Rwanda

Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Rwanda

Rwanda is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks, particularly floods, landslides, droughts, windstorms, soil erosion, earthquakes, heat stress, water scarcity, and agriculture-related climate shocks. Its mountainous topography, steep cultivated slopes, high population density, land degradation, rainfed farming systems, rapid urbanization, and settlement expansion in hazard-prone areas increase exposure and vulnerability. Climate change is expected to intensify these risks through rising temperatures, more frequent and intense heavy rainfall, prolonged dry spells, increased erosion, more severe flooding and landslides, and growing pressure on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, health, ecosystems, and vulnerable rural and urban communities.

Rwanda is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its steep hilly terrain, high population density, rainfed agriculture, land pressure, fragile slopes, and settlement expansion in hazard-prone areas. The country faces recurrent risks from floods, landslides, droughts, windstorms, soil erosion, earthquakes, heat stress, water scarcity, and ecosystem degradation. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, more frequent and intense heavy rainfall, prolonged dry spells, increased erosion, flooding, landslides, and growing pressure on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, health, ecosystems, and vulnerable communities. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, flood and landslide risk reduction, drought monitoring, climate-smart agriculture, watershed restoration, risk-informed land-use planning, resilient infrastructure, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation is essential to reduce losses and protect Rwanda’s development gains.

Rwanda is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks because of its steep hilly terrain, high population density, rainfed agriculture, fragile slopes, riverine systems, land pressure, rapid urbanization, and dependence on climate-sensitive livelihoods. Unlike coastal countries, Rwanda is not exposed to cyclones or sea-level rise; however, it faces serious risks from floods, landslides, droughts, windstorms, soil erosion, earthquakes, heat stress, crop losses, water stress, and ecosystem degradation. Rwanda’s National Risk Atlas focuses on five main hazards: drought, landslide, flood, earthquake, and windstorms. (GFDRR)

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Rwanda’s disaster-risk profile is dominated by floods, landslides, droughts, windstorms, and earthquakes. Floods and landslides are particularly severe in steep, densely settled, and highly cultivated areas, especially where intense rainfall interacts with slope instability, soil erosion, deforestation, poor drainage, and settlement in exposed locations. UNDRR’s Rwanda disaster-risk profile provides a probabilistic assessment of flood and drought risk under current and future climate scenarios. (UNDRR)

Rwanda’s official climate-change portal notes that floods have repeatedly affected the country, especially the Western Province, and that impacts include infrastructure damage, deaths and injuries, landslides, agricultural degradation, and environmental degradation. (Climate Change Portal)

2. Climate change as a risk multiplier

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of climate-related hazards in Rwanda. Rwanda’s downscaled climate projections warn that increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall will increase erosion, flooding, and landslides. (Climate Change Portal)

The World Bank reported in 2025 that Rwanda faces increasing vulnerability to climate-related disasters, with more than 80% of disaster impacts linked to climate change. It also noted that floods, landslides, and droughts have become more frequent and severe since the early 2000s. (World Bank)

3. Flood and landslide vulnerability

Floods and landslides are among Rwanda’s most damaging hazards. The risk is highest where heavy rainfall coincides with steep slopes, degraded catchments, informal or poorly planned settlements, exposed roads, fragile drainage systems, and intensive cultivation on hillsides.

The National Risk Atlas indicates that 40% of Rwanda’s population has moderate to very high susceptibility to landslides, while 43% of health facilities face high landslide susceptibility. (gsdrc.org)

The severity of this risk was demonstrated in May 2023, when floods and landslides caused 131 fatalities, 104 injuries, left more than 18,000 people homeless, and generated physical damages and economic losses estimated at US$187 million. (World Bank)

4. Drought and agricultural vulnerability

Drought is a major climate risk, especially in Rwanda’s eastern and south-eastern regions, where rainfall variability, dry spells, land degradation, and water stress affect agriculture and livestock. Climate profiles identify drought as mainly affecting the east of the country, while floods are more concentrated in western and central-northern areas. (PreventionWeb)

Agriculture is highly exposed because many households depend on rainfed crops, small landholdings, hillside cultivation, livestock, and natural resources. Drought, rainfall variability, soil erosion, pests, and reduced soil moisture can affect food security, rural income, nutrition, and poverty reduction.

5. Sector-specific vulnerabilities

6. Urban and infrastructure vulnerability

Urban areas, including Kigali and secondary cities, face increasing risks from flash flooding, stormwater drainage failure, landslides, erosion, and settlement expansion on steep or unstable land. Infrastructure such as roads, bridges, culverts, schools, health facilities, water systems, and housing is exposed to rainfall-triggered hazards. Rwanda’s climate-change publications include work on flood-risk reduction in urban sub-catchments and landslide-risk assessment in urban areas, showing the importance of urban resilience planning. (Climate Change Portal)

7. Social vulnerability

The most vulnerable groups include smallholder farmers, households cultivating steep slopes, low-income urban residents, informal settlers, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, rural communities in drought-prone areas, and communities living near rivers, wetlands, unstable slopes, or landslide-prone zones.

Vulnerability is highest where climate exposure overlaps with poverty, limited savings, small landholdings, weak housing, poor road access, limited insurance coverage, and low access to timely early warning and recovery finance.

8. Priority resilience needs

Rwanda’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting, flood and landslide risk mapping, drought monitoring, climate-smart agriculture, watershed restoration, soil and water conservation, slope stabilization, resilient roads and drainage systems, risk-informed land-use planning, urban flood management, disaster risk financing, and community-based preparedness.

A practical resilience package for Rwanda should include:

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