Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Libya

Libya is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its arid and semi-arid climate, severe water scarcity, dependence on non-renewable groundwater, coastal concentration of people and infrastructure, rapid urban growth, degraded ecosystems, fragile public infrastructure, and governance challenges linked to political fragmentation. The country faces major risks from droughts, water scarcity, extreme heat, flash floods, coastal flooding, sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion, desertification, sand and dust storms, land degradation, agricultural losses, public-health risks, and infrastructure failure.

ibya is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its arid and semi-arid climate, severe water scarcity, dependence on non-renewable groundwater, coastal concentration of people and infrastructure, fragile public services, and conflict-affected institutional capacity. The country faces growing risks from droughts, extreme heat, chronic water scarcity, flash floods, coastal flooding, sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion, desertification, sand and dust storms, land degradation, crop and livestock losses, and climate-sensitive health impacts. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, rainfall variability, more extreme rainfall events, declining groundwater security, coastal inundation, salinization of aquifers, agricultural stress, infrastructure damage, and increasing pressure on health, livelihoods, food security, water security, and vulnerable communities. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, flash-flood and dam-risk monitoring, drought and groundwater management, climate-resilient agriculture, coastal protection, urban drainage, heat-health planning, disaster risk financing, and locally led preparedness is essential to reduce losses and protect Libya’s development gains.

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Libya’s climate-risk profile is dominated by water extremes: long-term aridity and drought on one side, and destructive flash floods on the other. The World Bank climate profile reports that Libya has only about 98 cubic meters of renewable freshwater resources per person per year, placing it far below the water-scarcity threshold. This makes water scarcity a central national risk for households, agriculture, livestock, cities, industry, and public health. (Climate Change Knowledge Portal)

The country’s hazard profile includes drought, extreme heat, flash floods, coastal flooding, sea-level rise, sand and dust storms, desertification, and localized seismic exposure. Libya’s 2025 climate risk profile presents both rapid-onset hazards and slow-onset climate changes, including rising temperatures, rainfall variability, and coastal risks. (PreventionWeb)

2. Climate change as a risk multiplier

Climate change is expected to intensify Libya’s existing development vulnerabilities by increasing temperatures, worsening water stress, increasing rainfall variability, and raising the risk of extreme rainfall and flash-flood events. In a country where settlements, roads, drainage systems, dams, water networks, health facilities, and coastal infrastructure are already under stress, climate hazards can quickly become cascading crises.

The 2023 Storm Daniel disaster demonstrated the scale of Libya’s compound risk. The World Bank, European Union, and United Nations reported that the catastrophic flooding affected about 1.5 million people, around 22% of Libya’s population, and that recovery and reconstruction needs were estimated at US$1.8 billion. (World Bank)

3. Water scarcity and drought vulnerability

Water scarcity is Libya’s most strategic climate vulnerability. The country is among the most water-scarce in the world, and UNDP identifies water scarcity as one of the greatest emerging threats facing Libya. (UNDP)

Libya’s agricultural and livestock systems rely heavily on scarce and often non-renewable groundwater. UNOPS notes that around 90% of Libya is desert, only about 1% of land is arable, and agricultural and livestock sectors rely almost entirely on non-renewable groundwater resources. (UNOPS)

Key water-related risks include:

Risk driver	Main impact pathway
Groundwater depletion	Reduced long-term water availability for households, farms, livestock, and cities
Drought and rainfall decline	Reduced recharge, crop stress, livestock losses, and rural livelihood pressure
Saltwater intrusion	Contamination of coastal aquifers and reduced water quality
Urban water demand	Rising pressure on already fragile supply systems
Infrastructure damage	Disruption to wells, pipelines, reservoirs, pumps, and distribution systems

4. Flash-flood and storm-risk vulnerability

Although Libya is predominantly arid, intense rainfall can generate destructive flash floods, especially in wadis, coastal catchments, mountainous areas, urban drainage systems, and settlements downstream of dams or embankments. Storm Daniel showed how extreme rainfall, aging infrastructure, poor maintenance, and weak emergency preparedness can combine into catastrophic disaster.

In Derna, heavy rainfall and the failure of upstream dams produced devastating flood flows that destroyed neighborhoods, damaged infrastructure, disrupted services, and caused very large loss of life. The World Bank RDNA describes the 2023 storm and floods as a major climatic and environmental catastrophe for Libya. (World Bank)

Flash-flood risk is especially important for:

Exposure area	Main vulnerabilities
Wadi settlements	Rapid-onset flooding, limited warning time, high casualty risk
Urban areas	Poor drainage, blocked channels, weak stormwater infrastructure
Dams and reservoirs	Aging structures, maintenance gaps, dam-break risk
Roads and bridges	Washouts, isolation of communities, delayed emergency response
Health facilities	Service disruption, damaged access roads, emergency overload
Water systems	Contamination, pipeline damage, pumping-station failure

5. Coastal vulnerability and sea-level rise

Libya’s population, cities, ports, roads, public services, energy assets, and economic activities are heavily concentrated along the Mediterranean coast. This creates high exposure to sea-level rise, coastal flooding, erosion, saltwater intrusion, storm surge, and damage to coastal infrastructure.

Coastal cities such as Tripoli, Benghazi, Misrata, Derna, Tobruk, Sirte, Zawiya, and Al Khums face different combinations of coastal flooding, drainage stress, infrastructure exposure, and water-supply vulnerability. Saltwater intrusion is especially important because many coastal communities depend on groundwater systems that are already under pressure.

6. Agriculture, livestock, and food-security vulnerability

Agriculture is highly climate-sensitive in Libya because it depends on scarce water, groundwater pumping, irrigation systems, rainfall variability, soil quality, and functioning supply chains. Drought, heat stress, saline water, sandstorms, pests, floods, and water-infrastructure damage can reduce production and increase dependence on food imports.

Key agricultural vulnerabilities include:

Sub-sector	Main climate and hazard risks
Irrigated farming	Groundwater depletion, salinity, high pumping costs, water scarcity
Rainfed agriculture	Rainfall variability, drought, crop failure
Livestock	Heat stress, water scarcity, pasture decline, disease risk
Coastal farming	Saltwater intrusion, storm flooding, soil salinization
Rural livelihoods	Limited alternative income, weak services, fragile markets
Food security	Import dependence, price shocks, domestic production losses

7. Extreme heat, public health, and urban vulnerability

Extreme heat is a growing risk for Libya’s urban and rural populations. Rising temperatures increase heat illness, dehydration, cardiovascular stress, labour-productivity losses, electricity demand, water demand, and pressure on health services.

Urban areas face compound risks from heat, water shortages, poor drainage, flood exposure, damaged infrastructure, and limited public-service reliability. Risks are especially high for low-income households, outdoor workers, older persons, children, people with chronic illness, displaced people, migrants, and communities with limited access to safe water, cooling, health care, and early warning.

8. Desertification, sandstorms, and ecosystem degradation

Libya’s dryland ecosystems are vulnerable to desertification, land degradation, vegetation loss, wind erosion, sand and dust storms, biodiversity decline, and rangeland stress. These risks affect agriculture, livestock, transport, air quality, public health, solar infrastructure, and rural livelihoods.

Sand and dust storms can reduce visibility, disrupt road and air transport, damage equipment, worsen respiratory disease, contaminate water sources, and affect agriculture. Land degradation also reduces natural water retention, increasing runoff and erosion during intense rainfall events.

9. Conflict-sensitive and institutional vulnerability

Libya’s climate vulnerability is intensified by political fragmentation, conflict legacies, weak maintenance of public infrastructure, limited risk-data systems, damaged services, and uneven local capacity. NUPI’s climate, peace, and security analysis notes that Storm Daniel and the Derna disaster exposed severe vulnerability linked to climate hazards, aging infrastructure, and institutional fragmentation. (NUPI)

This means climate adaptation in Libya must be linked with governance strengthening, infrastructure rehabilitation, disaster-risk data systems, local preparedness, transparent reconstruction, and conflict-sensitive service delivery.

10. Sector-specific vulnerability summary

Sector	Main climate and multi-hazard risks
Water resources	Groundwater depletion, drought, salinity intrusion, damaged supply systems, rising demand
Agriculture and livestock	Water scarcity, heat stress, drought, salinity, sandstorms, flood damage
Urban settlements	Flash floods, drainage failure, heat stress, water shortages, infrastructure fragility
Coastal zones	Sea-level rise, coastal flooding, erosion, saltwater intrusion, port and road exposure
Health	Heat illness, waterborne disease after floods, respiratory impacts from dust, disrupted services
Transport infrastructure	Flooded roads, bridge damage, sandstorm disruption, damaged coastal corridors
Energy and industry	Water demand, coastal exposure, heat stress, infrastructure damage
Public finance and recovery	High reconstruction needs, emergency response costs, infrastructure rehabilitation

11. Social vulnerability

The most vulnerable groups include low-income urban households, rural communities, small farmers, pastoralists, coastal communities, displaced people, migrants, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, outdoor workers, and communities living in flood-prone wadis, drought-prone drylands, or poorly serviced urban areas.

Vulnerability is highest where climate exposure overlaps with weak housing, limited access to safe water, low savings, fragile infrastructure, limited insurance, poor drainage, weak health services, and limited access to timely warnings and recovery support.

12. Priority resilience needs

Libya’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, flash-flood forecasting, dam-safety monitoring, drought monitoring, groundwater management, heat-health action planning, coastal inundation warning, climate-resilient agriculture, water-efficient irrigation, resilient drainage, infrastructure rehabilitation, disaster risk financing, and locally led preparedness.

A practical resilience package should include:

Priority area	Key actions
Early warning and anticipatory action	Impact-based warnings for flash floods, drought, heat, sandstorms, coastal flooding, and dam-risk scenarios
Flood-risk management	Wadi flood mapping, dam-safety assessment, drainage upgrading, flood-retention areas, evacuation planning
Water security	Groundwater monitoring, aquifer protection, desalination where viable, leakage reduction, water-demand management
Climate-resilient agriculture	Water-efficient irrigation, drought- and salinity-tolerant crops, livestock water planning, agro-climate advisories
Coastal resilience	Sea-level-rise monitoring, salinity-intrusion control, coastal zoning, protection of ports and coastal infrastructure
Urban resilience	Stormwater drainage, heat-risk planning, resilient health facilities, safe water and sanitation systems
Disaster risk governance	Risk data platforms, local emergency planning, dam and infrastructure maintenance systems
Risk financing and recovery	Contingency finance, insurance mechanisms, transparent reconstruction, resilient recovery planning

The National Center for Emergency, Crisis and Disaster Management is a legal entity with independent financial status. It is affiliated with the Council of Ministers and is headquartered in Tripoli. It may establish branches or offices by decision of the Center’s Director General. The Center was established by Resolution No. 1035 of 2007 and reorganized by Cabinet Resolution No. 527 of 2024.
The Center assumes the necessary powers to “manage all emergencies and crises and reduce the risks of disasters” that may confront the Libyan state internally, in cooperation with all relevant parties, before, during, and after their occurrence. This is achieved through coordination, cooperation, and integration between all national and international efforts to achieve national security stability. The Center is managed by a Director General appointed by a Cabinet decision. The Center undertakes multiple tasks, including proposing national policies and strategies, preparing a national risk register, developing national response plans, establishing an information and communications system for emergencies, crises, and disasters, early warning systems, managing the main operations room, forming specialized crisis response teams, developing training and awareness programs, assessing the readiness of various sectors, proposing the declaration and termination of emergency situations, and contributing to post-disaster recovery efforts.
The Center serves as the national link with all regional and international organizations and bodies whose mandate falls within the field of emergencies, crises, and disasters. It also plays a key role in developing legislation, organizing volunteer work, organizing local and international events, and implementing relevant international commitments.
Through these efforts, the Center seeks to build a comprehensive and effective national system for risk management and enhance resilience to various challenges, in cooperation with all relevant government sectors and specialized international organizations.

Emergency, Crisis and Disaster Management

The center assumes the necessary powers to manage all emergencies and crises and mitigate the risks of disasters that may face Libya internally, in cooperation with all relevant parties before, during, and after such events. This is achieved by enhancing coordination, cooperation, and integration between national and international efforts, with the goal of achieving stability in the country.