Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Yemen

Yemen is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks because of its arid climate, extreme water scarcity, dependence on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, fragile coastal and mountain settlements, conflict-damaged infrastructure, poverty, displacement, and weak institutional capacity. The country faces recurrent risks from droughts, extreme heat, flash floods, storms, landslides, coastal flooding, sea-level rise, land degradation, crop losses, fisheries decline, water scarcity, and climate-sensitive disease outbreaks. Climate change is intensifying these vulnerabilities through erratic rainfall, longer dry periods, more destructive floods, rising temperatures, declining water security, reduced agricultural productivity, infrastructure damage, health risks, and deeper food insecurity. Strengthening multi-hazard early warning systems, water security, climate-smart agriculture, flood-risk management, coastal resilience, resilient health and WASH systems, disaster risk financing, and locally led adaptation is essential to reduce losses and protect Yemen’s vulnerable communities.

Yemen is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its arid and semi-arid climate, extreme water scarcity, fragile rural livelihoods, rainfed agriculture, coastal exposure, weak infrastructure, conflict-related institutional fragility, poverty, displacement, and limited adaptive capacity. The country faces recurrent risks from droughts, extreme heat, flash floods, coastal flooding, sea-level rise, erratic rainfall, storms, landslides, land degradation, water scarcity, crop losses, livestock stress, fisheries decline, and climate-sensitive disease outbreaks. Yemen’s NAPA identifies drought, extreme flooding, pests, disease outbreaks, rainfall-pattern changes, increased storm frequency and severity, and sea-level rise as major climate-related concerns. (UNDP Adaptation)

https://yemen.unfpa.org/en/news/rapid-response-mechanism-yemens-emergency-lifeline-under-threat?

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Yemen’s climate-risk profile is dominated by water extremes: too little water for much of the year, and sudden destructive rainfall during intense storm or flood events. The World Bank reports that around 50% of Yemen’s population is exposed to at least one significant climate hazard, including extreme heat, drought, or flooding. These risks disproportionately affect marginalized communities and intensify food insecurity and poverty. (World Bank)

Flash floods are a major recurrent hazard, especially in wadis, mountain catchments, urban areas with weak drainage, displacement sites, and low-lying coastal zones. Heavy rainfall in August 2024 caused severe flooding in Yemen, with Reuters reporting 40 deaths, five people missing, more than 500 households evacuated in Hodeidah, and blocked roads affecting humanitarian access. (Reuters)

2. Climate change as a fragility multiplier

Climate change in Yemen does not operate in isolation; it interacts with conflict, economic contraction, damaged infrastructure, weak governance, poverty, and displacement. Yemen’s NDC 3.0 Vision states that prolonged conflict has eroded institutions, disrupted essential services, and left more than 80% of the population below the poverty line. It also identifies recurrent droughts, floods, and heatwaves as drivers of land, water, and livelihood degradation. (UNFCCC)

The economic implications are severe. The World Bank estimates that Yemen’s annual GDP could decline by an average of 3.9% by 2040 under pessimistic climate scenarios, largely due to lower agricultural productivity and infrastructure damage. More frequent intense rainfall, combined with longer dry periods, could generate substantial development losses without adaptation investment. (World Bank)

3. Water scarcity and drought vulnerability

Water scarcity is Yemen’s most critical climate and development vulnerability. Yemen is already one of the world’s most water-stressed countries, and climate change is worsening this through recurrent droughts, erratic rainfall, destructive floods, aquifer depletion, poor water governance, and conflict-related damage to water infrastructure. Yemen’s NDC 3.0 Vision identifies extreme water scarcity, drought, flood, and heat stress as major threats to land, infrastructure, and livelihoods. (UNFCCC)

Drought affects rural households, rainfed farmers, pastoralists, livestock systems, groundwater-dependent communities, and displaced populations. UNDP notes that Yemen’s economy depends heavily on natural resources, more than half of agriculture is rainfed, and rising drought and flood risks create acute stress on water resources. (UNDP Adaptation)

4. Agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods

Agriculture and pastoralism are highly climate-sensitive in Yemen. Rainfall variability, drought, flash floods, land degradation, pests, livestock disease, water scarcity, and loss of irrigation infrastructure directly affect crop production, food prices, household income, nutrition, and rural survival strategies. Yemen’s NAPA states that more than 75% of the population was rural-based and engaged in farming and pastoralism, making livelihoods highly dependent on favorable climatic conditions. (UNDP Adaptation)

The World Bank highlights that climate-smart agriculture, soil conservation, and improved water management could increase yields under favorable future climate scenarios, but without adaptation, agricultural productivity and food security will remain highly exposed. (World Bank)

5. Coastal zones and fisheries vulnerability

Yemen’s coastal zones along the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea are vulnerable to sea-level rise, coastal flooding, storm surge, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, marine ecosystem degradation, and damage to ports, roads, fisheries infrastructure, and coastal settlements. UNDP identifies water, agriculture, health, and coastal zones as Yemen’s most climate-vulnerable priority sectors under the National Adaptation Plan process. (UNDP)

Fisheries are also at risk. The World Bank reports that Yemen’s fisheries sector, a critical livelihood source for many coastal communities, could face a potential decline of up to 23% in fish stocks due to rising sea temperatures and altered marine ecosystems. (World Bank)

6. Health and social vulnerability

Climate change is increasing Yemen’s health risks through heat stress, unsafe water, poor sanitation, flood contamination, vector-borne disease, waterborne disease, malnutrition, and disrupted health services. Yemen’s NDC 3.0 Vision notes that rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and degraded water systems have intensified water- and vector-borne diseases. It also states that more than half of Yemen’s health facilities operate below capacity, with many located in flood- or heat-prone areas. (UNFCCC)

The most vulnerable groups include internally displaced people, women, children, youth, older persons, people with disabilities, poor rural households, rainfed farmers, pastoralists, fishing communities, informal urban settlers, and communities living in flood-prone wadis, drought-prone drylands, coastal zones, or damaged urban areas.

Sector-specific vulnerability summary

Priority resilience needs

Yemen’s resilience agenda should prioritize multi-hazard early warning systems, flash-flood forecasting, drought monitoring, water-resource management, climate-smart agriculture, rainwater harvesting, groundwater recharge, watershed restoration, coastal-zone protection, resilient health facilities, climate-resilient WASH systems, disaster risk financing, anticipatory action, and conflict-sensitive locally led adaptation.

A practical resilience package for Yemen should include:

Yemen is highly exposed to a number of natural hazards (floods, droughts, desertification, and earthquakes), with floods being the most recurrent. Yemen’s approach to managing disasters in the past has been mostly reactive, focused on post-disaster relief and recovery activities. Recently, with help from the international community, Yemen has taken important steps to improve the country’s resilience and to move from ex-post disaster relief to ex-ante preparedness and risk reduction.

In recent years, Yemen has advanced its disaster risk management (DRM) agenda. Nation-wide risk and
water-management studies provided the basis for designing DRM planning and mitigation measures. As a result, there is now a better understanding of the country’s main disaster risks as well as a stronger determination by government officials to work more collaboratively with partners and donors. In addition, national DRM stakeholders have completed disaster risk mapping and risk-reducing programs for key sectors such as food

Climate and Multi-Hazard,and Disaster Risk-Related Information

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