Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Georgia

Georgia is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its mountainous terrain, active seismic setting, flood- and landslide-prone river basins, Black Sea coastal exposure, glacier-fed hydrology, dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture and hydropower, and concentration of settlements, roads, tourism assets, and public infrastructure in valleys, mountain slopes, and coastal zones. Georgia faces major risks from earthquakes, floods, flash floods, landslides, mudflows, snow avalanches, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, hailstorms, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, riverbank erosion, glacier retreat, and climate-sensitive health impacts. GFDRR identifies Georgia’s population and economy as exposed to both earthquakes and floods, with earthquakes representing the higher-impact but lower-probability risk. (PreventionWeb)

Georgia is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its mountainous terrain, active seismic setting, glacier-fed river systems, flood- and landslide-prone valleys, Black Sea coastal exposure, water-resource constraints, climate-sensitive agriculture, hydropower dependence, and exposed transport and tourism infrastructure. The country faces major risks from earthquakes, floods, flash floods, landslides, mudflows, snow avalanches, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, hailstorms, glacier retreat, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, water scarcity, agricultural losses, and climate-sensitive health impacts. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through hotter and drier summers, wetter winters, more extreme rainfall, increased flood and landslide risk, drought stress, coastal erosion, altered hydrological regimes, and growing pressure on livelihoods, infrastructure, ecosystems, energy, tourism, public health, and vulnerable mountain, rural, urban, and coastal communities. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, flood and landslide risk reduction, earthquake-safe infrastructure, drought and water-resource management, climate-resilient agriculture, Black Sea coastal adaptation, resilient transport corridors, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation is essential to reduce losses and protect Georgia’s development gains.

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Georgia’s principal hazards include earthquakes, floods, landslides, mudflows, snow avalanches, droughts, wildfires, hail, strong winds, heat stress, and coastal hazards. The 2025 Georgia Country Climate and Development Report notes that the country faces a complex mix of natural and climate-related hazards, including floods, landslides, droughts, wildfires, and earthquakes, and that these hazards threaten lives, livelihoods, infrastructure, agricultural productivity, energy security, and trade connectivity. (PreventionWeb)

Disaster exposure is spatially differentiated. The Greater and Lesser Caucasus mountain regions face landslides, mudflows, avalanches, floods, glacial hazards, road disruption, and earthquakes. The Rioni, Mtkvari, Alazani, Enguri, Iori, Khrami-Ktsia, Supsa, Natanebi, Kintrishi, Chorokhi-Acharistskhali, and other river basins face flood and erosion risks. The eastern regions are more exposed to drought, water scarcity, soil degradation, irrigation stress, and heat. The Black Sea coastal zone, including Adjara, Guria, Samegrelo-Zemo Svaneti, Poti, Batumi, Kobuleti, and surrounding lowlands, faces coastal erosion, flooding, storm surge, waterlogging, landslides, and pressure on tourism and transport infrastructure.

2. Climate change as a risk multiplier

Climate change is increasing Georgia’s exposure to compound risks. The 2025 CCDR reports that climate-related and natural hazards have caused more than US$1.2 billion in damages in recent decades; around 9% of the population is directly exposed to a 100-year flood, and 19% is exposed to drought, with eastern regions particularly affected by water scarcity and soil degradation. It also notes that nearly half of Georgia’s dams, more than one-third of telecom assets, and about one-third of power infrastructure are exposed to flooding, landslides, or seismic risks. (PreventionWeb)

Projected climate change will likely bring hotter, drier summers and wetter winters, increasing stress on agriculture, water systems, roads, energy infrastructure, ecosystems, and settlements. These shifts can create cascading impacts: drought can reduce water availability and agricultural productivity, while intense rainfall can trigger floods, mudflows, landslides, erosion, and infrastructure damage. (PreventionWeb)

3. Flood, flash-flood, landslide, and mudflow vulnerability

Flooding is one of Georgia’s most frequent hydrometeorological hazards. UNDP notes that flooding is often caused by heavy rainfall or melting glaciers, and that Georgia’s climate adaptation programme covers almost all disaster-risk zones in the country’s 11 largest river basins, aiming to protect 1.7 million people, or more than 40% of the population, from hydrometeorological hazards. (Adaptation UNDP)

Landslides and mudflows are especially serious in mountainous areas, steep valleys, road corridors, and degraded catchments. High rainfall, snowmelt, unstable slopes, deforestation, road cutting, riverbank erosion, and unplanned settlement expansion can produce rapid-onset disasters that damage houses, schools, clinics, bridges, roads, irrigation systems, hydropower assets, and agricultural land. UNDP reports that Georgia has developed a unified methodology for modelling hazards including floods, landslides, mudflows, snow avalanches, strong winds, hail, and droughts, and has prepared hazard and risk maps for seven hazards and multi-hazard maps across 11 river basins. (UNDP)

4. Earthquake and cascading-risk vulnerability

Earthquake risk remains central to Georgia’s multi-hazard profile. GFDRR’s disaster-risk profile identifies earthquakes as the hazard with the greater potential for a high-impact event, although floods occur more frequently. (PreventionWeb)

Earthquake vulnerability is significant for urban settlements, schools, hospitals, housing, roads, bridges, hydropower facilities, dams, pipelines, energy systems, cultural heritage sites, and public buildings. In mountainous areas, earthquakes can trigger cascading impacts such as landslides, rockfalls, avalanches, road blockages, dam or hydropower disruption, and delayed emergency response.

5. Drought, water security, and agricultural vulnerability

Drought and water scarcity are growing concerns, particularly in eastern Georgia and agricultural regions dependent on irrigation, seasonal precipitation, snowmelt, rivers, reservoirs, and groundwater. The CCDR highlights drought exposure affecting 19% of the population and identifies eastern regions as particularly affected by water scarcity and soil degradation. (PreventionWeb)

Agriculture is highly climate-sensitive because many rural households depend on rainfed and irrigated production, orchards, vineyards, livestock, pastures, and local water systems. Drought, heat stress, hail, floods, pests, erosion, and water shortages can reduce yields, damage orchards and vineyards, weaken livestock systems, and increase rural income insecurity. Georgia’s updated NDC identifies agriculture, tourism, water resources, forestry, and ecosystems as key sectors for adaptation planning. (PreventionWeb)

6. Black Sea coastal vulnerability

Georgia’s Black Sea coastal zone is exposed to coastal flooding, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge, waterlogging, river flooding, landslides, sediment disruption, and tourism-related land-use pressure. A World Bank assessment reports that Georgia’s coastal zone has about 554,700 people, generates around 20% of national GDP, and extends along approximately 120 km of coastline. It also estimates that, without adaptation, losses to the tourism sector could reach about US$2 billion by 2030. (World Bank)

The same coastal assessment identifies key risks including changes in precipitation patterns, increased drought and flood events, sea-level rise, coastal erosion, damage to housing and infrastructure, spread of plant pests and diseases affecting farming and forestry, and rising temperatures and heatwaves. It also identifies coastal flooding, urban flooding, fluvial flooding, coastal erosion, soil and forest degradation, and water pollution as major sources of environmental degradation in coastal Georgia. (World Bank)

7. Glacier retreat, hydropower, and mountain livelihoods

Georgia’s mountain regions are sensitive to glacier retreat, snowpack changes, changing runoff regimes, slope instability, and extreme rainfall. Glacier and snowmelt changes can affect river flow timing, water availability, hydropower production, irrigation, ecosystems, tourism, and downstream flood risk. The World Bank/ADB climate profile notes that rapid glacier retreat is expected and may alter regional hydrological regimes, increasing flood risk before eventually reducing glacier-fed water availability. (Climate Change Knowledge Portal)

Mountain communities are especially vulnerable where livelihoods depend on livestock, forests, smallholder farming, tourism, mountain roads, and seasonal access. Floods, landslides, avalanches, and road damage can isolate villages and delay emergency response, health access, markets, and recovery.

8. Sector-specific vulnerability summary

9. Social vulnerability

The most vulnerable groups include smallholder farmers, livestock-dependent households, mountain communities, Black Sea coastal communities, low-income urban residents, elderly people, children, people with disabilities, women-headed households, internally displaced persons, communities living near rivers or unstable slopes, and households dependent on climate-sensitive agriculture, tourism, forests, or informal livelihoods.

Vulnerability is highest where climate exposure overlaps with poverty, weak housing, limited insurance, aging infrastructure, poor drainage, limited road access, dependence on irrigation or rainfed farming, and insufficient last-mile early warning. Mountain and rural communities may face compounded vulnerability because floods, landslides, avalanches, and snow-related hazards can physically isolate them during emergencies.

10. Priority resilience needs

Georgia’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, flood and landslide forecasting, mudflow and avalanche risk mapping, earthquake preparedness, drought monitoring, climate-resilient agriculture, water-resource management, resilient roads and bridges, coastal-zone adaptation, hydropower risk screening, forest and watershed restoration, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation.