Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Sudan
Sudan is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its arid and semi-arid climate, high dependence on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, recurrent droughts and floods, land degradation, water stress, conflict-driven displacement, fragile infrastructure, and limited institutional capacity. Major hazards include droughts, floods, flash floods, extreme heat, desertification, sand and dust storms, crop failure, livestock losses, water scarcity, disease outbreaks, and localized coastal risks along the Red Sea. Sudan’s National Adaptation Plan identifies recurrent droughts, food insecurity, water problems, increasing temperatures, floods, droughts, and health risks as major adaptation concerns. (UNFCCC)
Sudan is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its arid and semi-arid climate, dependence on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, fragile dryland ecosystems, recurrent droughts and floods, water scarcity, land degradation, conflict, displacement, food insecurity, and limited institutional capacity. The country faces major risks from droughts, flash floods, riverine floods, extreme heat, desertification, crop failure, livestock losses, water contamination, disease outbreaks, and climate-sensitive food-security shocks. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells, heavier rainfall extremes, reduced agricultural productivity, worsening water stress, and growing risks to health, livelihoods, infrastructure, and vulnerable communities. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, drought and flood risk management, climate-resilient agriculture, pastoralist resilience, water security, WASH systems, climate-health surveillance, disaster risk financing, shock-responsive social protection, and conflict-sensitive locally led adaptation is essential to reduce losses and protect Sudan’s vulnerable populations.
1. Multi-hazard exposure
Sudan’s risk profile is dominated by drought, flood, extreme heat, water scarcity, land degradation, and food-security shocks. The Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre reports that frequent droughts, floods, and rising temperatures threaten safe drinking water, food supply, shelter, health, and wellbeing in Sudan. Flooding is particularly common along the Nile and seasonal watercourses, while flash floods are becoming more frequent in exposed communities.
Drought is a chronic and recurrent hazard, especially in dryland areas where livelihoods depend on rainfall, pasture, and seasonal water availability. UNDP notes that nearly 70% of Sudan’s population lives in dryland areas, where crops, livestock, and water supplies are highly exposed to declining rainfall, rising temperatures, and repeated droughts. (UNDP)
2. Climate change as a conflict and fragility multiplier
Climate risk in Sudan is strongly compounded by conflict, displacement, economic crisis, damaged infrastructure, and restricted humanitarian access. Climate shocks affect food production, water access, livestock survival, rural incomes, and population movement; conflict then reduces people’s ability to prepare, cope, relocate safely, or recover. The Climate Centre highlights that Sudan’s heavy reliance on agriculture increases the likelihood of livelihood loss, food insecurity, displacement, and migration when agricultural production fails.
The humanitarian crisis makes climate vulnerability much more severe. FAO, WFP, and UNICEF warned in May 2026 that nearly 19.5 million people in Sudan were facing crisis levels of acute food insecurity or worse, while conflict, displacement, damaged infrastructure, disease outbreaks, and restricted access were worsening nutrition, water, sanitation, and health conditions. (World Food Programme)
3. Drought, water scarcity, and dryland vulnerability
Drought and water scarcity are among Sudan’s most critical climate risks. Rising temperatures increase evapotranspiration and reduce soil moisture, while reduced or unreliable rainfall affects groundwater recharge, seasonal streams, rainfed farming, and rangelands. The Climate Centre notes that agriculture accounts for a very large share of water withdrawals in Sudan, making water stress a direct threat to farming, livestock, and food production.
Dryland communities, subsistence farmers, and nomadic pastoralists are particularly vulnerable because their livelihoods are closely tied to land, water, and grazing resources. UNDP reports that droughts leave families with little time to recover between shocks and can force households to sell assets, migrate to cities, or adopt negative coping strategies. (UNDP)
4. Flood and flash-flood vulnerability
Flooding is a major recurrent hazard in Sudan, especially along the Nile, seasonal rivers, wadis, urban drainage systems, and low-lying settlements. Heavy rainfall can trigger river flooding, flash floods, waterlogging, road damage, crop losses, livestock deaths, displacement, and contamination of water sources. The Climate Centre notes that floods in 2020 and 2021 damaged healthcare facilities and sanitation infrastructure, increasing disease risks in an already weakened public-health system.
Flood risk is especially serious in areas where conflict and displacement have pushed people into temporary shelters, informal settlements, or poorly serviced areas with weak drainage and limited access to safe water. In such settings, flooding can rapidly become a WASH, health, shelter, food-security, and protection crisis.
5. Agriculture, pastoralism, and food-security vulnerability
Agriculture and pastoralism are central to Sudan’s climate vulnerability. Rainfed farming systems are exposed to drought, delayed rains, shortened growing seasons, heat stress, pests, floods, and reduced soil fertility. Pastoral systems are affected by pasture degradation, water scarcity, livestock disease, blocked migration routes, and competition over shrinking grazing resources. Sudan’s NAP identifies increasing drought episodes, prolonged dry spells, reduced growing seasons, lower agricultural productivity, food insecurity, internal migration, and social unrest as key climate-related risks. (UNFCCC)
Key livelihood vulnerabilities include:
| Sector | Main climate and multi-hazard risks |
|---|---|
| Rainfed agriculture | Drought, erratic rainfall, shortened growing seasons, heat stress, crop failure |
| Pastoralism | Pasture loss, water scarcity, livestock disease, heat stress, mobility constraints |
| Irrigated agriculture | Flood damage, water shortage, sedimentation, high evaporation, infrastructure damage |
| Food systems | Crop losses, food price inflation, import dependence, market disruption |
| Rural livelihoods | Asset depletion, migration, debt, weakened recovery capacity |
| Women farmers and pastoral households | Lower access to land, credit, services, decision-making, and adaptation support |
6. Health, WASH, and disease vulnerability
Climate change is increasing Sudan’s health risks through heat stress, poor water quality, flood contamination, drought-related water scarcity, malnutrition, and climate-sensitive diseases. The Climate Centre reports that floods and warming temperatures increase risks from vector-borne and waterborne diseases, including malaria, dengue, chikungunya, cholera, Rift Valley fever, yellow fever, and diarrheal diseases.
The crisis is compounded by damaged services. FAO, WFP, and UNICEF reported in 2026 that around 40% of health facilities were non-functional, while about 17 million people lacked access to safe drinking water and 24 million lacked adequate sanitation, creating a severe public-health and nutrition risk environment. (World Food Programme)
7. Sector-specific vulnerability summary
| Sector | Main climate and multi-hazard risks |
|---|---|
| Agriculture and food security | Drought, erratic rainfall, floods, crop failure, pests, heat stress, market disruption |
| Pastoralism and livestock | Water scarcity, pasture degradation, livestock disease, heat stress, conflict over resources |
| Water resources and WASH | Reduced availability, groundwater stress, flood contamination, sanitation breakdown |
| Health and nutrition | Malnutrition, malaria, cholera, dengue, diarrheal disease, heat stress, damaged health services |
| Settlements and shelter | Flood damage, poor drainage, heat exposure, displacement-site vulnerability |
| Infrastructure | Flooded roads, damaged bridges, water-system disruption, energy and market-access constraints |
| Dryland ecosystems | Desertification, land degradation, erosion, declining soil moisture, rangeland stress |
| Public finance and governance | Disaster-response costs, limited institutional capacity, conflict-disrupted services |
8. Social vulnerability
The most vulnerable groups include internally displaced people, conflict-affected communities, subsistence farmers, pastoralists, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, poor urban households, rural dryland communities, and people living in flood-prone or drought-prone areas. Vulnerability is highest where climate exposure overlaps with poverty, displacement, weak services, limited savings, insecure access to land and water, weak early warning, and restricted humanitarian access.
9. Priority resilience needs
Sudan’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, drought monitoring, flood forecasting, impact-based forecasting, climate-resilient agriculture, pastoralist livelihood protection, water harvesting, groundwater management, WASH resilience, rangeland restoration, conflict-sensitive natural-resource governance, climate-health surveillance, disaster risk financing, and shock-responsive social protection.
A practical resilience package should include:
| Priority area | Key actions |
|---|---|
| Early warning and anticipatory action | Impact-based warnings for drought, floods, heat, disease outbreaks, sandstorms, and food-security shocks |
| Drought and water security | Water harvesting, groundwater recharge, drought contingency planning, water-point rehabilitation |
| Climate-resilient agriculture | Drought-tolerant crops, agro-climate advisories, seed support, soil and water conservation |
| Pastoralist resilience | Rangeland restoration, livestock vaccination, fodder systems, mobility-route protection |
| Flood-risk management | Nile and wadi flood forecasting, drainage improvement, flood-safe shelters, community preparedness |
| Health and WASH resilience | Safe water systems, flood-safe sanitation, cholera and malaria surveillance, heat-health preparedness |
| Social protection | Scalable cash support, livelihood recovery, support for displaced and famine-risk households |
| Risk governance | Climate-risk data systems, local disaster committees, conflict-sensitive resource management |
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Services Offered by MHEWC
- Conduct country-level institutional and technical assessments of sector ministries and affiliated climate-vulnerable departments, including Disaster Management, Climate Change, Agriculture, Water Resources, Livestock, Fisheries, Agroforestry, Environment and Forest, Tourism, Health, Public Infrastructure, Communication, and other relevant sectors.
- Assess national climate risk governance systems by reviewing relevant local government and planning institutions, including ministries responsible for local government, decentralized local authorities, development planning, economy and finance, and blue economy. This will include identifying institutional arrangements, coordination mechanisms, policy gaps, and operational capacities related to climate risk management, multi-hazard disaster risk governance, and resilience planning.
- Develop robust strategies and support the design and implementation of informed climate risk management, disaster risk governance, and multi-hazard risk reduction systems.
- Design and implement end-to-end Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS), including the installation and integration of Automated Weather Stations (AWS), hybrid weather and hazard monitoring systems, real-time sensor-based data ingestion, data-driven early warning systems, weather nowcasting services, hazard nowcasting services, and hazard event situation update mechanisms.
- Develop methodologies, tools, guidelines, frameworks, and action plans for Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF), Forecast-Based Early Action, anticipatory action services, forecast-based emergency preparedness and response management systems, Forecast-Based Financing (FbF) mobilization, and Early Action Protocol development.
- Develop forecast-based Decision Support System (DSS)-supported Standing Orders on Disaster (SoD), Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), and operational protocols for preparedness, response, and anticipatory action.
- Design, implement, and operationalize fully automated systems for hazard detection, monitoring, prediction, multi-hazard analysis, and Disaster Emergency Operations Center (EOC) management.
- Conduct climate and multi-hazard risk and vulnerability assessments to support evidence-based decision-making, sector planning, and resilience investment.
- Design and implement geospatial platform-driven Decision Support Systems for disaster risk governance, climate risk management, and multi-hazard early warning operations.
- Develop GIS maps, spatial databases, risk information systems, and analytical tools to support local governments and productive sectors in risk-informed planning, budgeting, investment prioritization, and climate-resilient development.