Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Timor-Leste
Timor-Leste is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its mountainous terrain, steep catchments, fragile soils, short river systems, exposed coastal settlements, dependence on rainfed agriculture, limited infrastructure resilience, and high sensitivity to rainfall variability. The country faces recurrent risks from floods, flash floods, landslides, droughts, soil erosion, tropical cyclones and storms, earthquakes, tsunamis, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, water scarcity, wildfires, and climate-sensitive health risks. The World Bank’s 2025 Climate Risk Country Profile identifies Timor-Leste as highly vulnerable to natural hazards including droughts, floods, landslides, and soil erosion. (Climate Change Knowledge Portal)
Timor-Leste is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its mountainous terrain, steep catchments, fragile soils, short river systems, exposed coastal settlements, dependence on rainfed agriculture, limited infrastructure resilience, and high sensitivity to rainfall variability. The country faces recurrent risks from floods, flash floods, landslides, droughts, soil erosion, tropical cyclones and storms, earthquakes, tsunamis, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, water scarcity, wildfires, and climate-sensitive health impacts. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, more variable rainfall, heavier rainfall extremes, prolonged dry spells, increased erosion, landslides, local flooding, water insecurity, and coastal impacts. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, flood and landslide risk reduction, drought monitoring, climate-resilient agriculture, watershed restoration, coastal adaptation, seismic and tsunami preparedness, disaster risk financing, and locally led community preparedness is essential to reduce losses and protect Timor-Leste’s development gains.
1. Multi-hazard exposure
Timor-Leste’s main hazards include floods, landslides, drought, tropical cyclones, storms, earthquakes, tsunamis, soil erosion, and wildfires. CADRI describes Timor-Leste as highly prone to recurrent drought, flooding, and landslides, while also noting its exposure to earthquakes, tsunamis, and tropical cyclones because of its location near active tectonic boundaries. (CADRI)
The country’s risk profile is strongly influenced by its geography. Steep slopes, narrow valleys, shallow soils, short river basins, and intense rainfall can quickly generate flash floods, landslides, debris flows, erosion, road washouts, and damage to settlements and agricultural land.
2. Climate change as a risk multiplier
Climate change is increasing risks by altering rainfall and temperature patterns. Timor-Leste’s National Adaptation Programme of Action identified changes in rainfall and temperature patterns as cross-sector concerns because of their effects on drought, flooding, and landslides. (Adaptation UNDP)
Climate projections indicate that increased rainfall intensity could worsen soil erosion, landslides, and local flooding. UNDP notes that around one-third of Timor-Leste’s land is at high risk of erosion, while approximately half is at risk of degradation and fertility decline. (Adaptation UNDP)
3. Flood, landslide, and cyclone vulnerability
Floods and landslides are among the most damaging hazards in Timor-Leste. Tropical Cyclone Seroja in April 2021 brought 24 hours of torrential rain, causing flash floods, landslides, soil liquefaction, damaged infrastructure, agricultural losses, and fatalities. (World Bank Blogs)
The 2021 disaster affected all 13 municipalities, caused at least 44 fatalities, and damaged roads, bridges, water-supply infrastructure, schools, health facilities, rural assets, and agricultural areas. (GFDRR) UNDP’s Post-Disaster Needs Assessment estimated total damage and loss from the Easter flood at approximately US$307.7 million, with infrastructure accounting for the largest share. (UNDP)
4. Drought, water security, and agricultural vulnerability
Drought is a major concern because many rural households depend on rainfed agriculture, small-scale farming, livestock, springs, shallow groundwater, and seasonal water availability. Drought can reduce crop yields, damage household food security, lower livestock productivity, increase water-collection burdens, and deepen poverty.
Agriculture is highly exposed to erratic rainfall, delayed rains, drought, floods, soil erosion, landslides, pests, crop disease, and limited irrigation access. Climate shocks can affect maize, rice, coffee, vegetables, livestock, and local food systems, with the greatest impacts on smallholder farmers and subsistence households.
5. Coastal, seismic, and tsunami vulnerability
Timor-Leste’s coastal settlements and infrastructure are exposed to sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge, tidal flooding, saltwater intrusion, and tsunami risk. Coastal roads, ports, fisheries, tourism areas, urban expansion zones, and low-lying communities are particularly sensitive to coastal hazards.
The country also faces earthquake and tsunami risk because it lies near an active tectonic region. Earthquakes can trigger landslides and damage housing, roads, bridges, public buildings, water systems, and health facilities. Tsunami risk is especially important for coastal communities where evacuation routes, public awareness, and warning coverage may be limited. (CADRI)
6. Sector-specific vulnerability summary
| Sector | Main climate and multi-hazard risks |
|---|---|
| Agriculture and food security | Drought, erratic rainfall, floods, landslides, soil erosion, crop failure, pests |
| Water resources | Dry-season scarcity, flood contamination, spring and groundwater stress, damaged water systems |
| Transport infrastructure | Road washouts, bridge damage, landslides, slope failure, flood disruption |
| Coastal zones | Sea-level rise, erosion, tidal flooding, storm surge, saltwater intrusion, tsunami exposure |
| Urban settlements | Flash floods, drainage failure, landslides, heat stress, informal settlement exposure |
| Health | Waterborne disease after floods, heat stress, malnutrition, vector-borne disease risks |
| Ecosystems and land | Soil erosion, land degradation, forest loss, wildfire risk, reduced watershed stability |
| Public finance | Disaster recovery costs, infrastructure rehabilitation, pressure on limited budgets |
7. Social vulnerability
The most vulnerable groups include smallholder farmers, rural households, coastal communities, fishing communities, low-income urban residents, informal settlers, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, and communities living in flood-prone, landslide-prone, drought-prone, coastal, or seismic-risk areas.
Vulnerability is highest where hazard exposure overlaps with poverty, weak housing, limited savings, poor road access, low insurance coverage, limited irrigation, weak drainage, and restricted access to timely early warning and recovery finance.
8. Priority resilience needs
Timor-Leste’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, flood and landslide risk mapping, drought monitoring, climate-resilient agriculture, watershed restoration, soil and water conservation, resilient rural roads, coastal-zone management, seismic and tsunami preparedness, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation.
A practical resilience package should include:
| Priority area | Key actions |
|---|---|
| Early warning and anticipatory action | Impact-based warnings for floods, landslides, droughts, storms, heat, earthquakes, tsunamis, and coastal hazards |
| Flood and landslide risk reduction | Slope-risk mapping, drainage improvement, riverbank protection, road stabilization, safe settlement planning |
| Climate-resilient agriculture | Drought-tolerant crops, soil conservation, agroforestry, crop advisories, water harvesting |
| Water security | Spring protection, rainwater harvesting, groundwater monitoring, drought contingency planning |
| Coastal resilience | Coastal-risk mapping, mangrove and reef protection, erosion control, tsunami evacuation planning |
| Infrastructure resilience | Climate- and hazard-resilient roads, bridges, schools, clinics, water systems, and drainage networks |
| Risk financing and recovery | Contingency finance, shock-responsive social protection, resilient reconstruction, livelihood recovery support |
Disaster Response
Disasters impact on entire communities. The immediate effects include loss of life and damage to property and infrastructure, with the survivors (some of whom may have been injured in the disaster) traumatized by the experience, uncertain of the future and less able to provide for their own welfare, at least in the short term. They are very often left without adequate shelter, food, water and other necessities to sustain life. Rapid action is required to prevent further loss of life.
As an auxiliary to the Government, CVTL plays a key role as first-responder in saving lives and restoring livelihoods of people affected by disasters in Timor-Leste, including the provision of emergency water and sanitation, hygiene promotion, protection, shelter, non-food items and livelihoods support. National and branch staff and volunteers conducted needs assessments, distributed relief items, attended coordination meetings with other emergency response actors, and where necessary, assisted evacuation of at-risk communities. CVTL participated in national emergency management planning, including developing inter-agency contingency plans and standard operating procedures (SOPs).
Involvement in national disaster simulation exercises that took place three times between 2010 and 2014 and annual district-level simulations, which coincide with International Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Day, is key to the national and district DMC’ capacity to respond when required and deliver coherent and rapid response. The installation of four warehouses and nine shipping containers in the 13 district branches facilitates prepositioning of emergency stocks and equipment to ensure CVTL can respond where needed. In 2014, CVTL acquired two inflatable boats for maritime search-and-rescue, and has since conducted week-long training simulations, further strengthening response capacity.
In the five years to 2014, CVTL provided natural disaster emergency response in all 13 districts of Timor-Leste, assisting 17,600 people. Whilst most disaster events during this period were of a small to medium-scale and localised in nature, CVTL maintains their national and branch response capacity to respond to all-levels of disasters through their National Disaster Response Team (NDRT) and Branch Disaster Response Teams (BDRTs). CVTL conducts regular NDRT and BDRT trainings to ensure the readiness of 350 trained staff and volunteers. CVTL’s NDRT and BDRTs responded to a severe flooding that occurred in 2013 and affected 27,000 people in seven districts, following from which CVTL supported the community of Suai Loro with a nine-month recovery program.
Equipping local communities with the ability to use OpenStreetMap for decision-making and providing relevant information/attributes for disaster management. Training activities resulted in more than 47,000 buildings, 350 km of road networks, and 700 amenities added to OpenStreetMap.
Explore the project’s case story, featuring its continued impact years after its implementation in HOT’s Climate Resilience Case Studies (2025).
As part of the Open Mapping Hub Asia Pacific’s dedication to strengthening data usage and promoting disaster resilience throughout the Asia-Pacific Region, we are collaborating with local communities and partners in Timor-Leste to provide training on OSM for Disaster Management. In collaboration with World Vision Timor-Leste, Simile Timor-Leste, and other local agencies, the training program was launched with a virtual session, followed by an in-person session where several community members and INGOs participated.
AP Hub launched the virtual introductory session on 15 July 2022, and the in-person training on remote-mapping from 2-4 August, field mapping on 6-9 August, and concluded the training on 11 August with data analysis with InaSAFE, a free software that uses spatial data to produce post-disaster scenarios for better planning, preparedness and response activities.
The training started with an introduction to OSM, where participants started their OSM mapping journey, and also included intensive discussion among participants about data protection and privacy as well as defining form questions for the field survey in those areas. They also activated three tasking manager projects) to complete the mapping of building footprints and road networks.
The training also included a mapathon and field mapping of amenities and building information for disaster risk reduction.
During the mapathon and field-mapping, participants successfully mapped more than 10,000 buildings and 300 km of road networks. Similarly, during this field survey, they mapped hundreds of critical infrastructures in the survey areas (Baucau, Bobonaro, and Aileu) as well as continued the mapathon to complete the building footprints and road networks in those areas. At the end of the field survey, they mapped more than 47,000 buildings, 350 km of road networks, and 700 amenities.
The training was concluded with a session on data analysis using InaSAFE. Using Seroja Flood 2021 as a reference, the training aimed to introduce participants to other free and open-source tools for disaster impact scenarios and combine them with OpenStreetData in the analysis area.
Participants also tried to create the map for the analysis results from InaSAFE using the QGIS print layout.
Impact of the training
This project has not only improved the database and the baseline of OSM map data in Timor-Leste, which will benefit the local community in the country, especially those who need spatial data to support their work but also established a local OSM community. The local community is formed of diverse institutions and organizations that can support the sustainability of mapping activities and OSM data use in Timor-Leste by networking with each other and sharing their learnings and knowledge.
Map of the field survey in Bobonaro Municipality
Moreover, the community and government have increased awareness and knowledge of using OSM data. Therefore, we hope that they will now be able to use their knowledge and skills in open mapping by generating data to implement and advocate for socio-economic change.
Map of the field survey in Aileu Municipality
With the establishment of the OSM Timor Leste Community after this project, we expect that OSM contributors will arise from this project who will conduct regular OSM mapping activities and that the data generated by OSM will be used by various stakeholders and organizations for decision-making in the country.
Map of the field survey in Baucau Municipality
In our ongoing mission to support communities and organizations in the region in getting high-quality OSM map data for humanitarian response in the region, we are committed to developing their capacity through workshops, training, and field surveys using free and mapping tools which not only provide the baseline information on the map but also increasing their situational awareness and improving decision-making in disaster management. We are happy to support any forms of future open mapping and data use initiatives in your community.
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Please do not hesitate to contact us at harry.mahardika@hotosm.org if you would like any support on mapping for Disaster Risk Reduction.