Climate risk and vulnerabilities of Eswatini / Swaziland

Eswatini / Swaziland is highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks due to its variable subtropical climate, recurrent droughts, erratic rainfall, seasonal floods, high-intensity storms, hailstorms, extreme temperatures, water stress, dependence on rainfed subsistence agriculture, rural poverty, degraded catchments and exposure of infrastructure, ecosystems, health and livelihoods to repeated shocks. The country faces major risks from drought, water scarcity, crop failure, livestock losses, food insecurity, reduced streamflow, flash floods, storm damage, wildfires, ecosystem degradation, public-health risks and infrastructure disruption. Climate change is expected to intensify these vulnerabilities through rising temperatures, more frequent dry spells, reduced water availability, heavier localized rainfall events, declining crop yields, biodiversity loss, higher wildfire risk and growing pressure on food security, health, water systems, infrastructure and vulnerable rural communities. Strengthening drought early warning, impact-based forecasting, climate-resilient agriculture, water-resource management, flood-risk reduction, resilient infrastructure, wildfire preparedness, ecosystem restoration, health-system resilience, disaster risk financing and shock-responsive social protection is essential to reduce losses and protect Eswatini’s development gains.

Eswatini, formerly Swaziland, is a small, landlocked and mountainous country in Southern Africa. It is highly vulnerable to climate change and multi-hazard risks because of its variable subtropical climate, recurrent droughts, seasonal floods, high-intensity storms, hailstorms, extreme temperatures, water stress, dependence on rainfed agriculture, rural poverty, and exposure of infrastructure, health, food systems, ecosystems and livelihoods to climate shocks. Around 70% of the population relies on subsistence farming, making drought, rainfall variability and crop failure major development risks. (Anticipation Hub)

1. Multi-hazard exposure

Eswatini’s major climate and disaster risks include droughts, floods, high-intensity storms, extreme temperatures, lightning, hailstorms, forest fires and epidemic disease outbreaks. The country is affected by ENSO variability: El Niño years increase drought risk, while La Niña years can increase the likelihood of above-average rainfall and flooding across Southern Africa. (Anticipation Hub)

The risk profile differs across agro-ecological zones. The Highveld and Middleveld are exposed to intense rainfall, flash floods, landslides, hailstorms, infrastructure damage and erosion. The Lowveld and Lubombo areas are more drought-prone and face recurrent water shortages, crop stress, livestock losses, heat stress, rangeland degradation and food insecurity. Urban centres such as Mbabane and Manzini face stormwater drainage problems, road damage, flooding and service disruption during extreme rainfall events.

2. Climate change as a development risk multiplier

Climate change is a major development risk for Eswatini because it directly affects agriculture, water resources, health, infrastructure, ecosystems, biodiversity, energy reliability, rural livelihoods and public finance. Eswatini’s Adaptation Communication identifies five priority adaptation sectors: water, ecosystems and biodiversity, health, infrastructure and agriculture. It also emphasizes institutional capacity, legal and policy frameworks, monitoring and reporting, climate finance, Indigenous and traditional knowledge systems, and private-sector engagement as key requirements for adaptation implementation.

Eswatini’s 2025 NDC 3.0 highlights the severe socio-economic risks of climate change, especially in rural areas prone to droughts and floods. It reports persistent poverty, food insecurity affecting 20–30% of the population, and climate shocks that worsen inequality and undermine social-protection efforts.

3. Drought, water scarcity and rural livelihood vulnerability

Drought is one of Eswatini’s most damaging hazards. Although the country has a subtropical climate with annual rainfall ranging from about 400–1,500 mm, even a modest reduction in normal rainfall can trigger water shortages. The 2015/16 El Niño-induced drought caused about a 30% decline in crop production, very low water levels in Hawane Dam, drying of rural boreholes, school closures, health and food-security impacts, more than 80,000 cattle deaths, and total economic losses of about E3.8 billion, equivalent to about 7% of GDP. (World Bank)

Drought vulnerability is highest among smallholder farmers, livestock keepers, rural poor households, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities and households with limited access to irrigation, savings, livestock assets, water storage and social protection. Drought also creates cascading impacts: water shortages reduce household hygiene, crop losses reduce food availability, livestock deaths reduce household wealth, and reduced harvests increase dependence on markets and food assistance.

4. Agriculture, livestock and food-security vulnerability

Agriculture is central to livelihoods and national resilience, but it is highly climate-sensitive. Eswatini’s staple maize production is especially exposed to drought, delayed rains, dry spells, heat, hailstorms and floods. The 2015/16 drought caused a 40% drop in staple maize production, while the 2024–2025 El Niño event caused prolonged drought, reduced annual rainfall from 850 mm to 650 mm, and sharply increased hailstorm incidents, according to FAO. (Anticipation Hub) (FAOHome)

Climate-resilient agriculture in Eswatini therefore requires improved seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasting, agro-meteorological advisories, drought-tolerant seeds, protected cultivation, efficient irrigation, rainwater harvesting, soil and water conservation, pest surveillance, livestock water planning and forecast-based anticipatory action.

5. Flood, storm, hailstorm and infrastructure vulnerability

Floods and high-intensity storms are recurrent hazards in Eswatini. Heavy rainfall can damage roads, bridges, drainage systems, houses, schools, clinics, markets, power infrastructure, irrigation systems and rural access routes. Eswatini’s NDC 3.0 reports that Cyclone Eloise in January 2021 caused widespread damage to roads, bridges and urban drainage systems, particularly in Highveld areas, with flooding in commercial centres in Mbabane and power outages exposing weaknesses in infrastructure.

Flash floods and storms are becoming more damaging where intense rainfall interacts with poor drainage, settlement expansion, degraded catchments, steep slopes, weak road infrastructure and limited maintenance. Floods can also contaminate drinking-water sources, damage sanitation systems, disrupt education and health services, and isolate rural communities.

6. Water resources, catchments and hydropower vulnerability

Water is a priority adaptation sector for Eswatini. Climate-change assessments project reduced streamflow, and Eswatini’s Adaptation Communication reports that a 2016 water-sector vulnerability assessment projected river streamflow could decrease by 40% by 2050 due to climate change. Rainfall variability and invasive alien species are also accelerating stream drying.

Water stress affects rural drinking-water supply, irrigation, livestock, ecosystems, sanitation, hydropower, industry and urban services. Priority adaptation measures identified for the water sector include water-storage infrastructure, improved water governance, streamflow observation, groundwater management, water-use efficiency, catchment management, alien invasive plant control, and improved early warning and risk management.

7. Heat, wildfire and health vulnerability

Rising temperatures and dry spells increase the risk of heat stress, dehydration, reduced labour productivity, livestock stress, crop losses and wildfires. Eswatini’s NDC 3.0 reports that increased temperatures and dry spells are intensifying wildfire risk, with 866 wildfire cases recorded between July and August 2024.

Climate change can also worsen health risks through unsafe water, diarrhoeal disease, malnutrition, vector-sensitive disease risks, heat-related illness, disaster injuries and disruption of health services. Floods can contaminate water and sanitation systems, while drought reduces water availability, hygiene practices and household food security.

8. Ecosystems, biodiversity and land degradation

Eswatini’s ecosystems provide important services for agriculture, water regulation, grazing, biodiversity, tourism and rural livelihoods. Climate change contributes to biome shifts, habitat loss, habitat fragmentation, species loss and ecosystem degradation. The Adaptation Communication notes that ecosystem deterioration has negatively affected cultural, economic and social practices, especially among rural poor households that depend on subsistence farming.

Land degradation and catchment deterioration increase both drought and flood risk. Degraded soils hold less moisture during dry periods and generate more runoff during intense rainfall. This creates a reinforcing cycle of drought stress, erosion, declining soil fertility, reduced crop productivity and higher flood damage.

9. Sector-specific vulnerability summary

10. Social vulnerability

The most vulnerable groups include smallholder farmers, subsistence farming households, livestock keepers, women-headed households, children, older persons, people with disabilities, people with chronic illnesses, low-income rural households, informal urban households and communities living in drought-prone, flood-prone, storm-prone or water-stressed areas.

Vulnerability is highest where climate exposure overlaps with poverty, food insecurity, limited irrigation, poor access to safe water, weak roads, inadequate drainage, low savings, weak insurance coverage and limited access to timely early warning. Women, children and people in vulnerable situations were disproportionately affected during the 2015/16 drought. (World Bank)

11. Priority resilience needs

Eswatini’s resilience agenda should prioritize drought early warning, impact-based forecasting, climate-resilient agriculture, water-resource management, flood-risk reduction, resilient infrastructure, wildfire management, health-system resilience, ecosystem restoration, biodiversity protection, climate finance and shock-responsive social protection.