Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Namibia

Namibia is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its arid and semi-arid climate, recurrent droughts, structural water scarcity, high rainfall variability, limited perennial surface water, dependence on groundwater and transboundary rivers, fragile rangelands, and reliance on rainfed agriculture, livestock, biodiversity, tourism, and climate-sensitive rural livelihoods. The country faces major risks from drought, water scarcity, extreme heat, flash floods, riverine floods, desertification, land degradation, wildfires, food insecurity, livestock losses, malnutrition, public-health stress, coastal risks, fisheries impacts, infrastructure disruption, and rising fiscal pressure from repeated disaster response. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through higher temperatures, more frequent hot days, longer and more severe droughts, localized heavy rainfall events, declining rangeland and crop productivity, increasing water demand, ecosystem degradation, and growing risks to food security, livelihoods, health, infrastructure, biodiversity, and vulnerable rural and urban communities. Strengthening drought early warning, impact-based forecasting, water-security planning, climate-resilient agriculture, livestock and rangeland management, flood-risk reduction, ecosystem-based adaptation, health and nutrition surveillance, disaster risk financing, and shock-responsive social protection is essential to reduce losses and protect Namibia’s development gains.

Namibia is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks because it is one of the driest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, with extremely variable rainfall, recurrent droughts, high evaporation, structural water scarcity, dependence on rainfed agriculture and livestock, fragile rangelands, and exposure to floods, extreme heat, wildfires, land degradation, desertification, epidemics, and coastal risks. The World Bank climate-risk profile identifies Namibia’s key hazards as droughts, flooding, water scarcity, extreme heat, and wildfires, while recent adaptation planning documents describe a climate characterized by regular dry spells, persistent droughts, and sporadic severe flooding. (Climate Change Knowledge Portal)

Strong country-profile paragraph

Namibia is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks, particularly drought, water scarcity, extreme heat, rainfall variability, flash floods, riverine floods, desertification, land degradation, rangeland degradation, wildfires, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, biodiversity stress, food insecurity, livestock losses, public-health risks, and infrastructure disruption. Its vulnerability is shaped by arid and semi-arid conditions, limited perennial surface water, high dependence on groundwater and transboundary river basins, reliance on rainfed subsistence agriculture and livestock, poverty and inequality in rural areas, fragile dryland ecosystems, and high exposure of water, agriculture, health, biodiversity, tourism, settlements, and public finance to climate shocks. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, more frequent hot days, longer and more severe droughts, heavier localized rainfall events, increasing pressure on water systems, declining rangeland productivity, crop and livestock losses, ecosystem degradation, and growing risks to food security, livelihoods, health, infrastructure, and vulnerable rural and urban communities.

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Namibia’s main climate and disaster risks include drought, dry spells, water scarcity, heatwaves, flash floods, riverine floods, wildfires, soil erosion, land degradation, desertification, epidemics, and localized coastal hazards. The Green Climate Fund notes that Namibia’s maximum temperatures and days above 35°C have increased over the past 40 years, and that the country experienced intense droughts in 2013, 2015, and 2019, with 2019 described as the driest year in 90 years. (Green Climate Fund)

The country’s risk profile varies geographically. The north-central and north-eastern regions face recurrent flooding, drought, water stress, crop losses, livestock disease risks, and pressure on rural WASH services. The Kunene, Omaheke, Hardap, //Kharas, and Erongo regions are highly exposed to drought, rangeland degradation, livestock losses, water shortages, and food insecurity. The coastal zone, including Walvis Bay, Swakopmund, Lüderitz and nearby settlements, faces risks from coastal erosion, fog-dependent ecosystem shifts, sea-level rise, storm surge, port exposure, and saline intrusion.

2. Climate change as a development risk multiplier

Climate change is a major development risk for Namibia because it affects water resources, agriculture, livestock, food security, biodiversity, ecotourism, coastal-zone management, human settlements, trade, industry, and public finance. The GCF readiness proposal notes that around 67% of Namibia’s population lives in rural areas and depends on rainfed subsistence agriculture, with women disproportionately affected in many rural livelihood systems because of male migration to urban areas. (Green Climate Fund)

Namibia’s vulnerability is also fiscal and institutional. Severe droughts require large relief programmes, emergency water support, livestock interventions, food assistance, and public spending on recovery. The 2023–24 drought caused sharp declines in crop yields and worsened food insecurity, while IMF analysis identifies Namibia’s arid climate as a key source of vulnerability to future weather shocks, especially droughts and rainfall variability. (IMF eLibrary)

3. Drought, water scarcity, and dryland vulnerability

Drought is Namibia’s defining climate risk. Recurrent drought reduces crop production, degrades rangelands, weakens livestock body condition, lowers household income, increases food prices, reduces water availability, and forces households to adopt negative coping strategies such as selling livestock and productive assets. ACAPS reported that Namibia’s food-insecure population facing IPC Phase 3 or worse was projected to rise from about 390,000 people in the 2022–23 lean season to about 1.26 million people in the 2024–25 lean season, illustrating the scale of drought-driven livelihood stress.

Water scarcity is a structural challenge. A 2026 water-sector adaptation assessment describes Namibia as the driest country in Sub-Saharan Africa, with extremely low and variable rainfall, limited perennial surface water, strong dependence on transboundary basins, and rising demand from population growth, agriculture, and urbanization. It also notes that agriculture is the largest water user, including irrigation and livestock production, while rural water schemes are vulnerable to maintenance limitations, salinity increases, and interruptions during prolonged dry conditions.

4. Agriculture, livestock, and food-security vulnerability

Agriculture and livestock are among Namibia’s most climate-sensitive sectors. Rainfed crop production is vulnerable to delayed rains, false starts to the season, mid-season dry spells, heat stress, pests, crop failure, soil erosion, and localized flooding. Livestock systems are vulnerable to pasture decline, water shortages, heat stress, animal disease, market shocks, and forced destocking during drought.

The 2025 IPC update reported that Namibia’s food security had improved after better 2024/25 rainfall, but still estimated about 456,000 people in IPC Phase 3 or above from July to September 2025, with a projected increase to 612,000 people during the October 2025–March 2026 lean season. The same analysis identified Kunene, Kavango West, and Zambezi as remaining in Crisis conditions during the current period. (ipcinfo.org)

5. Flood, flash-flood, and drainage vulnerability

Although Namibia is arid, floods are a recurrent and damaging hazard. Flooding affects the north-central regions through seasonal rainfall, overflowing oshanas, riverine flooding, poor drainage, and infrastructure exposure. The north-eastern river systems, including the Zambezi, Kavango/Okavango, and Cuvelai-linked systems, can generate riverine floods that affect settlements, schools, clinics, roads, crops, livestock, and water points.

Flood risk is highly localized and often compound. Heavy rainfall after drought can produce rapid runoff because degraded soils and sparse vegetation absorb less water. Floods can damage crops and infrastructure while also contaminating water sources, increasing diarrhoeal disease risk, disrupting education, and delaying market access.

6. Heatwaves, wildfires, and public-health vulnerability

Rising temperatures are increasing heat stress risks for people, livestock, crops, wildlife, workers, and infrastructure. Heat stress can worsen dehydration, reduce labour productivity, increase water demand, affect outdoor workers, reduce livestock productivity, and increase risks for older persons, children, people with chronic illnesses, and people living in poorly ventilated housing. Namibia’s adaptation planning documents highlight increasing maximum temperatures and more days above 35°C, with human health among the key sectors vulnerable to climate change. (Green Climate Fund)

Wildfire risk is also important, especially in savanna, woodland, and rangeland areas where dry biomass, high temperatures, wind, and human ignition sources can generate large fires. Wildfires can damage grazing, biodiversity, tourism assets, carbon stocks, community infrastructure, and wildlife habitats, especially where drought has already weakened ecosystems.

7. Land degradation, desertification, and biodiversity vulnerability

Namibia’s dryland ecosystems are highly sensitive to rainfall variability, overgrazing, bush encroachment, soil erosion, invasive species, wildfires, and unsustainable land use. Drought and heat reduce vegetation cover, expose soils, increase erosion, and reduce rangeland productivity. Land degradation then feeds back into climate vulnerability by lowering infiltration, reducing soil moisture, weakening livestock systems, and increasing runoff during intense rainfall.

Biodiversity and ecotourism are also climate-sensitive. Namibia’s deserts, savannas, wetlands, coastal ecosystems, wildlife conservancies, and national parks depend on water availability, habitat condition, and ecosystem connectivity. Drought can increase wildlife mortality and human-wildlife conflict by concentrating livestock, wildlife, and people around shrinking water and grazing resources. Reuters reported in 2024 that Namibia planned to cull hundreds of wild animals, including elephants, as drought depleted food reserves and intensified pressure on grazing land and water. (Reuters)

8. Coastal-zone and marine vulnerability

Namibia’s Atlantic coast is shaped by the Namib Desert, the Benguela Current, fog-dependent ecosystems, ports, fisheries, tourism assets, coastal settlements, and mining-related infrastructure. Coastal vulnerability includes sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge, saline intrusion, port disruption, marine ecosystem shifts, coastal infrastructure exposure, and fisheries stress.

Although Namibia’s coastline is less cyclone-exposed than many tropical countries, coastal risk is still important because ports, roads, tourism facilities, desalination infrastructure, fisheries infrastructure, and settlements are economically strategic. Climate-related changes in ocean temperature, oxygen levels, acidification, and marine productivity can affect fisheries, employment, export earnings, and coastal livelihoods.

9. Water, WASH, nutrition, and health vulnerability

Drought has major WASH and health consequences. ACAPS reported that the drought severely affected access to clean water, worsening Namibia’s already fragile WASH situation; it also noted major urban-rural disparities in drinking-water and sanitation coverage, with rural sanitation coverage far lower than urban coverage.

Nutrition risks are closely linked to drought, food prices, rural poverty, and livelihood losses. ACAPS reported worsening food insecurity and malnutrition during the drought period, including increased undernourishment and acute malnutrition among children under five. Drought also increases risks of diarrhoeal disease by reducing water availability and hygiene practices, while floods can contaminate water sources and sanitation systems.

10. Sector-specific vulnerability summary

11. Social vulnerability

The most vulnerable groups include smallholder farmers, communal-area livestock keepers, pastoralist households, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, people with chronic illnesses, marginalized communities, informal urban households, rural households with limited water access, and communities in drought-prone, flood-prone, or remote areas.

Vulnerability is highest where climate exposure overlaps with poverty, limited livestock assets, low savings, poor market access, limited irrigation, weak WASH services, limited insurance, poor road access, and dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods. Rural and communal areas are especially exposed because drought affects both food production and income-generating assets at the same time.

12. Priority resilience needs

Namibia’s resilience agenda should prioritize drought early warning, impact-based forecasting, climate-resilient water systems, groundwater monitoring, demand management, rangeland restoration, drought-resilient agriculture, livestock-risk management, flood-risk reduction, climate-health surveillance, ecosystem-based adaptation, wildfire management, disaster risk financing, and shock-responsive social protection.

© UNESCO

9 June 2021

Last update:20 April 2023

Directorate of Disaster Risk Management (DDRM) in the Office of the Prime Minister, Namibia https://opm.gov.na

Climate change continues to affect SADC Members States and increase risks of natural disasters emanating from climate related cyclones, storms, torrential rains and floods in the region.

Namibia is no exception, and is equally vulnerable to a range of natural disasters such as drought, food insecurity and flood events. Hence, a national approach to manage the risks is appropriate and necessary to create a local culture of disaster reduction including disaster prevention, mitigation, preparedness, recovery and rehabilitation, is inevitable.

In Namibia, this function is delegated to the Directorate Disaster Risk Management (DDRM) in the Office of the Prime Minister.

Worth noting is that, disaster risk management is a continuous and integrated multi-sectoral and multi-disciplinary process of planning and implementation of disaster risk management measures.

The mandate of the Directorate is to strengthen and coordinate disaster risk management activities in Namibia; facilitate the establishment of coordinated system of disaster risk management; provide support to DDRM Committees at regional, constituencies, settlement and local authorities in Namibia and to serve as the Secretariat to the National Disaster Risk Management Committee (NDRMC). The NDRMC and DDRM Committees have been established at government structures.

Namibia has made significant progress in respect of the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 -2030 and National Disaster Risk Management Plan of 2011 (under review).

Some documents on Namibia