Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Lesotho

Lesotho is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its mountainous terrain, highland ecosystems, recurrent droughts, erratic rainfall, flash floods, frost, heavy snowfall, strong winds, land degradation, dependence on rainfed agriculture and livestock, rural poverty, and reliance on water resources for domestic use, agriculture, hydropower and regional water transfers. The country faces major risks from drought, water scarcity, crop failure, livestock losses, rangeland degradation, food insecurity, floods, severe storms, hailstorms, snow-related isolation, soil erosion, public-health stress and infrastructure disruption. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, more frequent hot and dry conditions, reduced runoff and groundwater recharge, heavier localized rainfall events, declining rangeland productivity, increased food insecurity and growing pressure on water security, livelihoods, infrastructure, health and vulnerable mountain communities. Strengthening drought early warning, impact-based forecasting, water-security planning, integrated catchment management, climate-resilient agriculture, livestock and rangeland management, flood-risk reduction, snow and cold-weather preparedness, health and nutrition surveillance, disaster risk financing and shock-responsive social protection is essential to reduce losses and protect Lesotho’s development gains.

Lesotho is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks because it is a small, landlocked, mountainous country with strong dependence on rainfed agriculture, livestock, rangelands, water resources, hydropower, rural livelihoods, and climate-sensitive ecosystems. Its major hazards include drought, water scarcity, floods, flash floods, severe storms, hailstorms, frost, strong winds, heavy snowfall, extreme temperatures, land degradation, soil erosion, desertification, livestock disease, food insecurity, and health risks. The World Bank climate-risk profile identifies Lesotho as exposed to floods, drought, frost, strong winds and heavy snowfall, while GFDRR notes that Lesotho remains vulnerable to recurrent floods and droughts despite its important water resources. (Climate Change Knowledge Portal)

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Lesotho’s risk profile is strongly influenced by its elevation, topography and seasonal climate variability. It is the only country in the world with all of its territory above 1,000 metres, and its ecological zones include lowlands, foothills, mountains and the Senqu River valley. The lowlands and foothills are important for settlement and agriculture, while the mountains are important for grazing, water generation and hydropower potential. (UNDP Adaptation)

The country is exposed to droughts, floods, storms, snowfalls, hailstorms, strong winds and early frost. These hazards affect agriculture, livestock, water systems, rural roads, mountain passes, housing, schools, clinics, markets and public services. UNDRR also identifies Lesotho as a small, landlocked Southern African country with high risk from floods, drought, frost, strong winds and heavy snowfall. (openknowledge.worldbank.org)

2. Climate change as a development risk multiplier

Climate change is a major development risk for Lesotho because it directly affects water resources, agriculture, livestock, food security, hydropower, rural livelihoods, infrastructure, health, ecosystems and public finance. UNDP states that Lesotho is expected to experience shifts toward drier and hotter conditions, with increased intensity and frequency of floods and droughts, especially in the western and northern lowlands. (UNDP Adaptation)

Lesotho’s National Adaptation Plan, submitted in 2025, reinforces the need to integrate adaptation into national and subnational planning, while earlier NAPA work focused on identifying vulnerable communities, livelihoods and urgent adaptation priorities. (UNFCCC) Climate change is therefore not only an environmental concern; it is a structural development risk affecting poverty reduction, food systems, water security, resilient infrastructure and social protection.

3. Drought, water scarcity and dryland vulnerability

Drought is one of Lesotho’s most damaging and recurrent hazards. GFDRR reports that the 2015–16 drought was the most severe on record, while the 2011 floods were the largest in the country since the 1930s, showing that Lesotho faces both drought and flood extremes. (GFDRR)

Drought affects Lesotho through crop failure, pasture decline, reduced livestock body condition, lower wool and mohair productivity, water shortages, declining household income, rising food prices and longer lean seasons. A drought-resilience profile for Lesotho states that drought has become one of the most visible causes of hunger and malnutrition, and that the country is prone to both drought and desertification. It also reports that during the 2019/20 drought, more than a quarter of Lesotho’s population faced severe food insecurity. (CIWA program)

4. Water resources, hydropower and transboundary water vulnerability

Water is one of Lesotho’s most strategic national resources, but it is highly climate-sensitive. The country provides important water resources for domestic use, agriculture, hydropower and regional water transfers, including links to South Africa through the Lesotho Highlands Water Project. GFDRR notes that despite Lesotho’s abundant water resources, it remains vulnerable to regular and recurrent floods and droughts, and that climate models agree on rising mean surface temperatures even though precipitation projections vary. (GFDRR)

Climate change can reduce runoff and groundwater recharge through higher temperatures, increased evaporation, rainfall variability and longer dry spells. UNDP warns that water resources will be negatively affected by reduced precipitation and higher temperatures, leading to increased evaporation losses, reduced runoff and decreased groundwater recharge. (UNDP Adaptation) This creates risks for rural water supply, irrigation, hydropower generation, ecosystem flows, WASH services, livestock watering and regional water-transfer commitments.

5. Agriculture, livestock and food-security vulnerability

Agriculture and livestock are among Lesotho’s most climate-sensitive sectors. Most smallholder production is rainfed, and maize, sorghum, wheat, beans, vegetables, livestock, wool and mohair systems are vulnerable to drought, delayed rains, dry spells, frost, hailstorms, strong winds, floods, snow and pests.

Food insecurity remains a recurring climate-sensitive risk. IPC analysis reported that more than 258,000 rural people, about 17% of the analysed rural population, were in IPC Phase 3 or above between May and September 2025; around 334,000 people, or 22%, were projected to face Crisis-or-worse food insecurity from October 2025 to March 2026. IPC identified dry spells and high temperatures during the critical crop-growth stage, livestock disease, high food prices and reduced planted area as key drivers. (IPC Info)

6. Flood, flash-flood, storm and infrastructure vulnerability

Flooding is a major hazard in Lesotho, especially when intense rainfall affects steep catchments, degraded slopes, poorly protected roads, river crossings, settlements and drainage systems. Floods can damage roads, bridges, culverts, schools, clinics, markets, houses, crops, irrigation systems, water points and sanitation infrastructure.

The mountainous terrain amplifies flood risk because rainfall can move quickly from upland catchments into valleys and lowlands. Where land degradation and overgrazing have reduced vegetation cover, intense rainfall produces more runoff, soil erosion, gullying and sedimentation. This creates a reinforcing cycle: drought weakens soils and vegetation, while intense rainfall then accelerates erosion and flood damage.

7. Snow, frost, cold extremes and mountain-community vulnerability

Unlike many Southern African countries, Lesotho also faces important cold-season hazards, including frost, snowfalls, icy roads and cold stress. Heavy snowfall can isolate mountain communities, close passes, damage roads, disrupt schools and clinics, kill livestock, reduce market access and delay emergency response. Frost and cold snaps can damage crops, weaken livestock and undermine household food security. Official disaster-risk sources identify snowfall, hailstorms, strong winds, localized floods and early frost among Lesotho’s hazards. (PreventionWeb)

These risks are especially serious in highland and remote mountain areas, where roads are exposed, settlements are scattered, emergency access is difficult, and households may have limited savings, feed reserves, heating options and winter preparedness capacity.

8. Land degradation, soil erosion, rangelands and ecosystem vulnerability

Lesotho’s rangelands and catchments are highly vulnerable to drought, overgrazing, erosion, invasive species, extreme rainfall and land degradation. UNDP warns that climate change may deteriorate rangeland conditions and affect the quality of livestock and livestock products, while indigenous forests may shift toward semi-arid types under changing climate conditions. (UNDP Adaptation)

Land degradation increases both drought and flood risk. Degraded soils store less moisture, reduce crop productivity, lower grazing capacity and generate more runoff during intense rainfall. This threatens household food security, livestock systems, wool and mohair production, biodiversity, water quality, reservoir sedimentation and downstream infrastructure.

9. Health, WASH and social vulnerability

Climate change can worsen health risks through malnutrition, unsafe water, diarrhoeal disease, heat stress, respiratory problems from dust, disease outbreaks, injury during floods and storms, cold-related illness during snow events, and reduced access to health services during disasters. Dry spells in Lesotho have historically been associated with food shortages, famine, disease epidemics, invasive plants, destructive insects, dust bowls and erosion processes. (UNDP Adaptation)

The most vulnerable groups include subsistence farmers, livestock keepers, herders in mountain areas, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, people with chronic illness, poor rural households, informal urban households, and communities living in drought-prone, flood-prone, snow-prone or erosion-prone areas. Vulnerability is highest where hazard exposure overlaps with poverty, degraded land, limited irrigation, weak roads, water insecurity, low savings, poor market access and limited early-warning reach.

10. Sector-specific vulnerability summary

11. Priority resilience needs

Lesotho’s resilience agenda should prioritize drought early warning, impact-based forecasting, water-security planning, integrated catchment management, rangeland restoration, climate-resilient agriculture, livestock-risk management, flood-risk reduction, snow and cold-weather preparedness, climate-health surveillance, disaster risk financing and shock-responsive social protection.

The powers and functions of the Lesotho Defence Force (LDF) and National Security Service (NSS) are determined by law as specified in the Constitution, the Lesotho Defence Force Act of 1996 and the National Security Act of 1998. All concerned players are expected to operate strictly within these parameters.

November 5, 2024 — The Disaster Management Authority (DMA), in collaboration with the World Food Programme (WFP), will host a National Dialogue on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Urban Preparedness and Response. This event is scheduled for November 7th and 8th, 2024, at the Manthabiseng Convention Center.

DMA’s Chief Executive Officer, Mr Reatile Elias, explained that the dialogue aims to assess the contributions of key stakeholders in disaster risk reduction efforts and strategies. The focus will be on evaluating the readiness of Lesotho’s urban areas to effectively respond to and manage disaster situations.

Additionally, in partnership with World Vision Lesotho, DMA will celebrate the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction (IDRR) on November 13th at Ha Khoeli Primary School in Koro-Koro.

(By K. Mafereka, Photos by R. Thahanyane)

https://www.defence.gov.ls/documents#