 million). Drought is a common hazard, with more than 19 periods of widespread and severe food shortages recorded in the past 100 years. On average, about 1.5 million people are affected by drought each year, but this number can be higher in dry years. 

Highlights and successes 

At the regional and international levels, Ethiopia has made meaningful steps towards increasing resilience to climate change and extreme weather events while simultaneously increasing the capacity of local actors to do the same. Recent examples include the approval of A Roadmap for Multi-Hazard, Impact-Based Early Warning Early Action System 2023 -2030 (Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission, 2022) and its costed implementation plan, along with the launch of the Early Warning for All (EW4All) coordination mechanisms. One such mechanism, the National Early Warning Technical Working Group (NEWSTWG), has the sole purpose of coordinating, aligning and connecting all Early Warning and Early Action (EWEA) initiatives to ensure that the overarching EW4All ambitions are met. 

Recently, the Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission (EDRMC) has taken the lead in coordinating several Anticipatory Action (AA) initiatives. The Impact-Based Forecasting Model, developed by the Ethiopian Red Cross Society (ERCS)

with support from the Netherlands Red Cross, is a notable example of an innovative approach to disaster preparedness and response. This model has been operational for four years, providing valuable insights and actionable data to mitigate the impacts of natural disasters. A significant achievement in 2023 was the finalization of the Anticipatory Action Plan (AAP) for drought in the Somali region, with support from WFP (WFP, 2024). Due to be implemented ahead of the March-April-May 2024 season, the AAP builds on the EAP developed by the ERCS. WFP has since made progress in other regions, such as Oromia and the south, by establishing regional technical working groups (TWGs) and aiming to implement anticipatory actions with a one-month lead time. The EAP has benefited from the active participation of key organizations at national and international levels (e.g. the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute and OCHA). Their collaborative efforts have significantly enhanced the effectiveness and impact of the EAP, strengthening disaster preparedness and response capabilities. 

Key stakeholders: 

EDRMC is the formal focal government institution responsible for coordinating disaster response, risk management, preventive measures and recovery programmes. The NEWSTWG is chaired by the Head of Lead Executive Office of the National Early Warning and Response Coordination Centre (NEWRCC) at the EDRMC, which convenes all actors in the EWEA continuum with participation from the United Nations, NGOs, line ministries (including the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute and the Hydrology Directorate of the Ethiopian Ministry of Water and Energy) as well as the ERCS.

Platforms, policies and plans: 

The recently approved revised policy of the National Policy and Strategy on Disaster Risk Management (2024) aims to reduce disaster risks and potential damage caused by a disaster through a comprehensive and coordinated DRM system in the context of sustainable development and includes several policy issues, including DRM and EWS.

Multi-Hazard Impact Based Early Warning Early Action System (MH-IB-EWEAS) Roadmap and its implementation plan. 

Activities and projects: 

Various partners in Ethiopia have MHEWS initiatives to scale up EWEA, including: 

WHCA (see Box 6 in section 3.1.1). 

CREWS Horn of Africa (see Box 4 in section 3.1.1). 

SOFF (see Box 14 in section 3.1.1). 

One WaSH National Programme, which ensures universal access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) through an integrated sector-wide approach (World Bank, 2024). 

Strengthen Ethiopia’s Adaptive Safety Net project, which aims to “expand geographic coverage and enhance service delivery of Ethiopia’s adaptive rural safety net to improve the well-being of extremely poor and vulnerable households in drought prone communities”.

Several projects have incorporated the MH-IB-EWEA system and its roll-out and implementation into their project frameworks, for example the Lowland Resilience Project, which aims to bolster resilience across eight regions and Dire Dawa City, and the USAID DRM Activity, which integrates critical preparedness and response measures into the DRM cycle and underscores the importance of proactive EWEA strategies in mitigating risks and enhancing the country’s capacity to respond effectively to emergencies. 

Anticipatory action initiatives led by WFP, OCHA, World Vision, the Catholic Relief Services Joint Emergency Operations Programme and the ERCS have mobilized resources and are actively implementing projects that align with the MHEWS road map’s priority action areas. These initiatives reflect a strong commitment to proactive DRM strategies, ensuring that communities are better prepared for potential hazards.

The SWAN Consortium, spearheaded by Save the Children UK, has also aligned its anticipatory action programme with the MHEWS priority areas. 

Ethiopia is also receiving financial and technical support to develop national project proposals through the Multi-country Project Advancing EW4All project (see Box 41). 

Challenges and gaps 

Key challenges and gaps persist in the scaleup of EWEA in Ethiopia. They include the lack of harmonization in strategies and practice, lack of enhanced knowledge and information management systems, inadequate funding, limited and mostly old risk knowledge information,141 limited skills and knowledge, limited coordination between line ministries and all actors across the EWS value chain.

The Ethiopian Meteorological Institute and the Hydrology Directorate have good forecasting capacities and score higher on a range of measures than both the global and regional averages of the assessed countries featured within the dashboard (see Figure 4.2). Despite relatively high numbers of automatic hydrometeorological stations, few report internationally and maintenance is challenging due to a shortage of funds and challenging topography, especially for hydrological monitoring. In addition, while it has been initiated, there is a need to embed the impact-based forecasting approach and more importantly, to transform weather forecasts into actionable warning messages. 

Another challenge is a lack of coordination at the operational level of the entire EWEA value cycle, from the generation of risk-informed early warnings to communication and dissemination of early actions from the federal level to the most at-risk communities. There have also been major gaps in coordination and alignment between government-led early warnings and the anticipatory action initiatives led by humanitarian and development actors, resulting in a duplication of efforts and resources, especially in relation to the communication and dissemination of warnings and actions to be taken. A lack of exercises, drills and simulations also means that there have so far been few opportunities to practise a coordinated response to warnings. 

Community participation in design and decisionmaking for woreda- and community-based early warning response has often been limited. Furthermore, the lack of threshold-activated early action protocols for response, evacuation and recovery activities has led to delays in preparedness and the early action required to save the lives and livelihoods of the most vulnerable. Where plans do exist, these need to be reviewed continuously and improvements made, especially where events are missed, such as the flooding of the Shebelle River. This was not detected by the GloFAS and as a result, anticipatory action was not triggered (WFP, 2024). 

Lessons learned and good practices 

Lessons and good practices that are relevant to the MHEWS implementation include the following: Strengthening the use of risk profiles for EWEA is of paramount importance in response to the changing climate and hence changing risks. Increased coordination and partnership among stakeholders are necessary across the EWEA value cycle.

CREWS in Ethiopia 

The CREWS project in Ethiopia, as part of the CREWS Horn of Africa regional project (see Box 4 in section 3.1.1), supports capacity-building for regional and national entities to produce and use climate, weather and hydrological services, including MHEWS. Key partners in Ethiopia include the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute, the Ministry of Water and Energy and the EDRMC. 

The project applies an inclusive, people-centred approach to involve refugees, persons with disabilities and remote communities in the design and development of EWS.

Since the launch of EW4All in Ethiopia in August 2023, capacity-building activities for impact-based early warning and disaster preparedness have been initiated, including training events to empower local institutions and communities to better understand and utilize early warning information. Knowledge exchange workshops on flood forecasting and early warning with international experts have also been organized and complement the activities and outputs of the Ethiopia Flood Management Project and the World Bank’s Integrated Disaster Risk Management Project. In addition, enhancements have been made to data management systems and observational networks and there has been support for the development of forecast-based financing mechanisms to enable the rapid deployment of resources in anticipation of disasters. 

Cycles of multiple, often overlapping crises have severely weakened communities’ ability to cope in Ethiopia. These crises are primarily driven by the convergence of four major factors: climate crises (flood and drought), armed conflicts, diseases and economic shocks. Dealing with this situation requires effective collaboration between stakeholders to pool resources and coordinate responses; clear, timely and context-specific communication to ensure that communities understand and act on warnings; strengthening of communitybased disaster preparedness; establishing supportive policies and institutional frameworks to enable EWEA; and securing financial investments to necessary to sustain these systems.

SOFF in Ethiopia 

To be GBON-compliant, Ethiopia is required to run and consistently report observations from 29 GBON surface weather stations and five upper-air stations. Currently, Ethiopia reports only 16 GBON manual surface weather stations and does not have an active upper-air network. $ 9.9M of funding was approved in March 2024 to enable the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute to upgrade 16 existing surface and two upper-air stations, install 13 new surface and three upper-air stations, and build human and ICT capability to enable Ethiopia to fulfil the GBON requirement. Importantly for long term sustainability, these investments are aligned with the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute’s 10-year plan (2020-2029). The plan and business plan act as a guideline for the establishmentRelated links

• Global status of multi-hazard early warning systems 2024

Download some documents on Ethiopia

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1ZykEJFxFKyfxgO9qoFtZhDcCzspU9d9y?usp=sharing